Pilgrim's Electoral College Prediction Thread

[Dr.Traveler]

Simpleton analysis is rampant in here..............

People need to go to yesterdays CNN poll and read the fine print on thier model!!!! Read it and then ask yourself these simple questions.........

1) Is a single McCain voter voting for Obama today?

2) Are any 2008 Obama voters voting for Romney today?


Now go back and read the fine print on the CNN model from yesterday??

So you have nothing do you?

 

[skookerasbil]

Simpleton analysis is rampant in here..............

People need to go to yesterdays CNN poll and read the fine print on thier model!!!! Read it and then ask yourself these simple questions.........

1) Is a single McCain voter voting for Obama today?

2) Are any 2008 Obama voters voting for Romney today?


Now go back and read the fine print on the CNN model from yesterday??

So you have nothing do you?

Sure do s0n.................

 

[Foxfyre]

There is something to be said for that theory though. I can't imagine anybody who voted for McCain last time voting for Obama this time. I can imagine many who voted for Obama last time now experiencing buyer's remorse and voting differently this time or not bothering to vote at all. Will the fringe candidates pull enough votes to make a difference? Nobody knows yet.

Now consider the scenario of Obama winning the EC but losing the popular vote. When that happened in 2000, Democrats insisted that GW Bush lacked any kind of mandate or validity. If that happens in 2012, will the Demmocrats insist that Obama lacks any kind of mandate or validity?

 

[Dr.Traveler]

There is something to be said for that theory though. I can't imagine anybody who voted for McCain last time voting for Obama this time. I can imagine many who voted for Obama last time now experiencing buyer's remorse and voting differently this time or not bothering to vote at all. Will the fringe candidates pull enough votes to make a difference? Nobody knows yet.

Now consider the scenario of Obama winning the EC but losing the popular vote. When that happened in 2000, Democrats insisted that GW Bush lacked any kind of mandate or validity. If that happens in 2012, will the Demmocrats insist that Obama lacks any kind of mandate or validity?

They'll claim mandate, but the truth is, Obama will be a lame duck. No one is going to go out on a limb to act on his domestic agenda.

Romney is in a similar boat if he can't carry the Senate too. The Democrats are going to line up in opposition and kill anything that comes to the Senate.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Simpleton analysis is rampant in here..............

People need to go to yesterdays CNN poll and read the fine print on thier model!!!! Read it and then ask yourself these simple questions.........

1) Is a single McCain voter voting for Obama today?

2) Are any 2008 Obama voters voting for Romney today?


Now go back and read the fine print on the CNN model from yesterday??

So you have nothing do you?

Sure do s0n.................

Junior, did you ever learn that crappy looking pictures only impress your momma?

 

[kwc57]

There is something to be said for that theory though. I can't imagine anybody who voted for McCain last time voting for Obama this time. I can imagine many who voted for Obama last time now experiencing buyer's remorse and voting differently this time or not bothering to vote at all. Will the fringe candidates pull enough votes to make a difference? Nobody knows yet.

Now consider the scenario of Obama winning the EC but losing the popular vote. When that happened in 2000, Democrats insisted that GW Bush lacked any kind of mandate or validity. If that happens in 2012, will the Demmocrats insist that Obama lacks any kind of mandate or validity?

I am ashamed to admit it. I voted for Obama last election. I was tired of 8 years of Bush. I had always been a McCain fan and actually was pulling for him against Bush in 2000, but he lost. I went into the election booth in 2008 with every intent to vote for McCain. But like I said, I was tired of 8 years of Bush. I feared more of the same. So in a moment of weakness, I voted for Obama. My thinking was he couldn't be worse than Bush and it was time that America elected a black man so we could move beyond all the cries of racism. Hindsight is 20/20 and yes, I have shame and buyer's remorse. That was the absolute worst vote I've ever cast in my life. Obama solidified my conservatism. I've lived and I've learned. I'm counting on there being many others like me out there who won't allow themselves to be fooled twice.

 

[Foxfyre]

There is something to be said for that theory though. I can't imagine anybody who voted for McCain last time voting for Obama this time. I can imagine many who voted for Obama last time now experiencing buyer's remorse and voting differently this time or not bothering to vote at all. Will the fringe candidates pull enough votes to make a difference? Nobody knows yet.

Now consider the scenario of Obama winning the EC but losing the popular vote. When that happened in 2000, Democrats insisted that GW Bush lacked any kind of mandate or validity. If that happens in 2012, will the Demmocrats insist that Obama lacks any kind of mandate or validity?

They'll claim mandate, but the truth is, Obama will be a lame duck. No one is going to go out on a limb to act on his domestic agenda.

Romney is in a similar boat if he can't carry the Senate too. The Democrats are going to line up in opposition and kill anything that comes to the Senate.

It depends. Reagan had a mostly Democratic Senate and House for most of his two terms, but he got through most of his agenda by appealing to the people who then leaned on their congressional representatives. If Romney wins, we will have to see if he has that kind of skill to break the Senate roadblock we've seen for the last two years.

