Red Georgia U.S. Senate Seat Going BLUE!

[Gadawg73]

LOL, enjoy your fantasy now. She's up by six points according to your own article, that's "commanding?" LOL. the two Republicans just faced off, the favorite lost. It's traditional that during the primary no one wants to say they will vote for their opponent. However, it's July, now that the candidate is known, they'll get over that and they have way more time than necessary. I lived in Georgia, the Democrat would need to be up by like 20 now to even have a chance. Six points in July at the time if the primary? Again, enjoy your fantasy now. And Kentucky, LOL. This is like Republicans claiming New York and California are theirs.

The poll had 84% determined with undecided at 16% with a margin of error of +/- 5% which is a 10 point spread.
So statistically that means this poll there is a float of 26%.
HAHAHA, and they claim that gives Nunn a lead.
She has no lead.

maybe Sam's daughter can get some advice from Thad Cochran and Haley Barbour

LOVE IT!

As a freshman in high school Sam came to our high school and I was picked to ask him a question in the auditorium. The media was there and the Atlanta news aired my skinny ass 6'5" maybe 155 if that then standing beside him asking the question. I can still remember the media guy with the microphone whispering to me "speak up, speak up".

 

[Gadawg73]

Jimmy Carter was done in by the north east liberal elite led by the Ted Kennedy Brigade.
They hated him and Tip O'Neill despised him as Carter was not a fiscal liberal.
They undermined everything he did from day one.
And Carter did not help himself in many areas also.
Jimmy Carter to this day has done a tremendous amount of charity work all over the world. What other President has given so much of his time TO OTHERS in need after they left office than Jimmy Carter? His family led the fight for integration in a rural Georgia county in the 60s.
Naval Officer that stood out academically also.
Jimmy Carter is a great American and a good and real Christian.

But a terrible president. Presidents are measured on their accomplishments while in office. Carter was a failure. Obama is a larger failure. I agree that Carter is a good person and did some good things, but he failed as president.

One only has to look at his re-election campaign with an entire wing of his own party behind Ted Kennedy to know that there was nothing other than failure from day one when he started. An executive can never succeed in anything when a large faction, with a shit load of money and power, of your own party is out to destroy you.
I remember Maynard Jackson's speech at the convention before the vote for the nominee for his re-election with all the Kennedy signs in the audience. "After strike 3 you are out" was the theme of Jackson's speech and the liberal elite never forgave Jackson for that speech and Maynard, a Democrat, told the northern elite liberals to go **** THEMSELVES.
And during the primary Jimmy said often and had nothing to hide "I will kick Ted Kennedy's ass"
And he did and lost to Reagan who I voted for TWICE!

 

[Gadawg73]

Off topic here but this needs to be said.
Templar KOrmac knows his shit. We had 2 guys running in his district for Congress. One a hard core right wing kook and the other a Republican moderate with forward thinking and a really good young man. TemplarKormac supported and voted for the later and the guy that won Jody Hice is a nut. TK KNEW and understood Tice was not the man and he voted for Collins who was a very good candidate.
TK is NO right wing nutter. I disagree with him on many issues but he is on target with who not to vote for here.

 

[TemplarKormac]

Off topic here but this needs to be said.
Templar KOrmac knows his shit. We had 2 guys running in his district for Congress. One a hard core right wing kook and the other a Republican moderate with forward thinking and a really good young man. TemplarKormac supported and voted for the latter and the guy that won Jody Hice is a nut. TK KNEW and understood Hice was not the man and he voted for Collins who was a very good candidate.
TK is NO right wing nutter. I disagree with him on many issues but he is on target with who not to vote for here.

I make a point to vote with my head, not with raw emotions. Thanks for the vote of confidence, dawg. I owe you rep when my allotment replenishes.

 

[kaz]

The poll had 84% determined with undecided at 16% with a margin of error of +/- 5% which is a 10 point spread.
So statistically that means this poll there is a float of 26%.
HAHAHA, and they claim that gives Nunn a lead.
She has no lead.

maybe Sam's daughter can get some advice from Thad Cochran and Haley Barbour

LOVE IT!

As a freshman in high school Sam came to our high school and I was picked to ask him a question in the auditorium. The media was there and the Atlanta news aired my skinny ass 6'5" maybe 155 if that then standing beside him asking the question. I can still remember the media guy with the microphone whispering to me "speak up, speak up".

