Something feels off: Buffett & Burry are digging trenches while the media screams "Soft Landing"

[BellaJones]

Is anyone else feeling a massive disconnect between what the talking heads on TV are saying and what the "smart money" is actually doing?

I’ve been digging through the recent filings (13Fs) that just dropped for Q3/Q4, and the actions of the big guys don't match the "economy is booming" narrative we're being fed.

Look at Michael Burry (The Big Short guy). He’s historically been the canary in the coal mine. In his latest moves, he basically cleared out a huge chunk of his portfolio. He’s not buying the AI hype or the tech rally. Instead, he’s buying debt collectors (student loans) and boring healthcare plays. That screams "defensive" to me. He’s betting on people being broke and needing medical care.

Then you have Buffett. Berkshire is sitting on a historic mountain of cash. He trimmed Apple, he trimmed the banks. If the economy was about to roar in 2026, wouldn't the greatest investor of all time be buying with both hands? Instead, he’s sitting on the sidelines, waiting.

To me, this looks like they are preparing for a rug pull. The media keeps telling us inflation is whipped and a "Soft Landing" is here, but the guys with the best data in the world are hunkering down for a storm.

Are you guys buying this rally, or are you positioning defensively like the old guard? I feel like the retail investor is being set up to be the bagholder again.

Thoughts?

 

[shockedcanadian]

Is anyone else feeling a massive disconnect between what the talking heads on TV are saying and what the "smart money" is actually doing?

I’ve been digging through the recent filings (13Fs) that just dropped for Q3/Q4, and the actions of the big guys don't match the "economy is booming" narrative we're being fed.

Look at Michael Burry (The Big Short guy). He’s historically been the canary in the coal mine. In his latest moves, he basically cleared out a huge chunk of his portfolio. He’s not buying the AI hype or the tech rally. Instead, he’s buying debt collectors (student loans) and boring healthcare plays. That screams "defensive" to me. He’s betting on people being broke and needing medical care.

Then you have Buffett. Berkshire is sitting on a historic mountain of cash. He trimmed Apple, he trimmed the banks. If the economy was about to roar in 2026, wouldn't the greatest investor of all time be buying with both hands? Instead, he’s sitting on the sidelines, waiting.

To me, this looks like they are preparing for a rug pull. The media keeps telling us inflation is whipped and a "Soft Landing" is here, but the guys with the best data in the world are hunkering down for a storm.

Are you guys buying this rally, or are you positioning defensively like the old guard? I feel like the retail investor is being set up to be the bagholder again.

Thoughts?

If one looks at the fundamentals of companies and debt, the world has probably been sitting on a bubble for 20 yesrs. I wonder if bitcoin is a global government leveraged way to ensure solvency of the state in the event a global meltdown occurs.

 

[kyzr]

"Smart Money" has been wrong since Trump was elected. There is no recession coming soon.

 

[1srelluc]

Even Burry was too early by a good year in predicting the housing crash.

Let's take investing in AI....Way too much debt for me to be interested in buying now. A hold if you have some at best, not enough monetization.

Staples (everyday things) are doing OK, P&C was up around 3% yesterday.

Meh, I like our chances.