NY23 - Election Miracle?

[rightwinger]

Obama took the 23rd by about 5 points.

A conservative victory would be significant.

A close conservative loss would be less significant.

A narrow Democrat win would be insignificant.

A substantial Democrat win would be less insignifcant...

Can you explain?

Thanks

 

[NYcarbineer]

Obama took the 23rd by about 5 points.

A conservative victory would be significant.

A close conservative loss would be less significant.

A narrow Democrat win would be insignificant.

A substantial Democrat win would be less insignifcant...

What?

Best case scenario is, the Democrat wins and Hoffman comes in second. That will send the Teabag crowd into a frenzy and incite them to go out and eff up all sorts of Republican chances in 2010.

 

[rightwinger]

Obama took the 23rd by about 5 points.

A conservative victory would be significant.

A close conservative loss would be less significant.

A narrow Democrat win would be insignificant.

A substantial Democrat win would be less insignifcant...

What?

Best case scenario is, the Democrat wins and Hoffman comes in second. That will send the Teabag crowd into a frenzy and incite them to go out and eff up all sorts of Republican chances in 2010.

I see them going out and teabagging moderate republicans.

A public war between republican factions does not bode well

"Can't we all just get along??"

 

[jillian]

The buzz continues for the upcoming NY23 Congressional Election.

Will Hoffman actually win? If so, it would be one of the most remarkable election upsets in some time...

All that's going to happen is that they'll split the repub vote and a dem will win the 23rd for something like the first time ever.

boy... that'll show 'em...

That gives you something to hope for.

i don't *hope* for it in the sense you are implying. i am interested in it because i think it's one of the stupidest political "strategies" I've ever seen...

I think the loons are pathetic and are cutting off their noses to spite their faces. you can't win elections by excluding everyone who doesn't march in lockstep on every issue.

 

[Sinatra]

More good news for Hoffman - latest poll has him in statistical tie with the Democrat candidate, and more Republicans now appear to be getting behind his election - which will likely continue onto Election Day. If the trend of the last week continues, Hoffman will actually win a comfortable margin next week.

____
October 29, 2009
NY-23 Poll: Owens, Hoffman In Dead Heat
-->
Third-party candidate Doug Hoffman's place in the race gets reinforced today, as a new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll finds the Conservative Party nominee in a statistical tie for the lead in the special election for New York's 23rd District.

The only other polls that had shown him ahead of the GOP nominee were released by conservative groups who publicly support him.

Hoffman has won the backing of national Republicans, such as Sarah Palin and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, and leads Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava by 11 points. He trails Owens by just 1 point, putting him well within the margin of error and in a strong position to replace former congressman John McHugh (R-N.Y.).

The new survey also shows a huge change since the Kos/R2000 survey out last week, in which Scozzafava led Hoffman by 7 points.

Owens 33 (-2 vs. last poll, Oct. 22)
Hoffman 32 (+9)
Scozzafava 21 (-9)
Und 14

The special election will be held Nov. 3. The survey was conducted Oct. 26-28 of 600 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4%.


RealClearPolitics - Politics Nation - NY-23 Poll: Owens, Hoffman In Dead Heat

 

[NYcarbineer]

Obama took the 23rd by about 5 points.

A conservative victory would be significant.

A close conservative loss would be less significant.

A narrow Democrat win would be insignificant.

A substantial Democrat win would be less insignifcant...

What?

Best case scenario is, the Democrat wins and Hoffman comes in second. That will send the Teabag crowd into a frenzy and incite them to go out and eff up all sorts of Republican chances in 2010.

I see them going out and teabagging moderate republicans.

A public war between republican factions does not bode well

"Can't we all just get along??"

In Texas, Palin is endorsing Perry and Cheney is endorsing Hutchison.

 

[Intense]

All that's going to happen is that they'll split the repub vote and a dem will win the 23rd for something like the first time ever.

boy... that'll show 'em...

That gives you something to hope for.

i don't *hope* for it in the sense you are implying. i am interested in it because i think it's one of the stupidest political "strategies" I've ever seen...

I think the loons are pathetic and are cutting off their noses to spite their faces. you can't win elections by excluding everyone who doesn't march in lockstep on every issue.

You also can't Govern when the Foundation caves in underneath your footing. Difference of opinion is acceptable, Corruption of Ideal or Principle is not. When does a Republic stop being a Republic?


Talk about Ethics and Ideals on the Left. When does Leon Panetta get a shot?

