CitizenMark
Rookie
- Oct 15, 2016
- 3
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Consider the odds... What percentage of women would let Trump sexually assault them and not report it over years? Do you think even 50% would? Lets give the benefit and say 1 out of 2 which I would guess is low, meaning more would report it to Someone. Even if not the authorities, reporting it to a news reporter would be a scoop right? Anyway. If Trump has 8 women coming forward that would be like 2 to the power of 8...hmm..lets count it...2,4,8,16, 32, 64, 128, 256 so we are at 1 in 256. Now what are the odds of all 8 not reporting it then but choosing to report it now. A woman who didnt want to go through the scrutiny then and changes her mind. Would it be fair to say half of all women would step up at a later time and report what they didnt want to report then? 256 times 256 =. 1 in 65,536 Play with my numbers, imput your own probabilities and your own variables but you have to admit this does seem very unlikely Lets say only 5 women are considered likely to have been assaulted but chose not to say anything then but will do so now....2, 4, 8, 16, 32...of the 32.. now they chose to not report it to any news media, police etc. then but will do so now..again assuming half of all women would not report at the time but come forward to do so now....32 times 32 = a 1 in 1,024 of it being legit. Thats less than one tenth of a percent!! I would have a better chance of randomly guessing your birthday. If you argue more women are out there but not choosing to come forward now...you would have to add more to the initial calculation of women who would be sexually assaulted but not come forward ever. No matter how you do this and what legitimate variables you use, the odds that Trump really did this is at least in the thousands to 1. Numbers dont lie. This is pretty hard to believe. By the time its all sorted out though, the election will be over and those who are likely behind it will have achieved their goal. There are bad men out there. There are sexual offenders out there but the odds dont support that this is anything but a smear campaign. It is possible Trump got caught talking like an idiot but didnt really do any of this but the video opens the door for publicity bad enough to kill his chances of winning. How much do you think is at stake here with this election? Would it be worth smearing a candidate for those who would have the means to do so...and if so, should we let it happen? People might think Im being insensitive. I just wanted to share why I find this all very hard to believe.I
