GOP IS to to blame. They dug the fiscal hole, they set up a tax policy that resulted in the enrichment of a few and the impoverishment of most.
Their lessaiz-faire regulatory policies crashed the economy, they doubled the size of the war budget and engaged in foreign wars of choice. They despise the poor, the working man, and the civil servant. They place corporate interests above citizen interests.
The Economic Blue Screen of Death
OCT 2008
Work done by James Kennedy and Alan Greenspan, on the effect of mortgage equity withdrawals (MEWs) on the growth of the US economy.
Notice that in both 2001 and 2002, the US economy continued to grow on an annual basis (the "technical" recession was just a few quarters). Their work suggests that this growth was entirely due to MEWs. In fact,
MEWs contributed over 3% to GDP growth in 2004 and 2005, and 2% in 2006. Without US homeowners using their homes as an ATM, the economy would have been very sluggish indeed, averaging much less than 1% for the six years of the Bush presidency. Indeed, as a side observation, without home equity withdrawals the economy would have been so bad it would have been almost impossible for Bush to have won a second term.
Now let's look at the update that James Kennedy posted last week to his numbers. While he does not have an update to the chart above, we do have the actual numbers for new mortgage equity withdrawals through the second quarter of this year. And what they show is MEWs simply withering on the vine.
The engine of our GDP growth has essentially been turned off. Look at the fall in the numbers for yourself:
In 2005 there was almost $595 billion in mortgage extractions that went into some kind of consumer spending. Remember, according to the graph above, that translated into a 3% rise in GDP. In 2007,
MEWs were down to $470 billion, for a boost of 2% to GDP.
The second quarter of 2008 saw an anemic $9.5 billion. At that run rate, we could see a drop-off of over 90% from 2005! Now, think what the second quarter would have been without the federal stimulus program of $150 billion. It might have looked and felt like this quarter!
The Economic Blue Screen of Death
Do you remember 2001 when we had a budget surplus. Alan Greenspan testified before Congress in favor of the Bush tax cuts,"we are in danger of paying down the debt too fast". How absurd is that statement today! By the way, not a single GOP senator voted for the 93 reconciliation act that led to the balanced budget and eventual surplus.
We already know what economic policies work best for our country. Clinton knew that we had to cut spending and increase revenues. We had revenues of 20.6% of GDP and a surplus in 2000.
Then something terrible happened, the Republicans gained complete control in 2001 and instead of sticking with what was working they decided that their ideology was more important. The debt has gone up $12+ trillion since then.