Predict the Electoral Vote

[Meathead]

The fact that they haven’t won the popular vote in almost 40 years doesn’t really align with the claim that the GOP is the “silent majority”…..

Idiot: 2004 United States presidential election - Wikipedia

 

[RhodyPatriot]

The fact that they haven’t won the popular vote in almost 40 years doesn’t really align with the claim that the GOP is the “silent majority”…..

The fact they're about to in six weeks doesn't really align with your grasp of reality.

 

[Winco]

PA is the KEY.

 

[Hector12]

View attachment 1018615

PA is the KEY.

In Pennsylvania Harris is ahead by 48.%% to 46,9%

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[Winco]

In Pennsylvania Harris is ahead by 48.%% to 46,9%

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Yup, and Harris needs to win PA to win the election.

 

[Ms. Turquoise]

269-269. The election then goes to the House as per Constitutional provisions. Popular election of the President or Senate was never intended by the Framers..

There are lots of things that were never intended by The Framers.
1) They never intended for Blacks to be free citizens---only slaves. So, they didn't intend for them to vote. Blacks got voting rights after the Civil War. (Some of them did)
2) They never intended for women to have the right to vote.
3) They never intended for poor people who didn't own property to be able to vote.
4) They never intended for Native Americans to vote. They weren't given citizenship rights until 1924.

I sure am glad there have been amendments to correct these things overlooked by The Framers.

 

[Shareprofit]

There are lots of things that were never intended by The Framers.
1) They never intended for Blacks to be free citizens---only slaves. So, they didn't intend for them to vote. Blacks got voting rights after the Civil War. (Some of them did)
2) They never intended for women to have the right to vote.
3) They never intended for poor people who didn't own property to be able to vote.
4) They never intended for Native Americans to vote. They weren't given citizenship rights until 1924.

I sure am glad there have been amendments to correct these things overlooked by The Framers.

The whole system was broken from day one. The US should ask the Aussies how to run a open and free liberal democracy.

 

[JoeMoma]

Yep. GDP (3.0%) is higher than Trumps' when COVID hit (2.3%), stock market at all time high.

You're dealing with the alternate universe here. It's what they're told, and they won't question it for the slightest moment.

There's no way to communicate with that.

Problem is that between higher food and housing pricing during bidenomics, people's paychecks aren't keeping up.

And the Harris plan is she grew up middle class.

 

[BackAgain]

538!

There.

I predicted it. No over under crap. That’s the number!

 

[Shareprofit]

Problem is that between higher food and housing pricing during bidenomics, people's paychecks aren't keeping up.

And the Harris plan is she grew up middle class.

Bullshit, real income grew last year, thanks to President Biden and VP Harris "Real average hourly earnings increased 1.3 percent, seasonally adjusted, from August 2023 to August 2024."

Real Earnings Summary - 2024 M08 Results

www.bls.gov

 

[kyzr]

Bullshit, real income grew last year, thanks to President Biden and VP Harris "Real average hourly earnings increased 1.3 percent, seasonally adjusted, from August 2023 to August 2024."

Inflation is additive dumbass, Biden & Harris are disasters for US families.
The price of groceries is outrageous, yet illegals get free groceries????????
Anyone who votes for Harris is a moron.

Americans need an extra $11,400 today just to afford the basics, Republican analysis finds

Compared with 2021, the typical household must spend an additional $11,434 annually just to maintain their standard of living, analysis shows.

www.cbsnews.com

Americans need an extra $11,400 today just to afford the basics​

 

[Billy000]

Someone suggested it might be a good idea to have a thread where people can predict the outcome of the presidential race. Sites like 270toWin have interactive maps that you can manipulate. There are others as well.

270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election

www.270towin.com

This is the current default

Harris will take the blue wall and Nevada. I hope for better, but we shall see.

 

[Pellinore]

You want California and New York to elect the President every single time? Elect people in the popular vote and no one will campaign anywhere else in the country? Nebraska is in contention right now over whether to deliver all five electoral votes winner take all or by Congressional district. If you go by popular vote, Nebraska will matter about .1%.

From what I read, that movement is kaput. The deciding vote has said that he will never vote for winner-take-all.

