I can give you figures I have here from a book in front of me; appendix, table 8 -male labor force participation by race and age-, American Social Policy 1950-1980- Charles Murray;
1954, black labor participation aged 18-20 was 78.4%, in 1970- 61.8%. Male blacks age 21-24 1954, 91.1% 1970 82.6. His data comes from the plethora of the gov. issue conglomerations youll only find in a really good college library or the L. of congress; stats.; Abstract of the US and the Employment and Trng report of the president ( 1964-74) etc.
Additionally 1954 18-20 white LFP- 70.4%, 1970-67.4%.
Taking these numbers in conjunction with unemployment, table blacks 18-20 14.7 in 54 and 23.1 in 1970, whites 18-20, 13.0 in 54 and 12.0 in 70, the number for blacks rises to 33.0 by 1980, their LFP for remainder of the decade avg.s 72.0, the picture paints itself.
I'm not quite sure how to put these numbers together. Unemployment assumes labor force participation, meaning if someone drops out of the labor force to try and live on AFDC benefits, they don't get counted in the unemployment rate. In fact, that would actually tend to make the unemployment numbers look better. On the one hand, we might expect the unemployment numbers to take a hit as black workers equipped by job training programs, etc entered the labor force and potentially had difficulty finding a place to put their skills to use.
On the other hand you're claiming that roughly 17% of blacks dropped
out of the labor force--excluding themselves completely from employment or unemployment figures--and of that population that remained in the labor force, nearly one in four couldn't find a job. This over a period when the poverty rate fell by over ten points. Certainly we'd expect some decline in labor force participation as the Vietnam War ramped up and more blacks entered the armed services but those declines seem a bit high. Something about these numbers doesn't quite smell right.
You said you're taking them out of a Charles Murray book?
Now looking at AFDC data- table 4- data on afdc enrollment and job trng.; in 1954 the total no. of recipients per 1000s is 2173
1970? 9659. The number of children? 54- 1639, 1970? 7033.
2,173 per 1,000?
that is correct or that is the data is in his book from the sources he lists.
my bad, that chart is delineated as
total number( in thousands), my apologies.
At first it may appear that way, yes the numbers are well,l grim, but, if you look at the stats say outlays in afdc yes back to that again, then add in the welfare afdc Supreme court decisions, examples;
- 1961 states permitted to give afdc to homes with unemployed husband
-1966 HEW issues guidelines no at home eligibility checks, BUT that is struck down in 68.
-1967 enactment of 30 and a third rule ( primarily good)
-1968 man in house rule struck down
-1969 residency requirements struck down
so a woman can claim full benes even if they are sharing a domicile with an unmarried male, well, see where I am going here? I think the data ( add in Gault vs. Arizona) and a few other choice social engineering skews and here we are.
Law of unintended reward- a social transfer that increases the net value of being in the condition upon which the reward is based...( not mine, paraphrased)
Have a read of the Seattle-Denver Income Maintenance Experiment (SIME/DIME) 1971-78 ( pub: 1983)....the sponsors revolted at the results but upon many examinations had to admit the results.
We created a pernicious dependent class, call it the under class, call it what you will, this all helped impugn many of the good work envisioned and yes done, ala the prgm.s of the war on poverty and has led us here, whats the out of wedlock birth rate again? What are their chances at/of 'success'?