Seems awful cold for the "hottest" year on record

[otto105]

The heat the earth receives from the the sun is remarkably constant with respect to similar stars. So what's coming in is pretty constant whether the planet is in an interglacial period like today or a glacial period yet the planet's mean temperature changes quite drastically. The reason it changes quite drastically is that glacial periods are triggered by a disruption of heat from the Atlantic to the Arctic which triggers glaciation in the Arctic. This glaciation increases albedo which serves as a negative feedback amplifying the initial cooling such that it eventually affects the climate of the entire planet. Eventually though, heat circulation from the Atlantic to the Arctic is eventually restored starting the long process of thawing and warming up. The sun during all of this continued to crank out what it always cranks out. This means that absent a change in how the ocean distributes that heat the earth would naturally continue warming even more than it has in any interglacial period before it. The native state of the planet's current landmass distribution and resulting ocean currents is warmer than it has been at any point since the planet became bipolar glaciated but ocean currents are constantly seeking not only equilibrium in temperature but in density as well. As such changes in ocean currents will continue to happen as a result of uneven warming. But you're a political hack and don't give two shits about the science.

Fail

 

[otto105]

It's pretty well known that ice reflects incoming sunlight and is one of the reasons for extensive NH continental glaciation when the temperature threshold is reached for NH glaciation. Maybe look it up.

Fail

 

[Crick]

It's pretty well known that ice reflects incoming sunlight and is one of the reasons for extensive NH continental glaciation when the temperature threshold is reached for NH glaciation. Maybe look it up.

What, then, is happening from the significant LOSS of Arctic albedo as its ice disappears?

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psc.apl.uw.edu

Another ding mistake

 

[Crick]

The heat the earth receives from the the sun is remarkably constant with respect to similar stars. So what's coming in is pretty constant whether the planet is in an interglacial period like today or a glacial period yet the planet's mean temperature changes quite drastically. The reason it changes quite drastically is that glacial periods are triggered by a disruption of heat from the Atlantic to the Arctic which triggers glaciation in the Arctic. This glaciation increases albedo which serves as a negative feedback amplifying the initial cooling such that it eventually affects the climate of the entire planet. Eventually though, heat circulation from the Atlantic to the Arctic is eventually restored starting the long process of thawing and warming up. The sun during all of this continued to crank out what it always cranks out. This means that absent a change in how the ocean distributes that heat the earth would naturally continue warming even more than it has in any interglacial period before it. The native state of the planet's current landmass distribution and resulting ocean currents is warmer than it has been at any point since the planet became bipolar glaciated but ocean currents are constantly seeking not only equilibrium in temperature but in density as well. As such changes in ocean currents will continue to happen as a result of uneven warming. But you're a political hack and don't give two shits about the science.

Just for fun, how about explaining what YOU meant by "native state of the planet"?

 

[ding]

Just for fun, how about explaining what YOU meant by "native state of the planet"?

The equilibrium climate for the current landmass and ocean current configuration absent NH glaciation. It's native state.

 

[ding]

What, then, is happening from the significant LOSS of Arctic albedo as its ice disappears?

View attachment 982110

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psc.apl.uw.edu

Another ding mistake

The planet is presently in an interglacial phase. Stop playing dumb.

The heat the earth receives from the the sun is remarkably constant with respect to similar stars. So what's coming in is pretty constant whether the planet is in an interglacial period like today or a glacial period yet the planet's mean temperature changes quite drastically. The reason it changes quite drastically is that glacial periods are triggered by a disruption of heat from the Atlantic to the Arctic which triggers glaciation in the Arctic. This glaciation increases albedo which serves as a negative feedback amplifying the initial cooling such that it eventually affects the climate of the entire planet. Eventually though, heat circulation from the Atlantic to the Arctic is eventually restored starting the long process of thawing and warming up. The sun during all of this continued to crank out what it always cranks out. This means that absent a change in how the ocean distributes that heat the earth would naturally continue warming even more than it has in any interglacial period before it. The native state of the planet's current landmass distribution and resulting ocean currents is warmer than it has been at any point since the planet became bipolar glaciated but ocean currents are constantly seeking not only equilibrium in temperature but in density as well. As such changes in ocean currents will continue to happen as a result of uneven warming. But you're a political hack and don't give two shits about the science.

 

[otto105]

The equilibrium climate for the current landmass and ocean current configuration absent NH glaciation. It's native state.

