Yes, I think we are looking at 8-1, a reversal of the Colorado decision. Yes, Sotomayor is going to have no part of the farce, because make no mistake about it, it is a farce.
Based on the oral arguments the SCOTUS is desperately looking for an off ramp. They didn't want to touch this decision with a damn ten foot pole. It is a lose/lose proposition for them no matter how they rule, and the American public is already deeply skeptical of them.
But they have found their off ramp, and it is damn flippin comical.
No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature,
The presidency is not listed. Nope, the president is not an officer of the United States. Nope, the president is special. The oath the president swore, well it just doesn't count. Now, the oath that the local dog catcher submitted to, that counts. Any other president, from Washington all the way to Obama, and Biden too, well the 14th amendment would apply. I mean I can't think of another president in our entire history that didn't previously hold a political office, was a member of the military, or was not an officer of the United States in some capacity. Ike was in the military, he swore an oath. So did Kennedy, Johnson was a member of Congress, Nixon was VP, Ford was VP, Reagan was governor of California, Clinton was in the military, Bush Sr. was in the military and head of the CIA, Bush Jr. was in the military and governor of Texas, Obama was a state legislator and senator, Biden was a member of Congress and VP.
Yep, that is the off ramp that the SCOTUS is going to take. As Sotomayer put it, any other president in our entire history could be disqualified by the14th amendment's insurrection clause, just not Trump. And while the SCOTUS gleefully takes this exit ramp, avoiding all the problems that affirming Colorado's decision would imply, like Texas removing Biden from the ballot for "insurrection", they create a bigger problem.
At some point in the future another person will be elected president that never held a state or federal office, that never served in the military, that never swore an oath to the Constitution. Hell, it might be Trump again in 2024. And come inauguration day, well he swears the oath on the bible and then rips it out of the Chief Justice's hands, spits on it, loudly proclaims "SUCKERS", and immediately installs himself as "Supreme Leader".
Soon enough, every Saturday morning we all have to go to the town square and sing the praises of the "Supreme Leader". College and professional sporting events will begin, not with the National Anthem, but with a vow of servitude to the "Supreme Leader". When historians look back and want to nail down the exact time that the Republic of America died, well it will all come back to this decision from the SCOTUS.