Voter fraud. What voter fraud? Oh, that voter fraud.
From the
Washington Post:
Could control of the Senate in 2014 be decided by illegal votes cast by non-citizens? Some argue that incidents of voting by non-citizens are so rare as to be inconsequential, with efforts to block fraud a screen for an agenda to prevent poor and minority voters from exercising the franchise, while others define such incidents as a threat to democracy itself. Both sides depend more heavily on anecdotes than data.
In a forthcoming article in the journal Electoral Studies, we bring real data from big social science survey datasets to bear on the question of whether, to what extent, and for whom non-citizens vote in U.S. elections. Most non-citizens do not register, let alone vote. But enough do that their participation can change the outcome of close races.
Our data comes from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES). Its large number of observations (32,800 in 2008 and 55,400 in 2010) provide sufficient samples of the non-immigrant sub-population, with 339 non-citizen respondents in 2008 and 489 in 2010. For the 2008 CCES, we also attempted to match respondents to voter files so that we could verify whether they actually voted.
How many non-citizens participate in U.S. elections? More than 14 percent of non-citizens in both the 2008 and 2010 samples indicated that they were registered to vote. Furthermore, some of these non-citizens voted. Our best guess, based upon extrapolations from the portion of the sample with a verified vote, is that 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008 and 2.2 percent of non-citizens voted in 2010.
Because non-citizens tended to favor Democrats (Obama won more than 80 percent of the votes of non-citizens in the 2008 CCES sample), we find that this participation was large enough to plausibly account for Democratic victories in a few close elections. Non-citizen votes could have given Senate Democrats the pivotal 60th vote needed to overcome filibusters in order to pass health-care reform and other Obama administration priorities in the 111th Congress. Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) won election in 2008 with a victory margin of 312 votes. Votes cast by just 0.65 percent of Minnesota non-citizens could account for this margin. It is also possible that non-citizen votes were responsible for Obama’s 2008 victory in North Carolina. Obama won the state by 14,177 votes, so a turnout by 5.1 percent of North Carolina’s adult non-citizens would have provided this victory margin.
Hmmm ... 339 non-citizens out of 32,800 poll respondents is 1.03%. 6.4% (whom the blogger guestimates may have actually voted) of that is 0.07%. Obama beat McCain 2,142,651 to 2,128,474 in North Carolina. Using the guestimates from this blogger would mean Obama received 2,260 votes from non-citizens compared to McCain's 565 votes; or a net gain for Obama of 1,695 votes ... nowhere near enough for McCain to have won North Carolina. Not to mention, Obama still would have easily won the election even had McCain won North Carolina. For a race to be affected by this, it would need to be a razor thin election, like the Franken/Coleman example.
Your analysis is wrong. The non-citizens proportion of the US is not 1%. Below is what you should be focusing on:
More than 14 percent of non-citizens in both the 2008 and 2010 samples indicated that they were registered to vote
This is what you're looking
for:
In 2009, 22 million people in the United States were noncitizens in one of three categories: legal permanent residents on the path to U.S. citizenship, legal temporary residents here for a limited time, and people here without authorization. (Authorized visitors, such as tourists, are not counted in the foreign-born population.)
Of those 22 million non-citizens, 14% are registered to vote, 3,080,000 non-citizen potential voters ready to cast a ballot.
Now you need to isolate those who vote from those who are merely registered to vote:
Our best guess, based upon extrapolations from the portion of the sample with a verified vote, is that 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008
Back to the 22 million non-citizens and 6.4% of them ACTUALLY VOTED, so 1,408,000 non-citizens voted in 2008.