Slower economic growth is likely ahead with risk of a recession rising, according to the CNBC Fed Survey

[Zincwarrior]

Revised Fed survey reduces US GDP forecast to 1.7% from 2.4% and increases the chance of recession by 50%

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/18/slower-economic-growth-is-likely-ahead-with-risk-of-a-recession-rising-according-to-the-cnbc-fed-survey.html

• Probability of a recession rose to 36% from 23% in January, according to the CNBC Fed Survey, which polls fund managers, strategists and analysts.
• The average 2025 GDP forecast declined to 1.7% from 2.4% with tariffs now seen as the top threat to the US economy, replacing inflation.
• Three-quarters of respondents forecast two or more quarter-point cuts this year.

Respondents to the March CNBC Fed Survey have raised the risk of recession to the highest level in six months, cut their growth forecast for 2025 and raised their inflation outlook.

Much of the change appears to stem from concern over fiscal policies from the Trump administration, especially tariffs, which are now seen by them as the top threat to the US economy, replacing inflation. The outlook for the S&P 500 declined for the first time since September.

The 32 survey respondents, who include fund managers, strategists and analysts, raised the probability of recession to 36% from 23% in January. The January number had dropped to a three-year low and looked to have reflected initial optimism following the election of President Trump. But like many consumer and business surveys, the recession probability now shows considerable concern about the outlook.

 

[Polishprince]

The leftards are just trying to "talk down" the economy into recession.

This is what they hope for, to punish the American peeps for rejecting them.

 

[1srelluc]

 

[Mashmont]

Yeah "Nobel winning" leftwing economist Paul Krugman predicted the same thing in 2017, a Trump recession. What followed was one of the greatest periods of growth in American history. Krugman has the distinction of being wrong all the time. Leftwing economists are never right. In fact, "leftwing economist" is an oxymoron. I thought economics was a hard and fast science like mathematics; there is only one correct answer.

 

[Zincwarrior]

Yeah "Nobel winning" leftwing economist Paul Krugman predicted the same thing in 2017, a Trump recession. What followed was one of the greatest periods of growth in American history. Krugman has the distinction of being wrong all the time. Leftwing economists are never right. In fact, "leftwing economist" is an oxymoron. I thought economics was a hard and fast science like mathematics; there is only one correct answer.

I care less about Krugman. This is the actual Fed. They actually know what they are doing and have access to more statistical information than God.

 

[1srelluc]

If memory serves the same bunch did not acknowledge the two no growth quarters in a row Biden had as a recession.

 

[Dekster]

We are way overdue for a recession so bring it on.

 

[justoffal]

The leftards are just trying to "talk down" the economy into recession.

This is what they hope for, to punish the American peeps for rejecting them.

The recession is two years old

 

[justoffal]

We are way overdue for a recession so bring it on.

It's been here for a while

 

[Dekster]

It's been here for a while

They have stayed ahead of a technical recession by injecting way too much cash into the economy via government spending to hide it. It is a practice the government needs to shy away from.

 

[Darkwind]

I care less about Krugman. This is the actual Fed. They actually know what they are doing and have access to more statistical information than God.

If they actually knew what they were doing, there would never be a recession and we'd all be set until the second coming.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

“Much of the change appears to stem from concern over fiscal policies from the Trump administration, especially tariffs, which are now seen by them as the top threat to the US economy, replacing inflation. The outlook for the S&P 500 declined for the first time since September.”

For a second time Trump will destroy a Democratic president’s strong, growing economy.

 

[jbrownson0831]

“Much of the change appears to stem from concern over fiscal policies from the Trump administration, especially tariffs, which are now seen by them as the top threat to the US economy, replacing inflation. The outlook for the S&P 500 declined for the first time since September.”

For a second time Trump will destroy a Democratic president’s strong, growing economy.

Do you walk backwards too??