I've identified the following Deadly Dozen as motivators for many of those who voted against Obama. How many will be part of his agenda?
Universal Health Care
Will not happen in his 1st term, may change the tax code to allow individuals to deduct insurance premiums and may remove the limit on AGI for taking healthcare deductions on federal taxes. Could more for curtailing ERISA and allowing states more authority to regulate insurance backed employee health plans within the states (i.e. limit federal preemption).
2nd term may develop some form of voluntary federal insurance plan which allows employers the option of going with private insurers or buying into a federal insurance plan. Federal plan could then help in regulating insurance premiums by raising or lowering the federal insurance premium. Kind of ho the Fed regulates interest rates by adjusting the overnight lending rate.
We will not see a massive mandatory social insurance plan because this is a big vote loser, subsidized health insurance is the goal, but itÂ’s not going to be implimented in a way that will drive private insurers out of business.
If GM or Ford declare cpt. 11 and can renegotiate union contracts, I predict the federal insurance will pick up the worker & retiree medical because I doubt if anyone else in the market will.
Global Warming Taxes, Cap and Trade
Maybe a carbon emissions tax in his 2nd term, expect to see lots of talk and very little action as gas prices continue to tumble.
Raising a Multitude of Taxes
Buzzword from the Obama financial team is “Broadening the Base” so expect to see substantial changes in the tax code regarding corporate deductions for executive compensation and net operating loss carry forwards. Corporate rate may go as high as 39% (under Regan it was 50%).
The Estate tax will be renewed (it is set to expire in 2009) at current levels.
Expect the SSI wage base to increase to $250,000 for 2009.
The federal itemized deduction phase-out will return to its 2004 level of 6%.
The IRS audit focus will shift from EITC recipients to individuals paying the Alternate Minimum Tax in order to capture more revenue from non compliance.
Capital gains treatment for qualified dividends will be eliminated and the top marginal rate may go as high as 39%.
Left Wing Supreme Court Justices
Probably not a significant issue as the conservatives on the bench are (relatively) young and vital. Any conservative retirements will probably wait until 2010 and see how the congressional elections pan out. The only one I could realistically see leaving is Stevens and he is considered (by most conservatives) as a liberal already.
Restrict Right Wing Radio, Fairness Doctrine
As a democrat and an Obama voter, I would have a very hard time on this issue. I doubt Obama will make any move here as it would alienate a large portion of his base (think ACLU members)
Restrict Drilling for Oil and Natural Gas
He will do this in his 1st term and become more aggressive as oil prices fall. Falling oil prices mean less backing for drilling by oil companies and more support from the American public.
Change Policy in the Middle East and Abandon Israel
Policy will change in Iraq, there is no way he will abandon Israel given the support (and funding) provided by various Jewish groups to his campaign.
Impose Card Check to Prevent Secret Ballot in Union Elections
He may do this, although if GM or Ford go into cpt 11 they can renegotiate collectively bargained agreements so Organized Labor and the UAW may not have a pot to piss in by 2012 either way.
Myriad of Hearings Aimed at Former Bush Officials
Doubt it but it is possible, it depends on how easy it is to prove the links to possible illegal actions and how much the democratic base is out for blood. Personally I think itÂ’s a waste of time given the challenges America is currently facing. This may become a bigger focus in ObamaÂ’s 2nd term if the economy and the war settle down.
Reparations in Some Form
Doubt it, this would cause an even deeper rift in race relations. I would not be surprised if an Obama administration rolls back existing affirmative action policies.
Ban or Restrict Guns
Not unless there is another school shooting or other incident that raises popular support for a restriction on specific firearms.
Form a "Civilian National Security Force that's just as powerful, just as well-funded" as the military
I hope not, where the hell are we going to find another $500,000,000,000 to fund a program the size of the military. I think in the end this is just going to boil down to a reorganization of the Department for Homeland Security and keep its $150,000,000,000 budget but have federal employees rather than independent contractors performing services for the TSA, etc.