Rajon Rondo is 25 years old, an NBA champion, a two-time All-Star and a three-time All-Defensive team selection. Hes also set to make $46 million over the next four seasons, one of the leagues best bang-for-the-buck non-rookie contracts. And yet, the Celtics are reportedly trying like mad to trade him for Chris Paul, possibly even offering Rondo to Golden State for Stephen Curry in order to flip Curry to the Hornets for Paul, according to Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News.
Paul is 26, but hes missing at least part of the piece of cartilage that is supposed to provide crucial cushioning in his left knee. He will be paid about $6 million more than Rondo this season, making for a salary swap that would send Boston well into the luxury tax, and he can become a free agent after this season.
The fact that Boston is doing this seems remarkable, even if its obvious that Paul is the better player. Rondo is still a young All-Star, skilled on both sides of the court, and you just dont see teams sending those players flying around the league for other guys who might be gone in six months. Why risk it?
Bostons interest in Paul stems from having an offense that has gotten worse in each of the last three seasons, a decline that figures to continue as Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett get a year older and the Celtics find themselves unable to compete in free agency. Boston was an elite offense as recently as 2008-09, when it ranked sixth in points per possession, even though Garnett played just four games after mid-February. The Celtics fell to 15th in 2009-10, undone in Game 7 of the Finals against the Lakers by the sort of prolonged scoring droughts that killed them all season. They finished 18th in points per possession last season, too low to seriously contend for a championship.
Check out the advanced numbers for Pierce, Allen and Garnett, and youll see a general trend: They rely more and more on teammate assists to get their buckets. The percentage of Pierce and Allen baskets that come via assists has increased in each of the last four seasons, per Hoopdata. The equivalent number for Garnett jumped dramatically in 2008-09 and 2009-10 before falling a tick last season, when Rondo, the Celtics primary distributor, missed major time because of injury. Some of this was inevitable, due to both age and the coming together of stars who used to do much more heavy lifting on their own. Some of it is due to Rondo, one of the games great passers, a wizard at finding angles no one else can.
Bostons Plan A on offense is Rondo passing the ball to great shooters. But NBA teams can stop Plan A quite often, and as Bostons Big Three lose their ability to create one-on-one, there is really no Plan B. Rondo was supposed to be that Plan B, but he is an unwilling and inaccurate shooter who does not get to the foul line. Plan B has too often turned into an engine stall, with teams mucking up Bostons spacing by going under screens on Rondo pick-and-rolls, playing several feet off him when he has the ball and ignoring him when he finally gives it up. The Celtics have figured out clever ways to beat these strategies, and Rondo has improved as an off-the-ball lurker along the baseline, but these tricks require so much effort while producing a below-average scoring punch.