Sam Nunn was a good Senator. He was from a day before the Democrats went bat shit Marxist. My father was an expert in child support enforcement. He testified in Congress and the Senate and worked with Sam Nunn. He was also quoted in papers like the USA Today. My father hated the left, but he really liked and respected Nunn.

They are trying to portray his daughter as "moderate." The only thing "moderate" means in Democrat anymore is they don't like the word liberal, they like being called a "moderate.

Zell Miller wrote a great book called "A National Party No More" about why southern conservatives left the Democratic party, though he never did.

 

[TooTall]

Jimmy Carter was done in by the north east liberal elite led by the Ted Kennedy Brigade.
They hated him and Tip O'Neill despised him as Carter was not a fiscal liberal.
They undermined everything he did from day one.
And Carter did not help himself in many areas also.
Jimmy Carter to this day has done a tremendous amount of charity work all over the world. What other President has given so much of his time TO OTHERS in need after they left office than Jimmy Carter? His family led the fight for integration in a rural Georgia county in the 60s.
Naval Officer that stood out academically also.
Jimmy Carter is a great American and a good and real Christian.

I read that Jimmy Carter used to teach Sunday school in his Church. I also read that he left the Church a few years ago, but don't know why.

I lost any respect I had for Carter when he started publicly criticizing Bush's policies. I don't recall any other former Presidents doing that, although Bill Clinton joined Carter in his criticism a little later.

That alone spoke to me of his lack of character and class, but it got him a Nobel Peace Prize. I expected no less from the bottom feeder Clinton.

I wonder if he donated the million dollars that goes with the Peace Prize to his church or a charity. Perhaps someone knows.

 

[TooTall]

maybe Sam's daughter can get some advice from Thad Cochran and Haley Barbour

LOVE IT!

As a freshman in high school Sam came to our high school and I was picked to ask him a question in the auditorium. The media was there and the Atlanta news aired my skinny ass 6'5" maybe 155 if that then standing beside him asking the question. I can still remember the media guy with the microphone whispering to me "speak up, speak up".

Sam Nunn was a good Senator. He was from a day before the Democrats went bat shit Marxist. My father was an expert in child support enforcement. He testified in Congress and the Senate and worked with Sam Nunn. He was also quoted in papers like the USA Today. My father hated the left, but he really liked and respected Nunn.

They are trying to portray his daughter as "moderate." The only thing "moderate" means in Democrat anymore is they don't like the word liberal, they like being called a "moderate.

Zell Miller wrote a great book called "A National Party No More" about why southern conservatives left the Democratic party, though he never did.

I also voted for Sam Nunn and Zell Miller. The one thing I remember about Zell is that he promised when running for Governor to take the sales tax off of Rx drugs and food. He got the Rx drugs and some food sales tax exempt. Folks got to eat every day and need a prescription drug on occasion.

 

[TooTall]

Carter is not a strong candidate for Governor.
I do not care for Nathan Deal but Carter stands no chance.

We do not need another Carter. Jimmy spent 4 years arguing with Lester Maddox and lost most of the arguments.

Nathan Deal is not the best Governor we have had, but I doubt young Carter would be any better.

Carter did a lot for integration and followed Maddox who destroyed what Vandiver and Carl Sanders did. Carter's job was not easy following a clown like Maddox.
First law firm I worked for was in the Candler Bldg at 127 Peachtree St. Governor Carl Sanders had his law firm floor above us Troutman Sanders. Fine man same as Carter.
Jason Carter does not stand a chance.

Here is a list of Lester Maddox's accomplishments. How about a list of Jimmy Carter's accomplishments.

In the 1966 campaign, the Savannah Morning News forecast that a Governor Maddox would "tell off the federal government forty times a day, but four years after his inauguration, he would have accomplished little else."

Once in office, however, Maddox accomplished the following:

• Salary increases (in dollars) during four years as governor were more than for the two previous administrations of Ernest Vandiver and Carl Sanders combined.

• Percentage of salary increase for elementary and secondary teachers was a record breaker unmatched for another seventeen years.

• In higher education, the State Board of Regents received the highest budget increase of the latter half of the 20th century. This was probably the largest percentage increase for higher education of any state during the four fiscal years of the Maddox-approved state budget appropriations.

• Dollars gained for new and expanded industry equaled far surpassed the period from 1947 through 1966.

