Vigilante
Diamond Member
- Banned
- #1
By this scenario Trump is the winner...Only on line polls got it right!
yougov.co.uk ^ | 6 28 16
Only polls conducted online correctly foretold that Brexit was a real possibility, and five other things we learned about opinion polling from the EU Referendum
...
THE ONLINE POLLS WERE RIGHT!
Every other source of information suggested that a victory for Remain was a done deal - only the online polls revealed the true state of the race. The real story of this campaign is that not enough attention was paid to good polls, not the reverse.
...
THE BETTING MARKETS KNOW NOTHING
Throughout the campaign, the betting markets showed huge confidence in a Remain victory – odds on Brexit were often as long as 5:1, including on the day of the vote when at one point they hit 16:1.
...
ONLINE POLLS ARE MORE ACCURATE THAN PHONE POLLS
Finally, this controversy can now be settled once and for all. Throughout the campaign the telephone polls showed Remain comfortably ahead, sometimes by as much as 18 points, narrowing to an average 2.7% Remain lead over the final four weeks. The online polls showed Leave ahead more often than Remain, with an average lead for Leave of 1.8% over the same period.
It makes perfect sense – why would you answer a survey if a stranger calls you on the telephone? We know that as few as 5% of people do, and the number is getting smaller every day. Online polls are quick and convenient to take part in and you are paid to take part – that is why a more representative group of people is happy to answer them
yougov.co.uk ^ | 6 28 16
Only polls conducted online correctly foretold that Brexit was a real possibility, and five other things we learned about opinion polling from the EU Referendum
...
THE ONLINE POLLS WERE RIGHT!
Every other source of information suggested that a victory for Remain was a done deal - only the online polls revealed the true state of the race. The real story of this campaign is that not enough attention was paid to good polls, not the reverse.
...
THE BETTING MARKETS KNOW NOTHING
Throughout the campaign, the betting markets showed huge confidence in a Remain victory – odds on Brexit were often as long as 5:1, including on the day of the vote when at one point they hit 16:1.
...
ONLINE POLLS ARE MORE ACCURATE THAN PHONE POLLS
Finally, this controversy can now be settled once and for all. Throughout the campaign the telephone polls showed Remain comfortably ahead, sometimes by as much as 18 points, narrowing to an average 2.7% Remain lead over the final four weeks. The online polls showed Leave ahead more often than Remain, with an average lead for Leave of 1.8% over the same period.
It makes perfect sense – why would you answer a survey if a stranger calls you on the telephone? We know that as few as 5% of people do, and the number is getting smaller every day. Online polls are quick and convenient to take part in and you are paid to take part – that is why a more representative group of people is happy to answer them
