Turkey should do well but my money would be on Brazil and/or Indonesia for better returns: larger populations, larger territories and better access to rivers and seas for better logistics. (Marginally better in the case of Brazil but the Amazon provides barge service to parts of Ecuador which does not border Brazil and Brazil also has access to Rio de la Platte in the south.) Also Turkey's major markets are having political or demographic problems now, which will hold it back. Short of a Turkish friendly regime in Bagdad I don't see Turkey achieving the same degree of per capita GDP growth as those other two.
The parts I agree with I have marked blue. And I would add to them also oil resources (Brazil's Off-Shore oil deposits and abundant other resources on the mainland).
I have no doubt, that Brazil will reach its full development potential.
Indonesia on the other hand is an island nation and in its proximity are far bigger powers like China and Japan.
The question of containment comes to mind, and how far Indonesia is going to be able to project influence into mainland Asia from its island. In my opinion Zero.
Brazil on the other hand is already dominating S.America.
It will consolidate its position and together with continuous socio-economic growth it will establish itself as one pole of the world with a big say in world politics.
The only way for Indonesia to achieve a similar 'weight' like Brazil is going to be through the Muslim world.
But Indonesia lacks proximity, depth and history with core Muslim lands.
Indonesia is neither a player in N.Africa, M.East or C.Asia nor does it share any history or cultural and ethnical connections to these regions.
Indonesia is simply an island nation in the Pacific and is being contained by its direct neighbors China and USA.
Turkey's population base is much smaller then Brazil's or Indonesia's population base.
And there is no logic and potential that Turkey will achieve same strategic weight as Brazil.
In theoretical thinking you just compare specific datas of different countries like GDP, budget, Army-Size and so on.
But, I believe that country-specific data can only be of significance when connected to the geographical factor.
Because the continents are not of equal importance to the World dynamics.
Someone who is dominateing the Middle-East is more important for the World dynamics then someone who controlls Europe.
Europe is somehow, maybe preferentially, a self-contained continent not really of importance to the world besides of the economical factor.
Then there is the law of A to B distance and someone who wants to dominate distant regions will have a drain on its budget by deploying and supporting its logistics of power-projection into those distant lands.
I hope you agree with me, that the importance of geography is important, very important in conjunction with other power-specifying datas like economy and army.
In the historical context I have to add this:
There exists romanticism in the Muslim world resulting from the Arab expansion of Islam in the first millennium. Kudos to them, undoubtedly.
But, let's be real, the Arabs advanced Islam when Europe was no geo-political force.
In those times of Muslim expansion, Arabs didn't face heavy front-wind from Christian Europe.
When Turks (Seljuks+Ottoman) took over Islam, things with Europe were much more different.
Europe had much more power, and later on with Industrialization the Ottomans came totally under the wheels.
The above is what I meant with Indonesia lacking depth in the Muslim world besides the other factors I mentioned.
Is historical depth enough ?
Off course not, as it is also only romanticism.
So, what it is all about then?
States do function with budgets.
With budgets you finance science, military etc..
This defines how big your stick is, and how the size of your stick elevates you to treat other nations with smaller sticks.
Turkey produces 33.1% of the scientific output of the Muslim world:
UK's national Royal Institute:
Number of papers published in scientific journals from 57 member OIC and selected countries share of total in time range 2004 - 2008.
33,1 % - Turkey
15,7 % - Iran
7,4 % - Egypt
4,4 % - Pakistan
3,6 % - S.Arabia
1,4 % - Indonesia
PDF
http://royalsociety.org/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=4294971248
Turkey exports 65% of industrial materials from M.East and N.Africa:
UK Trade & Invest
ukti.gov.uk
- One in four of the largest companies in the Middle East and North Africa are Turkish.
- 65 per cent of industrial exports from the Middle East and North Africa originate from Turkey.
Turkey is establishing about 5.1 new Universities each year
Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey
Total universities until 2000 = 74 universities
Total universities as of 2010 = 125 universities
51 new Universities established between 2000 - 2010
Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey
The world is in motion and the most interesting regions to watch how re-organization of the power-balance plays out is the M.East and East-Asia.
The M.East is a conflict-ridden region, and Turkey is the only country without a regional enemy.
Besides the nuclear proliferation issue, there are no countries or non-state actors around threatening the survival of Turkey.
There is simply no convential threat.
It is all about widening of the influence zone and bringing countries under control.
The claim was never to become a China or USA.
Turkey simply won't.
What for China or USA is competition over the world, for Turkey it is regaining as much influence as possible over the former Ottoman provinces, and compensating Turkey's relative small population base with controlling as much as possible in this
critical region, so we also have a say in tomorrow's world - at least as a minor voice among biggers in the general world and the loudest voice within the Muslim world.
Now, there will be people claiming, that Turkey is a proxy of Iran or Syria.
These voices come primarily from the Israelian camp, they are trying to influence the USA so USA contains Turkey from meddling in issues like Palestine.
I don't claim, that Turkey currently has the capability to enforce its will in issues like Palestine.
But through widening our infuence in the whole area, we are gaining slowly but steadily a critical mass to condition co-operation with foreign powers like USA on a range of issues on things like Palestine.
The Israelis aren't dumb and they also see where this is heading towards to.
As a last statement:
What is the difference between Iran and Turkey?
1st, Turkey is far more developed based on an industrial economy integrated into the world and in every major organization.
2nd, Turkey is cooperating with Countries be it Shia or Sunní
3rd, Iran's infuence is limited to areas where Shia live and it's main outreach model is non-state actors
4th, Turkey's system the Muslim 'Joe-Public' wants in its own country replacing its dictator-system. They watch our TV series, see in news how a democratically elected Government is speaking out for Muslim issues whilst their leaders are completely silent and don't represent the will of their people.
Things are in motion. To our benefit.
I think, we are on a very good way on this path.
And I don't think, that Iran will ever be bombed.
First, look at the NATO missile defense subject.
Second, once Iran (given it happens in the next years) is run post-clerically, Turkey and Iran would integrate on the lines of German-French model of the last century. This would considerably accelerate to shift the power-balance and I don't think, that anyone like China or USA wants this to happen.