• According to a letter written by Maddox in 1999, Maddox "left the Office of Governor with a favorable poll rating of above 84 percent and won the Office of Lieutenant Governor in a landslide vote of more than 73 percent, which remains the greatest percentage of votes for any governor or lieutenant governor against a Republican opponent in a Georgia general election".

• Maddox was favorably influenced by Murray M. Silver, Esq., General Counsel of the Georgia Department of Labor, and Commissioner Sam Caldwell to hire blacks and to approve legislation affecting unemployment insurance of automobile workers within the state.
• Maddox integrated the lines of farmer's markets throughout the state, and also urged state troopers to address blacks as Mr. or Mrs. instead of derogatory terms like "******." He also reformed Georgia's prisons and health care.

Years after Maddox's gubernatorial term ended, Republican Benjamin B. Blackburn described Maddox as a "far better governor than his critics will ever admit." Then a former U.S. representative, Blackburn noted that no claim of corruption arose against Maddox, whose administration was characterized by economic development and the appointment of African Americans to state executive positions.

Lester Maddox - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[The Rabbi]

Jimmy Carter was done in by the north east liberal elite led by the Ted Kennedy Brigade.
They hated him and Tip O'Neill despised him as Carter was not a fiscal liberal.
They undermined everything he did from day one.
And Carter did not help himself in many areas also.
Jimmy Carter to this day has done a tremendous amount of charity work all over the world. What other President has given so much of his time TO OTHERS in need after they left office than Jimmy Carter? His family led the fight for integration in a rural Georgia county in the 60s.
Naval Officer that stood out academically also.
Jimmy Carter is a great American and a good and real Christian.

I read that Jimmy Carter used to teach Sunday school in his Church. I also read that he left the Church a few years ago, but don't know why.

I lost any respect I had for Carter when he started publicly criticizing Bush's policies. I don't recall any other former Presidents doing that, although Bill Clinton joined Carter in his criticism a little later.

That alone spoke to me of his lack of character and class, but it got him a Nobel Peace Prize. I expected no less from the bottom feeder Clinton.

I wonder if he donated the million dollars that goes with the Peace Prize to his church or a charity. Perhaps someone knows.

Carter is an asshole. I dont know how he got the reputation as being a good guy. But he isnt. His secret service detail wrote about working with him. He left orders for them not to say anything to him in the morning because saying Good Morning was an imposition on him. He had them carry his bags when he was off camera. He is an anti-semite and an incompetent and has been wrong about virtually everything his whole life.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Jimmy Carter was done in by the north east liberal elite led by the Ted Kennedy Brigade.
They hated him and Tip O'Neill despised him as Carter was not a fiscal liberal.
They undermined everything he did from day one.
And Carter did not help himself in many areas also.
Jimmy Carter to this day has done a tremendous amount of charity work all over the world. What other President has given so much of his time TO OTHERS in need after they left office than Jimmy Carter? His family led the fight for integration in a rural Georgia county in the 60s.
Naval Officer that stood out academically also.
Jimmy Carter is a great American and a good and real Christian.

Yes, he is.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Herman Cain was leading in the national polls before he was lynched by the double standard media that gave Clinton a free pass for harassing women and pulling his Johnson out and showing it to state employees.
You would not know a cracker if one stood in front of you.
A cracker is a slave driver you fool. Slavery ended 150 years ago.

That's interesting revisionist history. I think one poll showed Herman getting a lookover as the "Not-Romney" of the week before the Establishment told all you clowns to sit down you were voting for the Mormon and you were going to like it!

Herman Cain led in all the polls November 2011 NBC.Wall Street Journal Poll
WSJ article "Cain's numbers are SKY HIGH among Republican primary voters"
And then Democratic Pollster Bill McIntruff followed with:
"Herman Cain is the leader, that is the story. Perry had declined badly"
That was from a DEMOCRAT pollster.

As hard as you try Joe you just never do your research for the TRUTH.

Herman Cain LED the entire REpublican field until white Democrats lynched him.
HOW DARE a Negro leave the Plantation, earn a Masters of Science and Information Systems at Purdue University with honors, work as a ballistics systems engineer with The DEpartment of US Navy, sit on numerous boards, sit on The Federal Reserve and manage nunerous corporations?
Negores are not supposed to do that. Negores are supposed to be subservient to their Democratic Masters.

No. That is a lie, I already proved mathematically that that is not so.

