So it's official: We are in a recession

[Mikeoxenormous]

Thomas Sowell was my favorite dude on Twitter. That's a wise man.

 

[The Duke]

View attachment 677796

He's on teh Twatter daily.

 

[otto105]

The Biden Recession has officially begun.

Yellen June 9: Recession unlikely

Mester June 19: Not predicting a recession

Powell June 22: Recession not likely

Bullard June 24: Too early to have a debate about recession probability

Atlanta Fed July 1 Q2 estimate: -2.1%"



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• "The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow gauge sees the second-quarter running at negative 2.1%."
• "Coupled with the first-quarter’s decline of 1.6%, that would fit the technical definition of recession."

"— This story has been updated to reflect a downward revision Friday afternoon from the Atlanta Fed."

Atlanta Fed GDP tracker shows the U.S. economy is likely in a recession

GDP 2Q -0.9% First Report.

GDP 2Q -0.6% First Revision.

So the ATL Fed GDP tracker is ass.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Can you have a recession with 3.5% unemployment and more than 10 million open jobs?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Can you have a recession with 3.5% unemployment and more than 10 million open jobs?

You can have negative GDP with 3.5% unemployment and more than 10 million open jobs?

Remember what Obama said?

 

[otto105]

You can have negative GDP with 3.5% unemployment and more than 10 million open jobs?

Remember what Obama said?

Most economists don't think that we're in recession now.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

You can have negative GDP with 3.5% unemployment and more than 10 million open jobs?

Remember what Obama said?

Is negative GDP alone enough to constitute an official recession?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Is negative GDP alone enough to constitute an official recession?

Not lately.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Most economists don't think that we're in recession now.

With a couple more Fed hikes this year and now with the Fed balance sheet shrinking, we
have more headwinds than just Dem incompetence.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Not lately.

Ok, well lets say you and I agree we are in a recession...so what?

If there is no corresponding job loss, no corresponding crash of the stock market, no corresponding crash in the housing market...what does it really matter outside of a talking points for the Nov election?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Ok, well lets say you and I agree we are in a recession...so what?

If there is no corresponding job loss, no corresponding crash of the stock market, no corresponding crash in the housing market...what does it really matter outside of a talking points for the Nov election?

Employment usually lags GDP. A bit of a market drop Friday, when Powell said he'll keep hiking to kill inflation. More hikes usually result in market declines.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Employment usually lags GDP.

you sure about that?

In the past 3 recessions (not including the COVID one) job loss preceded the recession.

The Great Recession started Dec 2007, we had negative job growth by July of 2007.

The recession before that started in March of 2001 and we we seeing months of negative job growth as early as June of 2000.

The recession before that started in July 1990, we saw negative job growth start that month and last a year.

 

[otto105]

With a couple more Fed hikes this year and now with the Fed balance sheet shrinking, we
have more headwinds than just Dem incompetence.

Sure, the Fed is still focused on fighting inflation.

Which is what you want right?

I see nothing but the legislative success of the Democratic Party for the American people.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

you sure about that?

In the past 3 recessions (not including the COVID one) job loss preceded the recession.

The Great Recession started Dec 2007, we had negative job growth by July of 2007.

The recession before that started in March of 2001 and we we seeing months of negative job growth as early as June of 2000.

The recession before that started in July 1990, we saw negative job growth start that month and last a year.

you sure about that?

I thought I was.
I guess we still have covid money sloshing around.
Good for jobs, bad for Bidenflation.

 

[otto105]

Employment usually lags GDP. A bit of a market drop Friday, when Powell said he'll keep hiking to kill inflation. More hikes usually result in market declines.

What caused the Friday market dip was Powell's mention of aggressive rate hike in September.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Sure, the Fed is still focused on fighting inflation.

Which is what you want right?

I see nothing but the legislative success of the Democratic Party for the American people.

Yes, the Fed must fight inflation.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

What caused the Friday market dip was Powell's mention of aggressive rate hike in September.

Yes, he needs strong action to kill Bidenflation.

 

[schmidlap]

The Biden Recession has officially begun.

Lookin' good!

The U.S. job market remains unusually hot heading into the Labor Day weekend.​

​

Employers added 315,000 jobs in August, according to a report from the Labor Department. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from 3.5% in July, but only because nearly 800,000 new people entered the workforce. ​

Retailers, factories and health care all added jobs last month.​

​

The labor market continues to shine, despite slowing economic growth and rising fears of recession. Payroll employment has now rebounded to levels not seen since the start of the pandemic. That leaves workers with more money to spend and helps to support the consumer-driven economy.​

[The economy added 315,000 jobs, showcasing a labor market that is still strong]​

​

During the four years of trumpery, unemployment had gone up from 4.8% to 6.3%.

​

​

​

 

[Oddball]

Lookin' good!

The U.S. job market remains unusually hot heading into the Labor Day weekend.​

​

View attachment 690438​

Employers added 315,000 jobs in August, according to a report from the Labor Department. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from 3.5% in July, but only because nearly 800,000 new people entered the workforce. ​

Retailers, factories and health care all added jobs last month.​

​

The labor market continues to shine, despite slowing economic growth and rising fears of recession. Payroll employment has now rebounded to levels not seen since the start of the pandemic. That leaves workers with more money to spend and helps to support the consumer-driven economy.​

[The economy added 315,000 jobs, showcasing a labor market that is still strong]​

​

During the four years of trumpery, unemployment had gone up from 4.8% to 6.3%.

View attachment 690443​

​

​

 

[Marener]

Man, we are supposed to be 9 months into a recession and unemployment the whole time is 4.0% or lower.

When was the last time that happened?