Fail

 

[otto105]

Fail

Fail

 

[ding]

Crick​

Water Masses in the Deep Atlantic Ocean​

The Atlantic Ocean is the only ocean basin that features the transformation of surface-to-deepwater near both poles. Warm salty tropical surface waters flowing northward in the western Atlantic cool in transit to and within the high-latitude North Atlantic, releasing heat to the overlying atmosphere and increasing seawater density. Once dense enough, these waters sink and flow southward between ~ 1000 and 4000m. This North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), as it is called, flows from the Atlantic to the Southern Ocean where much of it upwells — or rises to the surface — around Antarctica, and some of it circulates Antarctica before entering the rest of the world's deep oceans. Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), which is formed close to Antarctica, is denser than NADW, and flows northward in the Atlantic below NADW. AABW is confined to water depths below 4000 meters in the tropical and North Atlantic. Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) flows northward above NADW. The presence of these three water masses in the Atlantic Ocean is evident in cross-sections of many water properties, including salinity, phosphate concentration and carbon isotope ratios (Figure 2). The residence time of deepwater in the western Atlantic is approximately 100 years (Broecker 1979), meaning that the average water parcel spends about a century in the deep Atlantic.

Why is Deep Water Formed in the Atlantic and not the Pacific?​

Warren (1983) first noted that the difference in salinity between the North Pacific and the North Atlantic (Figure 1) was the principal reason deep water formation occurs today only in the North Atlantic. Salty water, when cooled, achieves a higher density and is thus able to sink to greater depth in the water column. Wintertime cooling occurs in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific, but since the surface waters of the North Atlantic are much closer in salinity to the mean of the ocean's deep water, they achieve a density high enough to sink to great water depths. Warren (1983) noted that the salinity of the North Pacific was low because of relatively low evaporation, little exchange with salty tropical waters, and an influx of fresh water from precipitation and river runoff. Emile-Geay et al.(2003) reevaluated the Warren (1983) results and fundamentally confirmed his thesis, noting that atmospheric moisture transport from the Asian monsoon was also an important source of fresh water to the North Pacific not originally considered by Warren. Interestingly, Warren also noted that the North Atlantic had much greater river runoff than the North Pacific, so its higher surface salinities must be the result of greater evaporation in the Atlantic basin.

Broecker et al. (1990a) noted that higher Atlantic salinities are the result of a net transfer of water vapor from the Atlantic to the Pacific over the Isthmus of Panama, equivalent to approximately 0.35 Sverdrup (106 m3 per second). In the absence of other processes, this would raise the salinity of the Atlantic by about 1 salinity unit each 1000 years. If the Atlantic salinity is in balance, then it must be exporting the excess salt (enough to compensate for the lost fresh water) through ocean circulation processes. Today this is occurring through the production and export of North Atlantic Deep Water.
At times in the past, rapid melting of ice sheets surrounding the North Atlantic was great enough to alter surface salinities, likely reducing the density of deep water formed, and slowing the export of deep water from the North Atlantic. Broecker et al. (1990b) hypothesized that natural oscillations in the rate of water vapor exchange between the Atlantic and the Pacific during the last glacial period were responsible for the rapid, short term fluctuation ocean circulation linked to the abrupt millennial-scale Dansgaard-Oeschger Events seen in the Greenland ice cores (Figure 9).

Deep Atlantic Circulation During the Last Glacial Maximum and Deglaciation

How has deep ocean circulation changed in the past, and how have the changes affected Earth's climate? Reconstructing ocean circulation and climate history using geological records.

www.nature.com

 

[ding]

Paleoclimate evidence of changing ocean currents resulting in climate changes on a global scale.

#winning

 

[ding]

otto105 and Crick

Isn't science fun?

What Replaces the Deep Water that Leaves the Atlantic?​

There are three main pathways for water to return to the North Atlantic and renew NADW, a warm-water route and two cold water routes (Figure 3). The "warm-water route" begins with the flow of surface and thermocline water from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean through the Indonesian Seas. Both colder return flows involve Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), described above. AAIW enters the southern South Atlantic through the Drake Passage between Antarctica and South America, with some flowing into the Atlantic and some flowing into the Indian Ocean. AAIW also enters the Indian Ocean from south of Tasmania and flows westward towards Africa, where it joins the warm-water flow and the other branch of AAIW before rounding southern Africa, entering the South Atlantic, and flowing northward (Gordon 1985, Speich et al. 2002). Along its transit to the North Atlantic, AAIW from the Drake Passage, flowing above Tasman AAIW, mixes with overlying water and contributes to the "warm-water route" (Gordon 1986). These return flows provide a significant source of heat to high northern latitudes. Together, southward flow of water in the deep Atlantic and its shallower return flows are a large component of what is known as the global Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC).

Deep Atlantic Circulation During the Last Glacial Maximum and Deglaciation

How has deep ocean circulation changed in the past, and how have the changes affected Earth's climate? Reconstructing ocean circulation and climate history using geological records.

www.nature.com

 

[ding]

Take away that heat and the Arctic gets cold AF.