Again, here is the link:

http://www.usmessageboard.com/polit...u-s-senate-seat-going-blue-6.html#post9499809

And within that posting is a link to an EXCEL table with every single GOP nomination poll (national) for 2012, taking in 2009, 2010 and 2011.

The data is all there.

Your statement is simply false. Completely false.

 

[jillian]

Politicus USA, a real liberal website, and they say so. That shot of her and Obama hugging is going to get her a lot of votes. You can't believe what comes from this website. Get real

yes, you should only look at the "unskewed polls".

 

[Statistikhengst]

Jimmy Carter was done in by the north east liberal elite led by the Ted Kennedy Brigade.
They hated him and Tip O'Neill despised him as Carter was not a fiscal liberal.
They undermined everything he did from day one.
And Carter did not help himself in many areas also.
Jimmy Carter to this day has done a tremendous amount of charity work all over the world. What other President has given so much of his time TO OTHERS in need after they left office than Jimmy Carter? His family led the fight for integration in a rural Georgia county in the 60s.
Naval Officer that stood out academically also.
Jimmy Carter is a great American and a good and real Christian.

I read that Jimmy Carter used to teach Sunday school in his Church. I also read that he left the Church a few years ago, but don't know why.

I lost any respect I had for Carter when he started publicly criticizing Bush's policies. I don't recall any other former Presidents doing that, although Bill Clinton joined Carter in his criticism a little later.

That alone spoke to me of his lack of character and class, but it got him a Nobel Peace Prize. I expected no less from the bottom feeder Clinton.

I wonder if he donated the million dollars that goes with the Peace Prize to his church or a charity. Perhaps someone knows.

Carter is an asshole. I dont know how he got the reputation as being a good guy. But he isnt. His secret service detail wrote about working with him. He left orders for them not to say anything to him in the morning because saying Good Morning was an imposition on him. He had them carry his bags when he was off camera. He is an anti-semite and an incompetent and has been wrong about virtually everything his whole life.

And you are such a ******* liar, it is unbelievable. What a vicous fuckface you are.

Carter is not an anti-semite. He has some views on the PA that I do not share, but Carter has never expressed anti-semitic statements about us Jews. You are just as batshit crazy as batshit crazy as can be about this.

And where, fuckface, is the link about this new "secret service" stuff that was never once in the news?

Not only do you try your hardest to knock a thread off topic, you are absolutely THE asshole of USMB. So, it is irony that you call a former President of the USA an "asshole".

Really, it is.

Now, the title to this thread is:

"Red Georgia U.S. Senate Seat Going BLUE!"

And it is about one poll showing Nunn considerably ahead of both potential GOP nominees. The poll was taken before the runoff, of course.

This thread is not about Jimmy Carter, fuckface. Get with the program, fuckface.

 

[nodoginnafight]

Jimmy Carter was a decent man and poor president. His administration was crippled from the start when he took on pork-barrel spending and his own party threw him under the bus. When Americans watched the hostage crisis drag on for more than a year, his goose was permanently cooked.

But he was right on pork-barrel spending and he was right on energy.

He started off as a terrific ex-president but blew that chance to rehabilitate his image when he failed to follow the precedent of ex-presidents staying above the fray.

But he remains enormously popular in Georgia and probably accounts for some of why his grandson is polling so well in a state in which no Democrat currently holds a statewide office. Of course Deal screwing the pooch so badly and getting caught lying on camera during last year's ice storm did not help him at all.

But I would still be very surprised to see Carter win. Georgia is still a likely GOP state.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Jimmy Carter was a decent man and poor president. His administration was crippled from the start when he took on pork-barrel spending and his own party threw him under the bus. When Americans watched the hostage crisis drag on for more than a year, his goose was permanently cooked.

But he was right on pork-barrel spending and he was right on energy.

He started off as a terrific ex-president but blew that chance to rehabilitate his image when he failed to follow the precedent of ex-presidents staying above the fray.

But he remains enormously popular in Georgia and probably accounts for some of why his grandson is polling so well in a state in which no Democrat currently holds a statewide office. Of course Deal screwing the pooch so badly and getting caught lying on camera during last year's ice storm did not help him at all.

But I would still be very surprised to see Carter win. Georgia is still a likely GOP state.

I agree with everything but the last sentence, with the argument:

demographics, demographics, demographics.

 

[nodoginnafight]

Jimmy Carter was a decent man and poor president. His administration was crippled from the start when he took on pork-barrel spending and his own party threw him under the bus. When Americans watched the hostage crisis drag on for more than a year, his goose was permanently cooked.