 

[Foxfyre]

There is something to be said for that theory though. I can't imagine anybody who voted for McCain last time voting for Obama this time. I can imagine many who voted for Obama last time now experiencing buyer's remorse and voting differently this time or not bothering to vote at all. Will the fringe candidates pull enough votes to make a difference? Nobody knows yet.

Now consider the scenario of Obama winning the EC but losing the popular vote. When that happened in 2000, Democrats insisted that GW Bush lacked any kind of mandate or validity. If that happens in 2012, will the Demmocrats insist that Obama lacks any kind of mandate or validity?

I am ashamed to admit it. I voted for Obama last election. I was tired of 8 years of Bush. I had always been a McCain fan and actually was pulling for him against Bush in 2000, but he lost. I went into the election booth in 2008 with every intent to vote for McCain. But like I said, I was tired of 8 years of Bush. I feared more of the same. So in a moment of weakness, I voted for Obama. My thinking was he couldn't be worse than Bush and it was time that America elected a black man so we could move beyond all the cries of racism. Hindsight is 20/20 and yes, I have shame and buyer's remorse. That was the absolute worst vote I've ever cast in my life. Obama solidified my conservatism. I've lived and I've learned. I'm counting on there being many others like me out there who won't allow themselves to be fooled twice.

I didn't want McCain either. I didn't want him to win the nomination. I did vote for him in the general election, but had to hold my nose to do so. And I didn't feel so bad that Obama won as Obama said so many things that I've wanted in a President for awhile. But alas, Obama's rhetoric turned out to be all empty of substance and he has not governed anything like the man who campaigned.

This time I was enthusiastic about voting for my candidate and I am 100% certain that I do not want Obama for another four years. I just hope I am not unique.

 

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

With one day to go before the first polls close what do you predict the electoral college results will be?

You can explain why if you want or just post your prediction. Winner gets bragging rights and some rep points from me (now you're excited, aren't you! )


My prediction:

Romney:301
Obama: 237

I feel that a few people, when polled, actually say Obama but when they get in the booth are going to pick Romney. I think it will be a very close race in each state.

Popular vote...I think Romney wins the popular by ~1,000,000 votes.


What are your predictions?

keeper post: pssst, is PillGraham the Rush Limbaugh of USMB?

So I just voted, Romney actually just voted in my state too

The lines @ the polls were huge....and I may have been overly optimistic with my prediction so I'm revising to 295/243 Romney/Obama but I'm keeping my 1 million popular vote prediction!

No that is just my prediction for how it will go. I'm not going to have a meltdown if I'm wrong @ all and got my ideas from looking at all the polls (including their internal metrics such as percent of those polled who are registered to a specific party and turnout models being used by each polling place)

I revised my prediction prior to your post. What is your prediction Devnell?

 

[mamooth]

If you have to say "I feel ..." instead of looking at the polls, you're going to be the loser. There's a whole lot of Republican "I feel ..." here.

It reminds me of the Democrats in 2010. They were doing the "I feel ..." thing, dissecting the polls to prove "bias", pointing to various anecdotes about how a magical surprise turnout would save them, declaring the independents would all break their way, shouting out their pet peeves about the other side which would surely cause people to vote their way, cherrypicking various "trends" from past elections, and otherwise acting exactly like the Republicans are acting now.

 

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

Beyond Obama winning 303-235

I have the Senate remaining at 53-47 for the Dems

I have the House at 235-200 for the Republicans

I didn't think about the house/senate as much when making this but I actually agree with you on both of those predictions.

 

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

If you have to say "I feel ..." instead of looking at the polls, you're going to be the loser. There's a whole lot of Republican "I feel ..." here.

It reminds me of the Democrats in 2010. They were doing the "I feel ..." thing, dissecting the polls to prove "bias", pointing to various anecdotes about how a magical surprise turnout would save them, declaring the independents would all break their way, shouting out their pet peeves about the other side which would surely cause people to vote their way, cherrypicking various "trends" from past elections, and otherwise acting exactly like the Republicans are acting now.

I got my predictions from looking at the polls (including their internal metrics such as percent of those polled who are registered to a specific party and turnout models being used by each polling place).

Did you just look at the final outcome of the polls or did you look into the details of the samples also?

 

[kwc57]

If you have to say "I feel ..." instead of looking at the polls, you're going to be the loser. There's a whole lot of Republican "I feel ..." here.

It reminds me of the Democrats in 2010. They were doing the "I feel ..." thing, dissecting the polls to prove "bias", pointing to various anecdotes about how a magical surprise turnout would save them, declaring the independents would all break their way, shouting out their pet peeves about the other side which would surely cause people to vote their way, cherrypicking various "trends" from past elections, and otherwise acting exactly like the Republicans are acting now.

Hope and change = I feel. Just sayin'

 

[Foxfyre]

If you have to say "I feel ..." instead of looking at the polls, you're going to be the loser. There's a whole lot of Republican "I feel ..." here.

