Shock Poll: Clinton 44.0% Trump 43.4% (Trump Has Closed Within Less Than 2)

Steve_McGarrett · Aug 18, 2016

How astonishing it is Trump has closed within 2 as reality has set in about Hillary being unfit to be President. People are waking up to the fact that Trump will make a strong leader for all people (even though he should be only for White people of European heritage, the people this country was created for by the founders) and he will make America great again.

Politics - Los Angeles Times

B. Kidd · Aug 18, 2016

Trump is prepping for his 'scorched earth' march through the Hill-Beast and her bots after labor day. It will make Gen. Sherman proud, bitchez!

Skylar · Aug 18, 2016

B. Kidd said:
Trump is prepping for his 'scorched earth' march through the Hill-Beast and her bots after labor day. It will make Gen. Sherman proud, bitchez!

Oh, obviously. That's why he played magical chairs with his campaign for at least the 3rd time....because everything is going so well.

Dekster · Aug 18, 2016

Skylar said:
B. Kidd said:

Trump is prepping for his 'scorched earth' march through the Hill-Beast and her bots after labor day. It will make Gen. Sherman proud, bitchez!

Click to expand...

Oh, obviously. That's why he played magical chairs with his campaign for at least the 3rd time....because everything is going so well.

Probably to cut his campaign manager out of a cut of the ad-buys.

B. Kidd · Aug 18, 2016

Skylar said:
B. Kidd said:

Trump is prepping for his 'scorched earth' march through the Hill-Beast and her bots after labor day. It will make Gen. Sherman proud, bitchez!

Click to expand...

Oh, obviously. That's why he played magical chairs with his campaign for at least the 3rd time....because everything is going so well.

Plenty of time left, plenty O' time........... :coffee:

.

candycorn · Aug 18, 2016

Big deal…

According to healthmyths and bripat9643 ; Trump is up by 400% or whatever their smartphone apps tell them.

OOPS! New App Allows Users To Remain ANONYMOUS…Defies Liberal Media Narrative…Shows TRUMP Winning

When it comes time behind the voting booth curtain... Trump supporters can be honest..

Old Rocks · Aug 18, 2016

Syriusly · Aug 18, 2016

Steve_McGarrett said:
How astonishing it is Trump has closed within 2 as reality has set in about Hillary being unfit to be President. People are waking up to the fact that Trump will make a strong leader for all people (even though he should be only for White people of European heritage, the people this country was created for by the founders) and he will make America great again.

Politics - Los Angeles Times

LOL- Stevie and his great White Hope.

Syriusly · Aug 18, 2016

Steve_McGarrett said:
How astonishing it is Trump has closed within 2 as reality has set in about Hillary being unfit to be President. People are waking up to the fact that Trump will make a strong leader for all people (even though he should be only for White people of European heritage, the people this country was created for by the founders) and he will make America great again.

Politics - Los Angeles Times

From your article:

With the campaign moving toward a final general election sprint, Trump finds himself in a dangerous place. He has narrowed his support to a segment of the electorate, and curbed his own momentum, according to an analysis of six weeks of findings in the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times presidential tracking poll.

Over the same period, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has built support — even among groups previously arrayed against her — into demonstrable advantages.

The poll was first published July 10 and is in its seventh week. The analysis covered the six full weeks, and thus did not chart any impact from Trump’s high-profile speeches this week, or his midweek decision to shake up his campaign’s leadership.

Over six weeks’ time, Trump’s 22-point lead among whites narrowed to 18 points. Among nonwhites, Clinton’s advantage rose from 38 points to 46 points.

Among men, Trump’s advantage dropped from 12 points to eight points. Among women, Clinton’s edge grew from five points to 12 points.

B. Kidd · Aug 18, 2016

Hill-Bots gettin' a lil' nervous?.......... :rock:

konradv · Aug 18, 2016

B. Kidd said:
Hill-Bots gettin' a lil' nervous?..........

Why? Better than a 3-1 chance to win and over a 4 pt. lead nationally. :mm:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus

B. Kidd · Aug 18, 2016

konradv said:
B. Kidd said:

Hill-Bots gettin' a lil' nervous?..........

Click to expand...