But he was right on pork-barrel spending and he was right on energy.

He started off as a terrific ex-president but blew that chance to rehabilitate his image when he failed to follow the precedent of ex-presidents staying above the fray.

But he remains enormously popular in Georgia and probably accounts for some of why his grandson is polling so well in a state in which no Democrat currently holds a statewide office. Of course Deal screwing the pooch so badly and getting caught lying on camera during last year's ice storm did not help him at all.

But I would still be very surprised to see Carter win. Georgia is still a likely GOP state.

I agree with everything but the last sentence, with the argument:

demographics, demographics, demographics.

Well, I guess we'll have to wait and see. I agree that demographics tend to be tracking toward Georgia becoming a purple state and I think it will probably be the first red/pink state to go fully purple if the current trends continue.

But imho democrats will still need four to six years of the current trends continuing before they can push Georgia into a real toss-up state.

I think Carter and Nunn are unusually strong democratic challengers, so maybe they can help democrats beat that time frame. This will be really interesting to watch.

Just MHO.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Jimmy Carter was a decent man and poor president. His administration was crippled from the start when he took on pork-barrel spending and his own party threw him under the bus. When Americans watched the hostage crisis drag on for more than a year, his goose was permanently cooked.

But he was right on pork-barrel spending and he was right on energy.

He started off as a terrific ex-president but blew that chance to rehabilitate his image when he failed to follow the precedent of ex-presidents staying above the fray.

But he remains enormously popular in Georgia and probably accounts for some of why his grandson is polling so well in a state in which no Democrat currently holds a statewide office. Of course Deal screwing the pooch so badly and getting caught lying on camera during last year's ice storm did not help him at all.

But I would still be very surprised to see Carter win. Georgia is still a likely GOP state.

I agree with everything but the last sentence, with the argument:

demographics, demographics, demographics.

Well, I guess we'll have to wait and see. I agree that demographics tend to be tracking toward Georgia becoming a purple state and I think it will probably be the first red/pink state to go fully purple if the current trends continue.

But imho democrats will still need four to six years of the current trends continuing before they can push Georgia into a real toss-up state.

I think Carter and Nunn are unusually strong democratic challengers, so maybe they can help democrats beat that time frame. This will be really interesting to watch.

Just MHO.

There is just no doubt that, statistically speaking, the GOP has the upper hand, but a number of factors are coming into play: a contentious GOP primary that had to go into "overtime", a practically uncontested Democratic nominee with high name value and a state where Democratic voter registration continues to increase from year to year, although the state of Georgia does not publish VR officially by party affiliation.

Consider this:

In 2008, Georgia was John McCain's third leanest win, after MO (+0.13%) and MT (+2.38%). McCain carried Georgia by +5.20% in 2008.

Fast forward to 2012. Without sinking any real money into Georgia and without having campaigned in the state at all, President Obama lost the Peach State by -7.80% (Romney won by +7.80%).

Here is where is gets interesting:

7.80 - 5.20 = 2.60

So, the state SWUNG 2.6 points to the RIGHT in 2012 over 2008.

Let's compare that to the national results:

2008: Obama +7.26%
2012: Obama +3.86%

3.86 - 7.26 = -3.40

So, the nation SWUNG away from the Democratic Party by -3.4 points, or, better put, The nation SWUNG to the RIGHT by 3.4 points in 2012 over 2008.

Georgia swung less to the Right than the rest of the nation in 2012.

So, without even trying, Obama got to 45.39% of the PV in the Peach State in 2012. Had he actually campaigned there, he MAY have gotten to 47%, maybe not, but the point is that even in a year with strong anti-incumbent feellings, the incumbent won and Georgia stayed a single digit GOP state. That makes it ripe pickings for the future, and the Democratic Party knows it.

Now, at the end of the day, imo, all politics is local and the lessons learned from one election may or may not be applicable in the next election, so, wait and see.

I bet many have forgotten that Georgia has a 50% hurdle for the General Election as well and since Michelle Nunn and David Perdue may indeed be locked into a three man race with Libertarian Amanda Swafford, it means that just as in 2008, there may have to be a runoff race after the GE, which is very, very likely to favor the GOP due to generally lower voter turnout for runoffs.

BTW, I am 100% sure that Hillary Clinton will pick-up Georgia in 2016 and I bet she will win by at least +6.