It reminds me of the Democrats in 2010. They were doing the "I feel ..." thing, dissecting the polls to prove "bias", pointing to various anecdotes about how a magical surprise turnout would save them, declaring the independents would all break their way, shouting out their pet peeves about the other side which would surely cause people to vote their way, cherrypicking various "trends" from past elections, and otherwise acting exactly like the Republicans are acting now.

Hope and change = I feel. Just sayin'

Yup. Obama got elected purely on "I feel". He sure as hell didn't get elected on any kind of credentials or track record.

 

[kwc57]

If you have to say "I feel ..." instead of looking at the polls, you're going to be the loser. There's a whole lot of Republican "I feel ..." here.

It reminds me of the Democrats in 2010. They were doing the "I feel ..." thing, dissecting the polls to prove "bias", pointing to various anecdotes about how a magical surprise turnout would save them, declaring the independents would all break their way, shouting out their pet peeves about the other side which would surely cause people to vote their way, cherrypicking various "trends" from past elections, and otherwise acting exactly like the Republicans are acting now.

Hope and change = I feel. Just sayin'

Yup. Obama got elected purely on "I feel". He sure as hell didn't get elected on any kind of credentials or track record.

And his lack of substance will be his undoing today.

 

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

If you have to say "I feel ..." instead of looking at the polls, you're going to be the loser. There's a whole lot of Republican "I feel ..." here.

It reminds me of the Democrats in 2010. They were doing the "I feel ..." thing, dissecting the polls to prove "bias", pointing to various anecdotes about how a magical surprise turnout would save them, declaring the independents would all break their way, shouting out their pet peeves about the other side which would surely cause people to vote their way, cherrypicking various "trends" from past elections, and otherwise acting exactly like the Republicans are acting now.

Hope and change = I feel. Just sayin'

Yup. Obama got elected purely on "I feel". He sure as hell didn't get elected on any kind of credentials or track record.

If Obama was vetted or if people read Dreams From My Father they would know he was an anti-colonialist who's peers did not hold a positive view of America as a country in the world........which his behavior as president has evidenced to be true.

 

[candycorn]

With one day to go before the first polls close what do you predict the electoral college results will be?

You can explain why if you want or just post your prediction. Winner gets bragging rights and some rep points from me (now you're excited, aren't you! )


My prediction:

Romney:301
Obama: 237

I feel that a few people, when polled, actually say Obama but when they get in the booth are going to pick Romney. I think it will be a very close race in each state.

Popular vote...I think Romney wins the popular by ~1,000,000 votes.


What are your predictions?

330-300 electoral votes for Obama.
The Governor has changed his position too many times on too many issues to earn the plurality's trust and vote.

 

[kwc57]

With one day to go before the first polls close what do you predict the electoral college results will be?

You can explain why if you want or just post your prediction. Winner gets bragging rights and some rep points from me (now you're excited, aren't you! )


My prediction:

Romney:301
Obama: 237

I feel that a few people, when polled, actually say Obama but when they get in the booth are going to pick Romney. I think it will be a very close race in each state.

Popular vote...I think Romney wins the popular by ~1,000,000 votes.


What are your predictions?

330-300 electoral votes for Obama.
The Governor has changed his position too many times on too many issues to earn the plurality's trust and vote.

And on the other hand, Obama has screwed the pooch too many times and too many ways to retain the independent and conservative votes he garnered last election.

 

[lefty_rosenthal]

With one day to go before the first polls close what do you predict the electoral college results will be?

You can explain why if you want or just post your prediction. Winner gets bragging rights and some rep points from me (now you're excited, aren't you! )


My prediction:

Romney:301
Obama: 237

I feel that a few people, when polled, actually say Obama but when they get in the booth are going to pick Romney. I think it will be a very close race in each state.

Popular vote...I think Romney wins the popular by ~1,000,000 votes.


What are your predictions?

completely agree with your assessment. Society and more specifically the main stream media make Conservatives embarrassed to admit their voting Republican. You should've seen the crap I got on facebook just for "liking" Mitt Romney. Absolute joke. Dems are all about tolerance until you disagree with their delusional beliefs.

most negative political ad ever!!!

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzdhEKxgGXg]Romney Clubs Seals - YouTube[/ame]

 

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

With one day to go before the first polls close what do you predict the electoral college results will be?

You can explain why if you want or just post your prediction. Winner gets bragging rights and some rep points from me (now you're excited, aren't you! )


My prediction:

Romney:301
Obama: 237

I feel that a few people, when polled, actually say Obama but when they get in the booth are going to pick Romney. I think it will be a very close race in each state.

Popular vote...I think Romney wins the popular by ~1,000,000 votes.


What are your predictions?

completely agree with your assessment. Society and more specifically the main stream media make Conservatives embarrassed to admit their voting Republican. You should've seen the crap I got on facebook just for "liking" Mitt Romney. Absolute joke. Dems are all about tolerance until you disagree with their delusional beliefs.

most negative political ad ever!!!

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzdhEKxgGXg]Romney Clubs Seals - YouTube[/ame]

I revised my prediction to give Iowa to Obama so my new prediction is 295 for romney and 243 for obama.