New poll gives dems 4 reasons to fear 2014

[longknife]

The intensity gap favors Republicans in a big way.

Dems lead 45-44 on the generic ballot, but Dan Balz notes in his write-up for The Post that they had a 5-point lead on the eve of their 2010 shellacking.

Among those who say they are “certain” to vote, Republicans lead 49-44. Independents who say they’re certain to cast ballots favor a generic Republican by 23 points (55-32).

No matter what anyone sells, this seems to make more sense to me than almost anything else I've read on the subject. Republicans are more likely to go to the polls in November than Dems. And, even though the DNC will spend everything they can in their effort to rake voters to the polls, I don't think it'll be enough.

Read more: Why Democrats should worry about the ABC/Post poll - James Hohmann - POLITICO.com

 

[HenryBHough]

If Republicans want to ensure winning they should spend less on advertising and a bundle on hashish to hand out for free the night before the election. A stoned Democrat is a non-voting Democrat. And Democrats DIG "free".

 

[Moonglow]

count me in.......lol, I'll still vote...

 

[Luddly Neddite]

What favors the pubs is gerrymandering and vote theft.

That's what gave them the majority in the house.

 

[Derideo_Te]

The intensity gap favors Republicans in a big way.

Dems lead 45-44 on the generic ballot, but Dan Balz notes in his write-up for The Post that they had a 5-point lead on the eve of their 2010 shellacking.

Among those who say they are “certain” to vote, Republicans lead 49-44. Independents who say they’re certain to cast ballots favor a generic Republican by 23 points (55-32).

No matter what anyone sells, this seems to make more sense to me than almost anything else I've read on the subject. Republicans are more likely to go to the polls in November than Dems. And, even though the DNC will spend everything they can in their effort to rake voters to the polls, I don't think it'll be enough.

Read more: Why Democrats should worry about the ABC/Post poll - James Hohmann - POLITICO.com

The Republicans had an intensity advantage in 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2012. All it means is that the extreme right will vote no matter what.

Midterms lack motivation and therefore intensity trumps turnout. The GOP has nothing to worry about except it's own candidates. In essence 2014 is the Republican's election to lose. The reason I say that is because they lost the Senate because of the candidates they picked.

Yes, the odds are heavily in favor in the Republicans winning both houses but I would hedge my bets on the Senate even with this "intensity" factor.

 

[BreezeWood]

Boehner calls for House select committee to investigate Benghazi attacks - NY Daily News

and what Republicans fear the most is a renewed popularity for Obama.

.