Why? Better than a 3-1 chance to win and over a 4 pt. lead nationally.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus

Yupp!..........an' way before Labor Day.......... :cool-45:

.

Syriusly · Aug 18, 2016

What is hilarious is Stevie the Racist doesn't even realize his article shows that Trump is falling in the polls

Rozman · Aug 18, 2016

I am on an underground web site now that has inside information....So they say....
I am breaking Trump's balls lately but this is scary.....
Trump is up nationwide now by 3

So It's Trump up by 3.....
Wait it just changed....
Trump up +5
Now Trump up +7
Wait a correction
Trump up +9

No.... that's a mistake it's
Trump up + 13

Geeeeez what the hell
Trump up +17

Now they say that Trump is up.....
Biggly!!!

leftwinger · Aug 18, 2016

Trump should mop the floor with that lying old hag if more Americans were informed like me. And frankly, smart like me.

JimBowie1958 · Aug 18, 2016

Skylar said:
B. Kidd said:

Trump is prepping for his 'scorched earth' march through the Hill-Beast and her bots after labor day. It will make Gen. Sherman proud, bitchez!

Click to expand...

Oh, obviously. That's why he played magical chairs with his campaign for at least the 3rd time....because everything is going so well.

That is his management style.

Manafort is still on the campaign.

JimBowie1958 · Aug 18, 2016

This is a good poll that publishes all their criteria, methodology and demographics used.

It has good break downs by age, race, etc, and then gives the information on how they got their numbers and then derived their percentages from it.

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

Now it shows the Presidential race tightening, as does this poll as well, but this will provoke another round of Democrat sponsored morale building polls that will show Hillary at a double digit leads and restack her stats on the RealClearPolitics running average, lol.

From the LA Times poll:
The USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll asks more than 400 people each day about their voting intentions. The poll is part of the Understanding America Study (UAS) at the University of Southern California's Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research.

Each day's poll respondents are a subset of the UAS election panel, roughly 3000 U.S. citizens who were randomly recruited from among all households in the United States. Respondents are asked three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win?

Results are weighted to match demographic characteristics, such as race and gender, from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, and are aligned to the 2012 presidential election outcome using self-reported votes in that election.

These charts are updated daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week's responses.

Now the real key item to look at here are the methods they use to demographically 'balance' their results.

So they take the data they have and where there are more Republicans in it percentage wise than voted in 2012, they toss out a bunch of them till they have the numbers reflected in the 2012 turnout.

But which Republicans get tossed? Are they tossing out traditional conservatives that would vote for Trump or are they tossing Romney Republicans who would never vote Trump? We dont know that, but if you think that they dont care and it is just a random culling of over-represented GOP, then you need to put down the crack pipe and read up on these bastards a little more often.

All these polled people are broken down into detailed demographic analysis by zip code and they stack the deck to favor their own perception of what the reality is among voters out there, and this is heavily influenced by their own private lives and the opinions expressed among those they know. Since the media industry is heavily leftwing ideologically, we know what that perception is, dont we?

They have detailed zip code analysis of every zip code area of the country, and they know the demographics of these areas and whether they have peculiarities that differentiate them from other similar Republicans, Democrats, liberals, conservatives, or moderates, and this gives them more tools for 'sampling' to get the results that they want.

So if there are 156 Republicans out of 400 in the total sample, which is the 39% Pew shows people self identify as GOP, but this is more than the 32% that represented the GOP in the exit polls for the 2012 election, which would give us a target of 128 Republicans for the survey/poll. So 28 Republican polled samples are tossed, and who gets tossed is often determined by their zip code if other questions are asked in the survey and there usually are.

So to shore up the results of the other issue results to reflect what they think is more representative of the public, they toss out the poll samples of people from the "crazy" more conservative zip codes and keep the more liberal ones. Thus we get amazing polling numbers like 51% of people who attend Trump rallies are not going to vote for Trump, and 80% of Catholics support Abortion on Demand and similar nonsense.

Now the people running the polls are not thinking that they are trying to skewer the poll results usually, they think that they are correcting randomly bad samples using statistical methods to reflect society as they personally perceive it. And since they live around and among 99% libtard sheep skinned morons they think that they have to push the sampling further to the left every time.