 

[Intense]

More good news for Hoffman - latest poll has him in statistical tie with the Democrat candidate, and more Republicans now appear to be getting behind his election - which will likely continue onto Election Day. If the trend of the last week continues, Hoffman will actually win a comfortable margin next week.

____
October 29, 2009
NY-23 Poll: Owens, Hoffman In Dead Heat
-->
Third-party candidate Doug Hoffman's place in the race gets reinforced today, as a new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll finds the Conservative Party nominee in a statistical tie for the lead in the special election for New York's 23rd District.

The only other polls that had shown him ahead of the GOP nominee were released by conservative groups who publicly support him.

Hoffman has won the backing of national Republicans, such as Sarah Palin and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, and leads Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava by 11 points. He trails Owens by just 1 point, putting him well within the margin of error and in a strong position to replace former congressman John McHugh (R-N.Y.).

The new survey also shows a huge change since the Kos/R2000 survey out last week, in which Scozzafava led Hoffman by 7 points.

Owens 33 (-2 vs. last poll, Oct. 22)
Hoffman 32 (+9)
Scozzafava 21 (-9)
Und 14

The special election will be held Nov. 3. The survey was conducted Oct. 26-28 of 600 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4%.


RealClearPolitics - Politics Nation - NY-23 Poll: Owens, Hoffman In Dead Heat

Hoffman needs exposure. I hope he gets it.

 

[LibocalypseNow]

Hoffman does seem to be gaining some momentum at this point. He picked up Pataki's endorsement yesterday. This seat may still go Democrat unfortunately. The Republicans really may have shot themselves in the foot once again. They should have backed Hoffman in the first place instead of backing another wishy-washy Arlen Specter/Lindsey Graham type. That could cost them. Anyway,i'm still rooting for Mr. Hoffman. Go get em!

 

[Intense]

Hoffman does seem to be gaining some momentum at this point. He picked up Pataki's endorsement yesterday. This seat may still go Democrat unfortunately. The Republicans really may have shot themselves in the foot once again. They should have backed Hoffman in the first place instead of backing another wishy-washy Arlen Specter/Lindsey Graham type. That could cost them. Anyway,i'm still rooting for Mr. Hoffman. Go get em!

It is something that Must be Addressed.

 

[Intense]

All that's going to happen is that they'll split the repub vote and a dem will win the 23rd for something like the first time ever.

boy... that'll show 'em...

That gives you something to hope for.

i don't *hope* for it in the sense you are implying. i am interested in it because i think it's one of the stupidest political "strategies" I've ever seen...

I think the loons are pathetic and are cutting off their noses to spite their faces. you can't win elections by excluding everyone who doesn't march in lockstep on every issue.

I would rather take a loss with dignity than end up with another Republican that talks and spends like a Democrat. What is the worth of a Victory that leaves you with no Identity?

 

[Sinatra]

What an amazingly insightful thread that was started here!

Almost as if...

Nah......

The buzz continues for the upcoming NY23 Congressional Election.

Will Hoffman actually win? If so, it would be one of the most remarkable election upsets in some time...

__

NY23: 'Do You Believe in Miracles'?
By Robert Stacy McCain on 10.28.09 @ 6:08AM

What a difference two weeks can make. Toward the end of an Oct. 14 conference call organized by David Keene of the American Conservative Union, congressional candidate Doug Hoffman plaintively asked, "Does anybody know how to get Glenn Beck interested in this?"

Monday afternoon, Hoffman was interviewed on Beck's popular Fox News program, evidence of the surging momentum the Conservative Party candidate has experienced in the three-way special election campaign in update New York's 23rd District.

...The complete list of Hoffman endorsers is a long one, and seems to include nearly every Republican except Newt Gingrich and Dede Scozzafava, the later of whom is Hoffman's opponent, and the former her only prominent supporter. According to the two most recent polls, the liberal Republican Scozzafava is now in third place, while Hoffman has pulled ahead of Democrat Bill Owens.

Less than a dozen conservative bloggers were on the Oct. 14 ACU conference call, but within days, the Hoffman campaign had suddenly "gone viral," as Internet gurus say. The fact that Palin's endorsement was announced on her Facebook page shows just how conservatives have adopted Web 2.0 technology -- and the staggering $116,000 in PayPal contributions generated that day demonstrates what a powerful tool online fundraising can be.



The American Spectator : NY23: 'Do You Believe in Miracles'?