 

[nodoginnafight]

I agree with everything but the last sentence, with the argument:

demographics, demographics, demographics.

Well, I guess we'll have to wait and see. I agree that demographics tend to be tracking toward Georgia becoming a purple state and I think it will probably be the first red/pink state to go fully purple if the current trends continue.

But imho democrats will still need four to six years of the current trends continuing before they can push Georgia into a real toss-up state.

I think Carter and Nunn are unusually strong democratic challengers, so maybe they can help democrats beat that time frame. This will be really interesting to watch.

Just MHO.

There is just no doubt that, statistically speaking, the GOP has the upper hand, but a number of factors are coming into play: a contentious GOP primary that had to go into "overtime", a practically uncontested Democratic nominee with high name value and a state where Democratic voter registration continues to increase from year to year, although the state of Georgia does not publish VR officially by party affiliation.

Consider this:

In 2008, Georgia was John McCain's third leanest win, after MO (+0.13%) and MT (+2.38%). McCain carried Georgia by +5.20% in 2008.

Fast forward to 2012. Without sinking any real money into Georgia and without having campaigned in the state at all, President Obama lost the Peach State by -7.80% (Romney won by +7.80%).

Here is where is gets interesting:

7.80 - 5.20 = 2.60

So, the state SWUNG 2.6 points to the RIGHT in 2012 over 2008.

Let's compare that to the national results:

2008: Obama +7.26%
2012: Obama +3.86%

3.86 - 7.26 = -3.40

So, the nation SWUNG away from the Democratic Party by -3.4 points, or, better put, The nation SWUNG to the RIGHT by 3.4 points in 2012 over 2008.

Georgia swung less to the Right than the rest of the nation in 2012.

So, without even trying, Obama got to 45.39% of the PV in the Peach State in 2012. Had he actually campaigned there, he MAY have gotten to 47%, maybe not, but the point is that even in a year with strong anti-incumbent feellings, the incumbent won and Georgia stayed a single digit GOP state. That makes it ripe pickings for the future, and the Democratic Party knows it.

Now, at the end of the day, imo, all politics is local and the lessons learned from one election may or may not be applicable in the next election, so, wait and see.

I bet many have forgotten that Georgia has a 50% hurdle for the General Election as well and since Michelle Nunn and David Perdue may indeed be locked into a three man race with Libertarian Amanda Swafford, it means that just as in 2008, there may have to be a runoff race after the GE, which is very, very likely to favor the GOP due to generally lower voter turnout for runoffs.

BTW, I am 100% sure that Hillary Clinton will pick-up Georgia in 2016 and I bet she will win by at least +6.

Those are some pretty interesting numbers. But when you hit that last statement, I had to blink. It sounds pretty outlandish on the surface, but maybe not quite so outlandish after I took a look a few other numbers.

In 2008 the contested Democratic Primary that had no incumbent attracted 1,060,851 voters. In 2012 the contested Republican Primary that had no incumbent attracted 900,434 voters - 160, 417 fewer.

Yes, I know it's not a true apple-to-apples comparison, but it did surprise me. Maybe your prediction is not as outlandish as I thought ???

 

[Statistikhengst]

Well, I guess we'll have to wait and see. I agree that demographics tend to be tracking toward Georgia becoming a purple state and I think it will probably be the first red/pink state to go fully purple if the current trends continue.

But imho democrats will still need four to six years of the current trends continuing before they can push Georgia into a real toss-up state.

I think Carter and Nunn are unusually strong democratic challengers, so maybe they can help democrats beat that time frame. This will be really interesting to watch.

Just MHO.

There is just no doubt that, statistically speaking, the GOP has the upper hand, but a number of factors are coming into play: a contentious GOP primary that had to go into "overtime", a practically uncontested Democratic nominee with high name value and a state where Democratic voter registration continues to increase from year to year, although the state of Georgia does not publish VR officially by party affiliation.

Consider this:

In 2008, Georgia was John McCain's third leanest win, after MO (+0.13%) and MT (+2.38%). McCain carried Georgia by +5.20% in 2008.

Fast forward to 2012. Without sinking any real money into Georgia and without having campaigned in the state at all, President Obama lost the Peach State by -7.80% (Romney won by +7.80%).

Here is where is gets interesting:

7.80 - 5.20 = 2.60

So, the state SWUNG 2.6 points to the RIGHT in 2012 over 2008.