This is why these polls are so unreliable and no longer really reflect the broad American public but only the liberal half of the spectrum that is left of Hillary Clinton.

Now there are also other factors that skewer polls to the left, such as people being too afraid or ashamed to express their real intentions. These poor folks know that if it gets out that they really plan to vote for Trump they will have huge arguments and lose respect among their friends and maybe even their own family and spouse or even lose their jobs if these people get wind of it. So when speaking over the phone to a pollster and a friend/family member is within ear shot, it is "Hell no! I would never vote for Trump!" to the pollster but when they eventually get in the booth and vote for Trump.

I saw a discussion of this effect whose name I cannot remember, and they sampled some voters with a show of hands as to how many planned to vote for Hillary or Trump and it was something along the lines of 50% for Hillary and 40% for Trump. Then at the end of the documentary and discussion (the discussion had nothing to do with politics, AIUI) they passed around a secret ballot and this time they got over 50% for Trump and low 40's for Hillary. This represents about a 10% slice of the public that is intimidated by the Democrat thuggery, but will still vote for Trump when they have a secret ballot.

Then there is the "Registered voter" vrs "Likely Voter" skewering of the samples. A large number of Trump supporters, about 10% of the broader vote, are first time voters and are not yet registered. So you get a huge shift toward Trump when you poll Likely voters instead of Registered voters. Normally Registered voters are far more likely to vote and "likely" voters are not really so likely to vote as they may think today. But with Trump they have been showing up to the polls and casting their votes in record numbers for the GOP.

So while in previous elections Registered voters gave a more reliable result, this year I think an average of the registered voters and the likely voters is more realistic. Both of the last two factors suggest that there is very likely anywhere from 5% to 15% of the vote for Trump support hidden from the LA Times polls and other polls (not 25% due to overlap in the categories), and thus when you see these polls, adding 5% to Trump and reducing Clinton's results by 5% is a reasonable adjustment to bad sampling adjustments by the polling companies.

Combining the bad polling with the trends for Trump overall, and I think this election is in the bag for Trump, if he can keep his team encouraged, motivated and effectively organized to get out the vote for him that is embedded in the public and ignored by the media.

But this LA Times poll is a great specific example of why the polls should not discourage any Trump supporters at this time. It certainly should not discourage Trump supporters from going out and voting.

sealybobo · Aug 18, 2016

Steve_McGarrett said:
How astonishing it is Trump has closed within 2 as reality has set in about Hillary being unfit to be President. People are waking up to the fact that Trump will make a strong leader for all people (even though he should be only for White people of European heritage, the people this country was created for by the founders) and he will make America great again.

Politics - Los Angeles Times

The other day I went back to August 2012 and found a bunch of republicans polls and threads claiming it was close between mitt and Obama. Then I went back to 2008 and same thing only McCain was supposedly tied. Fucking liars

JimBowie1958 · Aug 18, 2016

konradv said:
B. Kidd said:

Hill-Bots gettin' a lil' nervous?..........

Click to expand...

Why? Better than a 3-1 chance to win and over a 4 pt. lead nationally.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus

You know, Hillary did win the primaries with stacked insider Super delgates and a rigged voting system that favored her from the start.

Just ask any of her supporters back then, her nomination was a sure thing, and you Democrats just accepted it like....., well, not like critical thinkers.

Meanwhile Republicans rejected their appointed nominee and took their own man, and you slam them for being gullible? roflmao

sealybobo · Aug 18, 2016

Steve_McGarrett said:
How astonishing it is Trump has closed within 2 as reality has set in about Hillary being unfit to be President. People are waking up to the fact that Trump will make a strong leader for all people (even though he should be only for White people of European heritage, the people this country was created for by the founders) and he will make America great again.

Politics - Los Angeles Times

The other day I went back to August 2012 and found a bunch of republicans polls and threads claiming it was close between mitt and Obama. Then I went back to 2008 and same thing only McCain was supposedly tied. Fucking liars

But I'm glad you lie. It makes people get out and vote.

Shock Poll: Clinton 44.0% Trump 43.4% (Trump Has Closed Within Less Than 2)

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