Arctic sea ice extent is
flirting with a new record-low maximum. Wide expanses of dry grass exposed on snowless ground are raising concerns about early wildfires. Ski races are being canceled or converted into contests of repeated circuits on a loop of manmade snow.
So far, this winter in Alaska and much of the rest of the far north resembles a rerun of last winter, a season marked by
record-high temperatures and
record-low snow and
ice measurements.
"It seems like we've heard this story before," said Rick Thoman, climate science and services manager for the National Weather Service in Alaska.
In Anchorage, for example, average temperatures for last month were 9.9 degrees above normal and those for the first half of this month were 8.4 degrees above normal. January snow depth was only 10 percent of normal, according to
National Weather Service statistics.
Expect warmer-than-normal conditions to persist in all of Alaska through May, especially in the southern part of the state, the National Weather Service's
Climate Prediction Center advises in its
latest forecast, issued on Thursday.
"Every tool in our toolbox is pointing in the same direction, toward a warm spring," Thoman said.
Blame, or credit, goes to a variety of factors, he said. The powerful El Nino pattern, though losing its strength at its point of origin in the tropics of the western Pacific, is still funneling heat to North and South America. The big "blob" of warm water in the North Pacific has been breaking up and morphing into a more traditional positive -- and warming -- Pacific decadal oscillation pattern, he said. Ice extent in the Bering Sea is much lower than normal for this time of year, affecting Western Alaska, he said.
Love it or hate it, Alaska's warm winter is predicted to last until breakup
So, no polar amplification? Tell that to the people in Alaska.