In fact, Jason Altmire, one of the Blue Dogs whom NBC cites as a potential flip, told the AP that hes highly skeptical that there are enough votes to pass anything. The nightmare for The One is that any Democrat, left or center, whos eager to find an excuse to not vote for this thing can find something in the compromise bill to latch onto as a dealbreaker. And that being so, given the current political climate, why would anyone think Pelosis likely to get more people flipping yes than flipping no?
As for the sudden burst of enthusiasm among Senate moderates for reconciliation, thats an even bigger bluff than the recent revival of public option fee-vah. If youre Blanche Lincoln or Ben Nelson or Mary Landrieu, why on earth would you commit to reconciliation until you knew for sure that Pelosi had the votes to sneak the Senate bill through the House? Youd be accepting a fantastic political risk a toxic procedural bypass with the prospect of absolutely no reward. Exit quotation from an unnamed House Democrat who voted for Pelosis bill: This is a career-ending vote.