Obama Is Losing And Everyone In His Campaign Knows It

[courseofhistory]

Aug. 25: An Above-Average ‘Likely Voter Gap’ for Romney

By NATE SILVER


The good news for Barack Obama? Among registered voters, he led Mitt Romney by nine percentage points, with 52 percent of the vote to Mr. Romney’s 43 percent.

However, Mr. Obama led by just two percentage points, 49 to 47, when CNN applied its likely voter screen to the survey. This is the first time this year that CNN has reported likely voter results.

Holding a two-point lead among likely voters is not an especially bad (or good) number for Mr. Obama, since it is highly consistent with the way that our forecast sees the overall race right now.

Read more

…

Ouch! Obama must be shaking in his golf shoes.

Yeah I'd be shaking in my golf shoes too if I had any because a prediction from a historically accurate predictor says Obama will get 297 electoral votes and has a 69.3% chance of winning!

 

[WillowTree]

It is pretty damn bad when you have to ask your donors to donate their birthday, wedding, and shower gifts to your campaign. innit?

 

[Liability]

@ "the jaw dropper"

C'mon...

Because the first image captures the same sense of things as would have been captured had they chosen to use the last image instead?

That's just editorial discretion with no purpose behind it?



Ok.

If you wanna play "let's pretend," I'll pretend that's rational.

 

[nitroz]

thats odd, since Mitt Romney keeps gettign his ass beat!

 

[California Girl]

Ouch! Obama must be shaking in his golf shoes.

Yeah I'd be shaking in my golf shoes too if I had any because a prediction from a historically accurate predictor says Obama will get 297 electoral votes and has a chance of winning!

Analysis of election factors points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | University of Colorado Boulder

“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Berry. “The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.”

Their model correctly predicted all elections since 1980, including two years when independent candidates ran strongly, 1980 and 1992. It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election.

The study will be published this month in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. It will be among about a dozen election prediction models, but one of only two to focus on the Electoral College.

While many forecast models are based on the popular vote, the Electoral College model developed by Bickers and Berry is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions.

So, your 'historically accurate' prediction says Obama. This 'historically accurate' prediction says Romney.

 

[Darkwind]

Aug. 25: An Above-Average ‘Likely Voter Gap’ for Romney

By NATE SILVER


The good news for Barack Obama? Among registered voters, he led Mitt Romney by nine percentage points, with 52 percent of the vote to Mr. Romney’s 43 percent.

However, Mr. Obama led by just two percentage points, 49 to 47, when CNN applied its likely voter screen to the survey. This is the first time this year that CNN has reported likely voter results.

Holding a two-point lead among likely voters is not an especially bad (or good) number for Mr. Obama, since it is highly consistent with the way that our forecast sees the overall race right now.

Read more

…

Analysis of election factors points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | University of Colorado Boulder

This is the most accurate model of presidential elections, and these two guys ARE NOT conservatives.

“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Berry. “The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.”

 

[Liability]

thats odd, since Mitt Romney keeps gettign his ass beat!

Yeah. All the way to the nomination.

AFTER he got his ass beat when he ran for governor.

I hope those are good predictors for how badly his ass gets beaten running against The ONE.

 

[LoneLaugher]

His gig is up, The Chicago Punk has been found out. He's nothing but a shell of a man, he has nothing but words. His words lie, cheat and destroy. He's done.

Pay attention.

This week....count the number of times Obama is referenced as opposed to how often Romney is lauded by the various speakers.

See if the GOP appears to have a great deal of confidence in Mitt.

 

[naturegirl]

Red is for Romney-Ryan:

A presidential election prediction model developed by two University of Colorado professors points to a big win for GOP presidential contender Mitt Romney in November.

The model, the only of its kind to use more than one state-level economic indicator, has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1980.

It predicts Romney winning the electoral college by a 320-218 margin and winning 52.9 percent of the popular vote when only the two major parties’ candidates are considered, the Associated Press reported Thursday.

Romney, it concluded, will win every state currently considered by pollsters to be a swing state, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

University of Colorado model points to big Romney win | The Daily Caller

Analysis of election factors points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | University of Colorado Boulder

 

[bobcollum]

@ "the jaw dropper"

C'mon...

Because the first image captures the same sense of things as would have been captured had they chosen to use the last image instead?

That's just editorial discretion with no purpose behind it?



Ok.

If you wanna play "let's pretend," I'll pretend that's rational.

I must've misinterpreted the post.

I took it to be a testament to the crowd size, which while large, wasn't really jaw dropping.

I see the point you were making now. fugheddaboutit

 

[Liability]

.

There may some inside information that most of us are not privy to, but it seems to me that if the press reported that Obama is losing and then people looked at current polling data, people would be wondering what the media is smoking.

.

The "inside information" is exactly what the lame stream media is busy attempting to conceal. A water boy does have to carry some water, after all.

But it doesn't matter.

What does matter is the Electoral outcome on Election Day.

I'm feeling pretty secure (while urging conservatives to get out and vote, of course).



,

 

[Mac1958]

.

There may some inside information that most of us are not privy to, but it seems to me that if the press reported that Obama is losing and then people looked at current polling data, people would be wondering what the media is smoking.

.

The "inside information" is exactly what the lame stream media is busy attempting to conceal.

So what are you thinking, internal polling? Inside information from Obama's campaign?

.

 

[LoneLaugher]

The Cain supporter is secure. Good to know.

 

[Liability]

@ "the jaw dropper"

C'mon...

Because the first image captures the same sense of things as would have been captured had they chosen to use the last image instead?

That's just editorial discretion with no purpose behind it?



Ok.

If you wanna play "let's pretend," I'll pretend that's rational.

I must've misinterpreted the post.

I took it to be a testament to the crowd size, which while large, wasn't really jaw dropping.

I see the point you were making now. fugheddaboutit

It was a large crowd. In and of itself, was it "jaw dropping?" No. On that I agree with you.

But as compared to the first image, the difference is pretty startling.

I believe the reference to "jaw dropping" in the piece was intended to convey that second meaning.

 

[Liability]

The Cain supporter is secure. Good to know.

LonelyLaughable thinks The ONE is safely re-elected.

 

[Liability]

.

There may some inside information that most of us are not privy to, but it seems to me that if the press reported that Obama is losing and then people looked at current polling data, people would be wondering what the media is smoking.

.

The "inside information" is exactly what the lame stream media is busy attempting to conceal.

So what are you thinking, internal polling? Inside information from Obama's campaign?

.

I'm thinking the article already spells it out.

 

[LoneLaugher]

And Inability still has to live with he fact that he supported Herman Cain for President OVER Mitt Romney.

I win.

 

[LoneLaugher]

The "inside information" is exactly what the lame stream media is busy attempting to conceal.

So what are you thinking, internal polling? Inside information from Obama's campaign?

.

I'm thinking the article already spells it out.

He doesn't want to answer Mac.

 

[Darkwind]

And Inability still has to live with he fact that he supported Herman Cain for President OVER Mitt Romney.

I win.

Naw, that just puts him far ahead of the publicly educated.

 

[Liability]

So what are you thinking, internal polling? Inside information from Obama's campaign?

.

I'm thinking the article already spells it out.

He doesn't want to answer Mac.

LonelyLaughable, you idiot. Butt out. Mac asked. I did answer.

Unlike you, Mac is smart enough to follow the trail.

You? Not so much.