And we wouldn't need to eliminate the EV if we simply eliminated winner-take-all. It wouldn't take a Constitutional amendment, and it would eliminate the hyperfocus on swing states and reenfranchise millions of California Republicans and Texas Democrats, for example, whose Presidential votes basically don't matter right now.

 

[Pellinore]

269-269. The election then goes to the House as per Constitutional provisions. Popular election of the President or Senate was never intended by the Framers..

Specifically, it goes to the House delegations; each state gets one vote, no matter how many Reps it has. Even though it would be the House that gets seated in January, not the one we have now, it would still most likely mean a GOP win.

 

[Pellinore]

Yup, and Harris needs to win PA to win the election.

She has a pretty solid path in if she wins North Carolina instead, and the polls probably haven't had time to reflect the whole Mark Robinson thing yet.

 

[Pellinore]

Inflation is additive dumbass, Biden & Harris are disasters for US families.
The price of groceries is outrageous, yet illegals get free groceries????????
Anyone who votes for Harris is a moron.

Americans need an extra $11,400 today just to afford the basics, Republican analysis finds

Compared with 2021, the typical household must spend an additional $11,434 annually just to maintain their standard of living, analysis shows.

www.cbsnews.com

Americans need an extra $11,400 today just to afford the basics​

... mostly because of Covid supply chain havoc, and Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Prices went up all over the world and we've dealt with it better than any of the other G7 countries, but it's tough for people to hear that over the sound of their wallet screaming.

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

From what I read, that movement is kaput. The deciding vote has said that he will never vote for winner-take-all.

And we wouldn't need to eliminate the EV if we simply eliminated winner-take-all. It wouldn't take a Constitutional amendment, and it would eliminate the hyperfocus on swing states and reenfranchise millions of California Republicans and Texas Democrats, for example, whose Presidential votes basically don't matter right now.

Funny you should say that as Maine and Nebraska considered changing to a winner-takes-all, but they did not. However, election by Congressional district would do as you claimed but that would mean the House seats would all go to the majority party of the presidential candidate in all likelihood. Why not just vote for the House seats and let them pick the President?

 

[Pellinore]

Funny you should say that as Maine and Nebraska considered changing to a winner-takes-all, but they did not. However, election by Congressional district would do as you claimed but that would mean the House seats would all go to the majority party of the presidential candidate in all likelihood. Why not just vote for the House seats and let them pick the President?

First of all, each state also gets two Electors that don't derive from their House seats, which would presumably go to the winner of the overall state, as they do now in Maine and Nebraska. Also, because changing it so the House picks would require a Constitutional amendment.

 

[MarathonMike]

271 for Trump. Just win baby.

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

First of all, each state also gets two Electors that don't derive from their House seats, which would presumably go to the winner of the overall state, as they do now in Maine and Nebraska. Also, because changing it so the House picks would require a Constitutional amendment.

You really suck at math, don't you? The two electoral votes go the winner of the state's popular vote. If a candidate wins most of the district electoral votes, they will also more likely win the popular vote. Take my state as an example. Tennessee has one Democrat in Congress. Because he was in Memphis, that district state might go for Cackles.. Every other district is overwhelmingly Republican meaning all the other electoral votes go for Trump. Harris could possible win one more vote in Tennessee than winner take all, but in California, she could potentially lose 12 electoral votes. That's a net loss of 11 votes. New York could be the same way as California losing districts going Republican. The only way Cackles could win would be to garner enough popular votes in certain high population states to offset the votes she would lose in Republican leaning districts. You will never find a Democrat that would support this style of voting because they will lose most of the time. The high population states only have two electoral votes each to offset the possibly hundreds they would lose in the districts. High population states like Texas and Florida would go predominantly blue with a loss of only a few red congressional seats. many blue states would still take all the electoral votes because the Democrats just don't have the numbers. Democrats inhabit blue states like NY, CA, IL, and very few others but with sufficient red voters to win them in a winner take all environment. Do you think Cackles wants to slum for vote sin Nebraska and 40 other states in order to possibly pick up a district vote? Hell no! She hasn't left a swing state so far in this campaign except to raise money. Why? Because she knows red states are in the bag for Trump and blue states are already in her bag.

No amendment is necessary because each state would still be picking their own electors, but it could easily complicate the process entirely too much, resulting in landslides like no one has seen since Reagan beat Mondale in 1984.