Canada and mexico are not the enemy, china not so much, india more so
United States
United States
- Pre-2025 Average: Before recent changes, the U.S. had one of the lowest trade-weighted average tariff rates globally, estimated at 2.0% to 2.5% (based on World Bank data for 2023 and posts on X from early 2025). This reflected free trade agreements like the USMCA (0% on most goods from Canada and Mexico) and low baseline rates under the Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS).
- Post-February 2025 Changes:
- China: A 10% tariff on all Chinese imports took effect on February 4, 2025, adding to existing Section 301 tariffs (7.5%-25% on many goods). The de minimis exemption (shipments under $800) was also ended for China, increasing effective costs.
- Canada and Mexico: Proposed 25% tariffs on nearly all imports (10% on Canadian energy like oil) were announced February 1, 2025, but delayed to March 4, 2025, after negotiations. Pre-delay, most goods were duty-free under USMCA.
- General Impact: These new tariffs significantly raise the effective rate. Posts on X (e.g.,
@ericadyork
, Feb 18) and analyses (e.g., Tax Foundation) suggest the trade-weighted average could rise to 4%-6% or higher if fully implemented, depending on retaliation and final scope.
- Current Estimate: With China tariffs active and Canada/Mexico pending, the U.S. average is likely around 3%-4%, but this is transitional until March 4 rulings.
- General Rate: Canada’s trade-weighted average tariff rate was 3.1% in 2023 (per X posts and WTO data), reflecting low duties under USMCA (0% on most U.S./Mexico goods) and modest rates (3%-5%) on others (e.g., 4.7% on some Chinese imports).
- Post-2025: Canada paused retaliatory 25% tariffs on $107 billion of U.S. goods (e.g., appliances, wine) after the U.S. delay to March 4. If U.S. tariffs proceed, Canada’s effective rate on U.S. imports could jump, but the baseline average remains 3%-4% absent retaliation.
- General Rate: Mexico’s trade-weighted average was 4.3% in 2023 (X posts, WTO), with 0% on most U.S./Canada goods under USMCA and higher rates (e.g., 15% on some non-NAFTA imports like China).
- Post-2025: Mexico delayed retaliation after the U.S. paused its 25% tariff (announced Feb 1, effective March 4). Pre-delay, duties were near 0% on U.S. goods. If implemented, Mexico might impose similar rates, but the current average is still 4%-5%.
- General Rate: China’s trade-weighted average was 4.4% in 2023 (X posts, World Bank), though applied rates vary widely (4%-18% on some goods). U.S. imports faced higher duties (e.g., 7.5%-25% under Section 301).
- Post-2025: China imposed 15% tariffs on U.S. coal/LNG and 10% on oil, machinery, and cars starting February 10, 2025, in response to the U.S. 10% tariff. This bumps China’s effective rate on U.S. goods, but the overall average remains 4.5%-6%, factoring in diverse trade partners.
- General Rate: India’s trade-weighted average was 6.9% in 2023 (X posts, WTO), one of the highest among major economies, with rates like 10%-20% on electronics and agriculture (e.g., 20% on U.S. apples post-2019 retaliation).
- Post-2025: No new U.S. tariffs specifically target India as of February 22, though Trump has threatened broader actions (e.g., BRICS countries). India’s rate on U.S. goods averages 6%-10%, unchanged unless new policies emerge. Overall average holds at 6.9%-7%.
