RNC delegate allocation for Cleveland, 2016: first estimates

[Statistikhengst]

The Green Papers has come up with the first (and likely, very, very accurate) estimates of the RNC delegate allotment for 2016:

The Green Papers What s New

It looks like the Republican National Convention will have 2,469 delegates, the magic number for the nomination being: 1,235.

In 2012, there are 2,286 Republican delegates.

The first three states (IA, SC, NH) have a combined total of 103 delegates (4.50% of all delegates)

In 2012, according to the individual state's rules, the delegates from IA were always unbounded, the delegates from NH were proportional and the delegates from SC were WTA, by the following formula:

WTA by CD (21 of 50) / 26 delegates WTA statewide (26 of 50) / 3 unpledged

I did a complete workup of the GOP primary calendar on August 15, 2011 and then did a major update on January 3rd, 2012:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond 2012 GOP Primary Season Calendar - massive update

I will be doing something similar to that this year.

The Green Papers is totally non-partisan and is outstanding at collecting and disseminating such data.