If that were true, no one would be expecting any Ukrainian counter-offensive, but rather Russian sweeping offensive along all of the front-line.
The same applies to "80,000" AFU in Bakhmut. It's an absurd number, and if it were true would lead to the same sweeping Ru offensive.
It came from Prigozhin's plea to the MoD for reinforcements.
The same also applies to his (Prigozhin) "200,000 reserves" that are supposedly poised to counterattack at Bakhmut. That's also a complete fiction.
Even the Russian milbloggers like RSOTM and Rybar are sick of Ritter and MacGregor, and want them both the STFU...
The new Brigades, if fully equipped and manned, will number about 60,000 strong. That's 12 Bde's at 5,000 ea. That's more than I was counting- I had the number at 8 new AFU Bde's. plus 8 new TDF "Storm" Bde's. (those recruits are motivated, but do not receive the same level of training and support as the regular army)
Best case scenario looks to me like 60,000 for the offensive plus 40,000 to follow and hold ground. That's not a knockout punch, but has the potential to put the Russians back on their heels.
Potential. The AFU has never done division-sized maneuvers before. The closest they've came was Kharkiv, and they had a lot of communications issues that caused them to stop before they really had to. It's going to be important to have that sorted out this spring/summer.
Russia's defenses are not weak. Most of the recent mobilized are holding those positions, The advancing forces have been mainly VDV, Naval Infantry, or Wagner PMC.
The positive for the AFU is that those "elite" forces have taken a beating at Bakhmut and Vuhledar and Avdiivka, so they are in a weaker condition than they would otherwise be to defend against an AFU offensive.
The same obviously applies to the AFU in reverse, but to a lesser degree.
I've learned to trust Zaluzhny. I haven't seen any wrong moves yet.