Polls forecast grim outcome for Trump-those polls are from 2016.

[rightwinger]

As of now the (D) electorate seem fine with it.

Democratic Convention is next week
I don’t see any other Dems seeking the nomination

 

[pknopp]

Biden won in 2020. His strategy clearly worked.

It was against Trump. Not a high bar to clear.

And Harris is leading nationally and in key battleground states now.

Maybe....you give Biden a little credit.

I doubt Biden made any of the decisions.

 

[Skylar]

It was against Trump. Not a high bar to clear.

Its still against Trump. Only this time after Trump shit the bed on J6, after Trump called for the termination of the constitution, after Trump's profound slurring and increasingly delusional mental decline.

And after that god-awful Trump linked 2025 Project with its white, Christian nationalist agenda.

I doubt Biden made any of the decisions.

The world's best source on the matter is Biden. And he's indicating he chose Harris. Both times.

If you've got a better source than Biden on Biden's choices, please present it. But your doubts aren't it.

 

[surada]

Ok have you noticed something? They are not discussing issues, They are attacking the messenger. All they have is smear tactics against points that do not support their side.

Like this?

 

[RhodyPatriot]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

According to the polls It is looking grim Donald Trump. You know the guy that made disparaging locker room comments about women. Oh, wait a minute, those polls are from 2016 when he won. Never mind.

This.

The most accurate polls from '16 and '20 still have Trump ahead, but of course the mainstream media doesn't trumpet those polls.

Rasmussen was one of those, and they say he has a national lead by 5 points.

The RCP average has Harris up .5%.

That's still an electoral college landslide for Orange Man.

At this time in '16/20 Hillary/Biden each had a far greater advantages, and both times Trump was underestimated.

The litany of garbage polls that over sample Dems are simply a psyop to discourage Trump voters from showing up.

Let's ignore 'em, and keep our eyes on the prize.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

Ok have you noticed something? They are not discussing issues, They are attacking the messenger. All they have is smear tactics against points that do not support their side.

It becomes tedious.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

The polls in 2016 were not wrong, they predicted Hillary would win the national vote, she did.

They predicted she would win it by nearly double digits.

They were incredibly inaccurate - and a the time even the pollsters themselves admitted it.

Again, not everyone is as stupid as you are.

 

[Skylar]

This.

The most accurate polls from '16 and '20 still have Trump ahead, but of course the mainstream media doesn't trumpet those polls.

Rasmussen was one of those, and they say he has a national lead by 5 points.

The RCP average has Harris up .5%.

That's still an electoral college landslide for Orange Man.

At this time in '16/20 Hillary/Biden each had a far greater advantages, and both times Trump was underestimated.

The litany of garbage polls that over sample Dems are simply a psyop to discourage Trump voters from showing up.

Let's ignore 'em, and keep our eyes on the prize.

Can you show us the evidence that Rasmussen was the most accurate poll in 2020? Because being off by 350% doesn't sound terribly accurate.

For the 2020 United States presidential election, Rasmussen Reports' final White House Watch survey of likely U.S. voters showed Democrat Joe Biden with a 1% lead over Republican Donald Trump, stating that "President Trump and Democrat Joe Biden are in a near tie."[68] Ultimately, Biden won the election by 4.5 percentage points.

White House Watch

President Trump and Democrat Joe Biden are in a near tie in Rasmussen Reports’ final White House Watch survey before Election Day.

www.rasmussenreports.com

 

[RhodyPatriot]

View attachment 993810

Again, it's not poll denying.

It's logic and simple analysis.

If you look at the cross tabs of a poll, and they are oversampling Democrats by multiple points - it's simply a garbage poll.

And every single poll (but one I can think of - Issues and Insights) that has Kamala ahead reflects this major flaw.

Even David Axelrod himself criticized the latest NYT/Siena poll - which showed Harris winning 42% of the white working class in PA.

A statistical anomaly.

So yeah, denying a poll when it is not scientifically sound is the proper response.

It's hilarious to be on a political message board where meticulousness and eye for detail is utterly lacking from one side - and ad hominem screed is the only approach.

 

[Skylar]

Again, it's not poll denying.

It's logic and simple analysis.

Its 'logic and simple analysis' to cite Rasmussen's 2020 polling as 'the most accurate' when they were off by 350%?

Yeah, I don't think 'logic' means what you think it means. But you got the 'simple' part down

 

[RhodyPatriot]

Its 'logic and simple analysis' to cite Rasmussen's 2020 polling as 'the most accurate' when they were off by 350%?

Yeah, I don't think 'logic' means what you think it means. But you got the 'simple' part down

Rasmussen was more accurate than the other polls is the point.