Let's compare that to the national results:

2008: Obama +7.26%
2012: Obama +3.86%

3.86 - 7.26 = -3.40

So, the nation SWUNG away from the Democratic Party by -3.4 points, or, better put, The nation SWUNG to the RIGHT by 3.4 points in 2012 over 2008.

Georgia swung less to the Right than the rest of the nation in 2012.

So, without even trying, Obama got to 45.39% of the PV in the Peach State in 2012. Had he actually campaigned there, he MAY have gotten to 47%, maybe not, but the point is that even in a year with strong anti-incumbent feellings, the incumbent won and Georgia stayed a single digit GOP state. That makes it ripe pickings for the future, and the Democratic Party knows it.

Now, at the end of the day, imo, all politics is local and the lessons learned from one election may or may not be applicable in the next election, so, wait and see.

I bet many have forgotten that Georgia has a 50% hurdle for the General Election as well and since Michelle Nunn and David Perdue may indeed be locked into a three man race with Libertarian Amanda Swafford, it means that just as in 2008, there may have to be a runoff race after the GE, which is very, very likely to favor the GOP due to generally lower voter turnout for runoffs.

BTW, I am 100% sure that Hillary Clinton will pick-up Georgia in 2016 and I bet she will win by at least +6.

Those are some pretty interesting numbers. But when you hit that last statement, I had to blink. It sounds pretty outlandish on the surface, but maybe not quite so outlandish after I took a look a few other numbers.

In 2008 the contested Democratic Primary that had no incumbent attracted 1,060,851 voters. In 2012 the contested Republican Primary that had no incumbent attracted 900,434 voters - 160, 417 fewer.

Yes, I know it's not a true apple-to-apples comparison, but it did surprise me. Maybe your prediction is not as outlandish as I thought ???

I am generally careful comparing primary voting with GE voting, but it is indeed true that the Democratic vote in GA is growing. In 2008, when Obama really was contesting the state (well, halfway), 500,000 new Democrats were registered. Only, first time Democrats often tend to be lazy and not go back to vote again. In this respect, first time Republican voters are more reliable, which is also part of the reason why the GOP will do quite well in the coming 2014 mid-terms, exactly in line with electoral history since 1854.

Nationally, President Obama won the female vote by +11 in 2012:

Presidential Race - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

(Nationally, he won the female vote by +13 in 2008)

In Georgia, in 2008, then Democratic nominee Obama won the female vote in Georgia by +9


Georgia - Election Results 2008 - The New York Times


In state poll after state poll, in the internals, Hillary Clinton is winning the female vote by circa +20.

Assuming that Hillary Clinton does not do worse in the White Vote than Obama did in 2012 (she won't, she will do better) and if Hillary pulls +20 in the female vote, then she wins GA. It's really that simple.

The female vote will swell over the banks in the number of red states and Clinton will win them, depending on exactly who the GOP candidate is.

A rising tide lifts all boats.

 

[Gadawg73]

Jimmy Carter was done in by the north east liberal elite led by the Ted Kennedy Brigade.
They hated him and Tip O'Neill despised him as Carter was not a fiscal liberal.
They undermined everything he did from day one.
And Carter did not help himself in many areas also.
Jimmy Carter to this day has done a tremendous amount of charity work all over the world. What other President has given so much of his time TO OTHERS in need after they left office than Jimmy Carter? His family led the fight for integration in a rural Georgia county in the 60s.
Naval Officer that stood out academically also.
Jimmy Carter is a great American and a good and real Christian.

I read that Jimmy Carter used to teach Sunday school in his Church. I also read that he left the Church a few years ago, but don't know why.

I lost any respect I had for Carter when he started publicly criticizing Bush's policies. I don't recall any other former Presidents doing that, although Bill Clinton joined Carter in his criticism a little later.

That alone spoke to me of his lack of character and class, but it got him a Nobel Peace Prize. I expected no less from the bottom feeder Clinton.

I wonder if he donated the million dollars that goes with the Peace Prize to his church or a charity. Perhaps someone knows.[/QUOTE

I also disliked his criticism of other Presidents but Jimmy Carter has done more charitable work than any other current President.
Carter donated 100% of the money to the Carter Center Library and funding for the facility and also to a charity that his wife set up to help the mentally ill as the Carters did great things in Georgia for the less fortunate.
Interesting that Al Gore also gave it all away also.
Same as Obama as he donated the entire 1.4 million to charity.
MLK gave it all away.