 

[Zander]

The Republican vote is going to be split. Do you think New Yorkers even if they are Republican are going to put that much weight into the opinions of people like Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin? Neither of which are that much of actual Conservatives.

So the Democrat candidate will win, and the Republicans will blame each other for the loss. They may win in Virginia with their fucked up candidate but if only because the Democrat candidate is even more fucked up.

Republicans should of had NJ in the bag, they were up by 15 points in the polls at one point. That was BEFORE Chris "I am above the law" Christie was put into the spotlight.

Looks like you were dead wrong. Scozzafava is out.

 

[Intense]

The Dems seem to encourage big spending Republicans. Imagine that.

 

[Sinatra]

The Republican vote is going to be split. Do you think New Yorkers even if they are Republican are going to put that much weight into the opinions of people like Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin? Neither of which are that much of actual Conservatives.

So the Democrat candidate will win, and the Republicans will blame each other for the loss. They may win in Virginia with their fucked up candidate but if only because the Democrat candidate is even more fucked up.

Republicans should of had NJ in the bag, they were up by 15 points in the polls at one point. That was BEFORE Chris "I am above the law" Christie was put into the spotlight.

Looks like you were dead wrong. Scozzafava is out.

That Dogbert character is wrong about everything. Much noise, little facts, and less truth.

Hoffman to win the election by a 3-5 point margin...

 

[Old Rocks]

That gives you something to hope for.

i don't *hope* for it in the sense you are implying. i am interested in it because i think it's one of the stupidest political "strategies" I've ever seen...

I think the loons are pathetic and are cutting off their noses to spite their faces. you can't win elections by excluding everyone who doesn't march in lockstep on every issue.

I would rather take a loss with dignity than end up with another Republican that talks and spends like a Democrat. What is the worth of a Victory that leaves you with no Identity?

I sincerely hope you get your wish

 

[Old Rocks]

The Republican vote is going to be split. Do you think New Yorkers even if they are Republican are going to put that much weight into the opinions of people like Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin? Neither of which are that much of actual Conservatives.

So the Democrat candidate will win, and the Republicans will blame each other for the loss. They may win in Virginia with their fucked up candidate but if only because the Democrat candidate is even more fucked up.

Republicans should of had NJ in the bag, they were up by 15 points in the polls at one point. That was BEFORE Chris "I am above the law" Christie was put into the spotlight.

Looks like you were dead wrong. Scozzafava is out.

That Dogbert character is wrong about everything. Much noise, little facts, and less truth.

Hoffman to win the election by a 3-5 point margin...

As opposed to the 30 point margins of the past.

 

[Intense]

i don't *hope* for it in the sense you are implying. i am interested in it because i think it's one of the stupidest political "strategies" I've ever seen...

I think the loons are pathetic and are cutting off their noses to spite their faces. you can't win elections by excluding everyone who doesn't march in lockstep on every issue.

I would rather take a loss with dignity than end up with another Republican that talks and spends like a Democrat. What is the worth of a Victory that leaves you with no Identity?

I sincerely hope you get your wish

Do you cheat at Solitaire Too???

 

[JakeStarkey]

One analyst seemed to have it right about Dede: "“Unfortunately for Assemblywoman Scozzafava, this has become a two person race between Owens and Hoffman," said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. “She now has the support of only one in five voters, having gone from 35 percent support to 20 percent support since the beginning of the month." Siena New York 23rd Congressional District Poll: Race is Too Close to Call Between Owens & Hoffman | Room Eight

And this before she suspended operations. Yes, about 1 out of 5 support the GOP, which parallels data posted elsewhere on the Board. Apparently, not much joy in the future for the Republicans over the next year. Couldn't happen to stranger bunch of goombahs.

 

[LibocalypseNow]

Gingrich and his gang just tried some old school politics on this one. Old school Republicans like Newt Gingrich truly believe in that old "Any Republican is better than a Democrat" theory. The truth is that this woman was not better than the Democrat. The old school Republicans have to stop pushing that flawed theory on everyone. That kind of flawed mentality just gives you more frauds like Arlen Specter and Lindsey Graham. It's going to be hard but the Republicans need to change. The people just aren't buying Gingrich's old school stuff anymore. "Any Republican is better than a Democrat" just isn't always true. More people need to start considering themselves Independents. Stop voting for a candidate based solely on whether they have a (D) or an (R) by their name. Just do some real research and find out where the candidate stands on issues you care about. Basically just think for yourself and you will be ok. I'm definitely rooting for Mr. Hoffman. Go get em!