You can only compare apples to apples.

And if you delve into their cross tabs right now, they are clearly more scientific.

Come on.

Bring out a specific poll that you claim shows Kamala's got this in the bag, and I'll tear it apart.

But for now I gotta take my Mom grocery shopping.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

They predicted she would win it by nearly double digits.

They were incredibly inaccurate - and a the time even the pollsters themselves admitted it.

Again, not everyone is as stupid as you are.

The polls on 1 Nov had Clinton up by 4% on average.

She won the popular vote by 2.1%.

The largest average lead she had was on 1 Aug and it was only 7.5%,

As is your OP, you are just lying through your teeth.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Rasmussen was more accurate than the other polls is the point.

You can only compare apples to apples.

And if you delve into their cross tabs right now, they are clearly more scientific.

Come on.

Bring out a specific poll that you claim shows Kamala's got this in the bag, and I'll tear it apart.

But for now I gotta take my Mom grocery shopping.

Rasmussen got lucky one year, they are typically one of the worst.

 

[Skylar]

Rasmussen was more accurate than the other polls is the point.

Says who? The Hill had Biden up by 4. IDB had biden up by 4. Reuters had Biden up by 7. Emerson had Biden up by 5. JTY Research had biden by 7.

While Rasmussen insisted that Biden was only up by 1.

The actual election results were Biden by 4.5. Meaning that Rasmussen was off by 3.5 points

What 'logic' lead you to believe that that Rasmussen was the most accurate in 2020 being off by more than 3.5 points, while the the Hill and IDB and Emerson was only off by 0.5%. And Rueters and JTY were off by only 2.5?

Your math isn't mathing.

This is the folly of MAGA land in general. Y'all just say shit. You don't research. You don't really know what you're talking about. You just make up declarative statements backed by jackshit. And are never questioned by your own ilk.

Alas, the electorate disagreed.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

Rasmussen got lucky one year, they are typically one of the worst.

So which poll are you touting?

Again, cross tabs.

Let's have a look see.

I am just shocked there are no takers.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

The polls on 1 Nov had Clinton up by 4% on average.

She won the popular vote by 2.1%.

The largest average lead she had was on 1 Aug and it was only 7.5%,

As is your OP, you are just lying through your teeth.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

I meant in the swing states.

I should have specified that.

However, I actually used the same numbers to point out that Clinton's average lead was much larger than Kamala's - and yet you all think the race is over.

It's hilarious.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

I meant in the swing states.

I should have specified that.

However, I actually used the same numbers to point out that Clinton's average lead was much larger than Kamala's - and yet you all think the race is over.

It's hilarious.

Who said the race was over?

It is now a good 50/50 race, much more entertaining than when it was Biden vs Trump

And also, Harris not Hillary.

Hillary quit campaigning in Aug and never went to a swing state after that. She just assumed she had them in the bag. As you can see from the schedule that Harris is keeping, she will not make that mistake

Then there was the little issue of the FBI.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

Who said the race was over?

It is now a good 50/50 race, much more entertaining than when it was Biden vs Trump

And also, Harris not Hillary.

Hillary quit campaigning in Aug and never went to a swing state after that

And yet she still had a way bigger lead than Kamala's pitiful .5%, buoyed by garbage polls like Reuters and Morning Consult that oversample Democrats by multiple points.

The fundamentals of the race haven't changed.

When you ask people who has the advantage on the economy - the number one issue - Trump is still running away with it.

And on a tried and true silent voter revealing question: "Who do you THINK will win?" or "Who do you think your neighbor is voting for?" - Trump's lead expands by multiple points.

There are a lot of people like this guy:

Why Trump Voters Fear Speaking Out​

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/why-trump-voters-fear-speaking-out-politics-election-sticker-mule-cancel-culture-ca40b5da?mod=opinion_lead_pos6

Bottom line, Trump still has about 5 ways he can win the Electoral College.

If he wins PA and GA - but LOSES EVERY OTHER SWING STATE - he still wins.

Which makes Kamala's passing over of Shapiro quite the tell in terms of her decision making capability.

This is still Trump's race to lose - I don't care how much sunshine the Left wing activists you call "journalists" pump up your ass between now and November.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

The fundamentals of the race haven't changed.

Yes they have. Not for your side, but for the Dems they have.

There were Dems I knew that were going to stay home and not vote when it was Trump vs Biden.

Now they are excited again and will be out there voting.

The only way Trump wins is by people staying home.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

Yes they have. Not for your side, but for the Dems they have.

There were Dems I knew that were going to stay home and not vote when it was Trump vs Biden.

Now they are excited again and will be out there voting.

The only way Trump wins is by people staying home.

Cool anecdote bro.