Real Clear Politics now has Harris winning the Electoral College

[JoeB131]

2024 Electoral College Map | RealClearPolling

2024 Electoral College Map | RealClearPolling

www.realclearpolling.com

For all those who have been clinging to the RCP model.

Hey, Weatherman2020

 

[rightwinger]

RCP is a good tool but

It tends to include polls that are a month old and does not challenge outliers

A poll that show Trump +6 is included while every other poll shows Harris +1 to +3

It tends to lag the view of the country

 

[JoeB131]

RCP is a good tool but

Actually, RCP is garbage... but the fact that the Wingnuts there are admitting the momentum of Harris is telling.

Still, we need to all get out there and work. Don't get complacent.

 

[rightwinger]

Still, we need to all get out there and work. Don't get complacent.

That is what the polls consistently get wrong. They show spot views of voters but don’t track who is getting out the most voters and who is registering the most new voters.

 

[kyzr]

The OP is basically correct, if Harris wins PA, MI and WI she wins.

What Trump needs is that "stealth vote" that the polls always miss, 9% in 2016 and 5% in 2020.

 

[rightwinger]

The OP is basically correct, if Harris wins PA, MI and WI she wins.

Trump has to almost run the table to win
Harris has many paths to victory while Trump can not afford to lose many battlegrounds

 

[shockedcanadian]

Well if she does win, the world will see see far less of her. Her and Walz may come out for the midterms like Ground Hog Day, otherwise, her administration will be conducted in secrecy.

 

[shockedcanadian]

Trump has to almost run the table to win
Harris has many paths to victory while Trump can not afford to lose many battlegrounds

Many paths to victory? While Trump has fewer paths?

You really do get your news in the form of pablum.

 

[rightwinger]

Well if she does win, the world will see see far less of her. Her and Walz may come out for the midterms like Ground Hog Day, otherwise, her administration will be conducted in secrecy.

Keep telling yourself that
It may make you feel better but has no basis in reality

 

[rightwinger]

Many paths to victory?

You really do get your news in the form of pablum.

Splain

 

[rampart]

2024 Electoral College Map | RealClearPolling

2024 Electoral College Map | RealClearPolling

www.realclearpolling.com

For all those who have been clinging to the RCP model.

View attachment 1003740

Hey, Weatherman2020

thanks for that.

quite sobering that this election will be determined in omaha nebraska or that 1 district in maine.. 1 electoral vote.

by november maga will be like covid

"its gonna go away on its own, in 2 weeks" trump

"i am not responsible" trump

 

[1srelluc]

Tied in PA.....But who really knows?

Although Harris is leading in the polling averages, recent polls in Pennsylvania have also shown Trump and Harris tied, including the latest Emerson College poll, conducted between August 25 and 28.

Trump's chances of beating Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania: recent polls

Pennsylvania, one of the most important swing states with its 19 electoral votes, voted Democrat in seven of the past eight presidential elections.

www.newsweek.com

Given the polling methods I'll take anything close as a Trump win.....Others can take it as they please.

 

[Mr Natural]

I want to see Harris win the electoral and Trump win the popular.

MAGA heads with explode!

 

[shockedcanadian]

Splain

No need to, I've seen the analysis objectively.

If she loses Pennsylvania its over. That's all.

President Xi will do his best to get the outcome China wants.

 

[rightwinger]

Tied in PA.....But who really knows?

Although Harris is leading in the polling averages, recent polls in Pennsylvania have also shown Trump and Harris tied, including the latest Emerson College poll, conducted between August 25 and 28.

Trump's chances of beating Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania: recent polls

Pennsylvania, one of the most important swing states with its 19 electoral votes, voted Democrat in seven of the past eight presidential elections.

www.newsweek.com

Given the polling methods I'll take anything close as a Trump win.....Others can take it as they please.

The key point is that Trump was once way ahead in Pennsylvania and now it is a statistical tie

 

[rightwinger]

No need to, I've seen the analysis objectively.

If she loses Pennsylvania its over. That's all.

President Xi will do his best to get the outcome China wants.

You really don’t understand the Electoral College do you?

Harris can lose Pennsylvania but can offset it with wins in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina (2 of 3)

Understand the concept of multiple paths to victory?

 

[shockedcanadian]

You really don’t understand the Electoral College do you?

Harris can lose Pennsylvania but can offset it with wins in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina (2 of 3)

Understand the concept of multiple paths to victory?

She isn't winning AZ and her chances of winning GA are lower than she would like.

In terms of solid Red vs solid Blue, Trump has 188 electorates to Harris 175.

Here is an analysis I read a couple of weeks ago:

New CNN Road to 270 shows multiple pathways to victory for both Harris and Trump in reshaped race

MSN

www.msn.com

Solid Republican: (TOTAL: 188 Electoral Votes)

Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Ohio (17), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (40), Utah (6), West Virginia (4), Wyoming (3)

Leans Republican: (TOTAL: 31 Electoral Votes)

Florida (30), Maine 2nd Congressional District (1)

Toss-ups: (TOTAL: 94 Electoral Votes)

Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (1), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10)

Leans Democratic: (TOTAL: 50 Electoral Votes)

Colorado (10), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Oregon (8), Virginia (13)

Solid Democratic: (TOTAL: 175 Electoral Votes)

California (54), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (19), Maine (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (28), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12)

 

[rightwinger]

She isn't winning AZ and her chances of winning GA are lower than she would like.

In terms of solid Red vs solid Blue, Trump has 188 electorates to Harris 175.

Here is an analysis I read a couple of weeks ago:

New CNN Road to 270 shows multiple pathways to victory for both Harris and Trump in reshaped race

MSN

www.msn.com

Solid Republican: (TOTAL: 188 Electoral Votes)

Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Ohio (17), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (40), Utah (6), West Virginia (4), Wyoming (3)

Leans Republican: (TOTAL: 31 Electoral Votes)

Florida (30), Maine 2nd Congressional District (1)

Toss-ups: (TOTAL: 94 Electoral Votes)

Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (1), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10)

Leans Democratic: (TOTAL: 50 Electoral Votes)

Colorado (10), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Oregon (8), Virginia (13)

Solid Democratic: (TOTAL: 175 Electoral Votes)

California (54), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (19), Maine (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (28), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12)

Gee….look at that
You are demonstrating multiple paths to victory

Recent polls are showing your analysis is no longer accurate. “An analysis from a couple weeks ago” is no longer valid
Arizona and Georgia are both leaning to Harris….so is N Carolina which Trump won in 2020

Showing your claim that Harris can’t win if she loses Pennsylvania to be false

 

[shockedcanadian]

Gee….look at that
You are demonstrating multiple paths to victory

Recent polls are showing your analysis is no longer accurate. “An analysis from a couple weeks ago” is no longer valid
Arizona and Georgia are both leaning to Harris….so is N Carolina which Trump won in 2020

Showing your claim that Harris can’t win if she loses Pennsylvania to be false

I'm saying here and now, you can quote me on this election day. If she loses Pennsylvania she loses the election.

 

[JoeB131]

The OP is basically correct, if Harris wins PA, MI and WI she wins.

What Trump needs is that "stealth vote" that the polls always miss, 9% in 2016 and 5% in 2020.

I think that the third time around, that stealth vote gets smaller.

A lot of Republicans just want to be done with Trump so they can go back to their country club republican status and not deal with the great unwashed.