Trying to say Putin did not stoke the separatist fires in Donbass is just ... intellectually dishonest. There are not "good people" on both sides. There are bad people who hate each other for idiotic reasons going back to the czars on both sides, and their are innocent people caught between.
But my question is ... where does Putin go now? His ground forces are done, and eventually Nato will give Ukraine enough air defense to clear the skies over Ukraine. Can he politically say "well, all I wanted was donbass and a land route from Russia to Crimea," and call it a win ... and sue for a cease fire? I'd think that would be the smart play, and honestly Nato would have reasons to agree.
We may be seeing food riots world wide, and apparantly this time the US farmers can't feed the world because we don't produce fertilizer? WTF. We could see worldwide famines. Unless oil goes down to $90 the coming recession is going possibly look like stagflation. Nato could do what it should have done in 2014 and declare Ukraine a "protectorate" and put enough military to kill anything that comes from Donbass westward. I don't think the biggest Russia haters would coddle the Ukraine neo-nazis still fighting a cold war. And we could force Putin out of Odessa, and leave him Ukraine and "a road to Moscow" that no one in their right mind wants to travel.
But would Putin agree to that being his "legacy?" Could he even survive doing it? In five years his energy market in Europe will be .... nyet. Nato has no reason to remove embargos of technology or "parts." All Putin ever had to bargain with was ... carbon. Russia can't make anything because it is a totalitarian state with closed markets. seeya to his dreams of remaking the Tsarist Empire. the Russian standard of living was propped up by oil. His markets of 2030 may be China and India. Or will Putin go down to Sarin and theatre Nukes?
And ultimately Ukraine has to agree to a cease fire. The russian citizens have shown they have no desire to actually die for Putin's dream. Ironically, the Donbass separatists may need Nato to save their lives. The Ukrainians are ready to kill every last one after seeing their children and homes destroyed.