Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature currently requires accessing the site using the built-in Safari browser.
Aug. 25: An Above-Average Likely Voter Gap for Romney
By NATE SILVER
The good news for Barack Obama? Among registered voters, he led Mitt Romney by nine percentage points, with 52 percent of the vote to Mr. Romneys 43 percent.
However, Mr. Obama led by just two percentage points, 49 to 47, when CNN applied its likely voter screen to the survey. This is the first time this year that CNN has reported likely voter results.
Holding a two-point lead among likely voters is not an especially bad (or good) number for Mr. Obama, since it is highly consistent with the way that our forecast sees the overall race right now.
Read more
Ouch! Obama must be shaking in his golf shoes.
@ "the jaw dropper"
C'mon...
Ouch! Obama must be shaking in his golf shoes.
Yeah I'd be shaking in my golf shoes too if I had any because a prediction from a historically accurate predictor says Obama will get 297 electoral votes and has a chance of winning!
For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner, said Berry. The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If its the former, the president may receive credit for the economys trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.
Their model correctly predicted all elections since 1980, including two years when independent candidates ran strongly, 1980 and 1992. It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election.
The study will be published this month in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. It will be among about a dozen election prediction models, but one of only two to focus on the Electoral College.
While many forecast models are based on the popular vote, the Electoral College model developed by Bickers and Berry is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions.
Analysis of election factors points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | University of Colorado Boulder
Aug. 25: An Above-Average ‘Likely Voter Gap’ for Romney
By NATE SILVER
The good news for Barack Obama? Among registered voters, he led Mitt Romney by nine percentage points, with 52 percent of the vote to Mr. Romney’s 43 percent.
However, Mr. Obama led by just two percentage points, 49 to 47, when CNN applied its likely voter screen to the survey. This is the first time this year that CNN has reported likely voter results.
Holding a two-point lead among likely voters is not an especially bad (or good) number for Mr. Obama, since it is highly consistent with the way that our forecast sees the overall race right now.
Read more
…
“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Berry. “The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.”
thats odd, since Mitt Romney keeps gettign his ass beat!
His gig is up, The Chicago Punk has been found out. He's nothing but a shell of a man, he has nothing but words. His words lie, cheat and destroy. He's done.
A presidential election prediction model developed by two University of Colorado professors points to a big win for GOP presidential contender Mitt Romney in November.
The model, the only of its kind to use more than one state-level economic indicator, has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1980.
It predicts Romney winning the electoral college by a 320-218 margin and winning 52.9 percent of the popular vote when only the two major parties candidates are considered, the Associated Press reported Thursday.
Romney, it concluded, will win every state currently considered by pollsters to be a swing state, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina.
C'mon...
Because the first image captures the same sense of things as would have been captured had they chosen to use the last image instead?
That's just editorial discretion with no purpose behind it?
Ok.
If you wanna play "let's pretend," I'll pretend that's rational.
.
There may some inside information that most of us are not privy to, but it seems to me that if the press reported that Obama is losing and then people looked at current polling data, people would be wondering what the media is smoking.
.
.
There may some inside information that most of us are not privy to, but it seems to me that if the press reported that Obama is losing and then people looked at current polling data, people would be wondering what the media is smoking.
.
The "inside information" is exactly what the lame stream media is busy attempting to conceal.
C'mon...
Because the first image captures the same sense of things as would have been captured had they chosen to use the last image instead?
That's just editorial discretion with no purpose behind it?
Ok.
If you wanna play "let's pretend," I'll pretend that's rational.
I must've misinterpreted the post.
I took it to be a testament to the crowd size, which while large, wasn't really jaw dropping.
I see the point you were making now. fugheddaboutit
The Cain supporter is secure. Good to know.
.
There may some inside information that most of us are not privy to, but it seems to me that if the press reported that Obama is losing and then people looked at current polling data, people would be wondering what the media is smoking.
.
The "inside information" is exactly what the lame stream media is busy attempting to conceal.
So what are you thinking, internal polling? Inside information from Obama's campaign?
.
The "inside information" is exactly what the lame stream media is busy attempting to conceal.
So what are you thinking, internal polling? Inside information from Obama's campaign?
.
I'm thinking the article already spells it out.
Naw, that just puts him far ahead of the publicly educated.And Inability still has to live with he fact that he supported Herman Cain for President OVER Mitt Romney.
I win.
So what are you thinking, internal polling? Inside information from Obama's campaign?
.
I'm thinking the article already spells it out.
He doesn't want to answer Mac.