 

[otto105]

otto105 and Crick

Isn't science fun?

What Replaces the Deep Water that Leaves the Atlantic?​

There are three main pathways for water to return to the North Atlantic and renew NADW, a warm-water route and two cold water routes (Figure 3). The "warm-water route" begins with the flow of surface and thermocline water from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean through the Indonesian Seas. Both colder return flows involve Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), described above. AAIW enters the southern South Atlantic through the Drake Passage between Antarctica and South America, with some flowing into the Atlantic and some flowing into the Indian Ocean. AAIW also enters the Indian Ocean from south of Tasmania and flows westward towards Africa, where it joins the warm-water flow and the other branch of AAIW before rounding southern Africa, entering the South Atlantic, and flowing northward (Gordon 1985, Speich et al. 2002). Along its transit to the North Atlantic, AAIW from the Drake Passage, flowing above Tasman AAIW, mixes with overlying water and contributes to the "warm-water route" (Gordon 1986). These return flows provide a significant source of heat to high northern latitudes. Together, southward flow of water in the deep Atlantic and its shallower return flows are a large component of what is known as the global Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC).
View attachment 982211

Deep Atlantic Circulation During the Last Glacial Maximum and Deglaciation

How has deep ocean circulation changed in the past, and how have the changes affected Earth's climate? Reconstructing ocean circulation and climate history using geological records.

www.nature.com

Fail

 

[otto105]

Take away that heat and the Arctic gets cold AF.

Fail

 

[otto105]

Paleoclimate evidence of changing ocean currents resulting in climate changes on a global scale.

#winning

Fail

 

[ding]

Fail

These return flows provide a significant source of heat to high northern latitudes.

Deep Atlantic Circulation During the Last Glacial Maximum and Deglaciation

How has deep ocean circulation changed in the past, and how have the changes affected Earth's climate? Reconstructing ocean circulation and climate history using geological records.

www.nature.com

 

[ding]

Fail

Broecker et al. (1990b) hypothesized that natural oscillations in the rate of water vapor exchange between the Atlantic and the Pacific during the last glacial period were responsible for the rapid, short term fluctuation ocean circulation linked to the abrupt millennial-scale Dansgaard-Oeschger Events seen in the Greenland ice cores (Figure 9).

Deep Atlantic Circulation During the Last Glacial Maximum and Deglaciation

How has deep ocean circulation changed in the past, and how have the changes affected Earth's climate? Reconstructing ocean circulation and climate history using geological records.

www.nature.com

 

[ding]

Fail

As shown by the work of Dansgaard and his colleagues, climate oscillations of one or so millennia duration punctuate much of glacial section of the Greenland ice cores. These oscillations are characterized by 5°C air temperature changes, severalfold dust content changes and 50 ppm CO2 changes. Both the temperature and CO2 change are best explained by changes in the mode of operation of the ocean. In this paper we provide evidence which suggests that oscillations in surface water conditions of similar duration are present in the record from a deep sea core at 50°N. Based on this finding, we suggest that the Greenland climate changes are driven by oscillations in the salinity of the Atlantic Ocean which modulate the strength of the Atlantic's conveyor circulation.

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agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

 

[Crick]

The equilibrium climate for the current landmass and ocean current configuration absent NH glaciation. It's native state.

The current landmass and ocean current configuration coexists with Northern Hemisphere glaciation. How do you propose it go away? A wave of your hands?

And what, pray tell, makes this configuration "native"? Is that some practice of geologists or climatologists of which the rest of us are simply unaware? If so, can you quote a few actual experts using the term?

 

[Crick]

As shown by the work of Dansgaard and his colleagues, climate oscillations of one or so millennia duration punctuate much of glacial section of the Greenland ice cores. These oscillations are characterized by 5°C air temperature changes, severalfold dust content changes and 50 ppm CO2 changes. Both the temperature and CO2 change are best explained by changes in the mode of operation of the ocean. In this paper we provide evidence which suggests that oscillations in surface water conditions of similar duration are present in the record from a deep sea core at 50°N. Based on this finding, we suggest that the Greenland climate changes are driven by oscillations in the salinity of the Atlantic Ocean which modulate the strength of the Atlantic's conveyor circulation.

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agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

A hypothesis addressing changes in Greenland ice cores is not a hypothesis addressing the cause of glacial-interglacial cycles nor of the current warming. But I do find it interesting that someone who has consistently claimed the ECS for CO2 is 1C and that the TCR would be even less, would quote a paper showing a concurrent 5C temperature change and an almost trivial 50 ppm change in CO2.