New NBC Poll shows Christie has problems within the GOP

[JoeB131]

[

Only the left can complain and still benefit from something and escape being called a hypocrite.

What I benefit from is doing hard work and bringing expertise to the table.

Despite many of the brain dead decisions.

Case in point. the last company I worked for, the one that fired me after I ran up too many medical bills.

The reason they were in such dire straights to begin with is they made a huge bet that a 3 year contract that they had with one customer would continue on. They built new warehouses, they hired dozens of people, they even designed their computer program around this particular customer.

Nothing to do with me, but man, the rest of us paid for their bad judgement.

 

[JoeB131]

A job hooper huh? That's a red flag on resumes I review. I would for sure be calling your previous employer. The economy can be responsible for this, but at times, there are other issues present

-Geaux

Guy, your average American worker changes jobs every four years. Get with the program.

The notion of "lifetime jobs" is over and done with.

I do resumes for people. It's RARE that I see people who have less than two jobs on their resume in the last 12 years.

I did say the economy could be responsible in a particular field for multiple position changes.

But I don't manage an 'average' job function. Will just leave it at that.

-Geaux

Cleetus, I'm sure your position as "Crazy Possum Catcher" is secure.

 

[OODA_Loop]

By the way, I'd put my resume up against yours any day of the week. Betcha mine looks better.

No doubt. You mold facts to fit your narrative. Looks good. Peel the layers back and you don't produce.

It is why you have had a lifetime of employer issues where you feel it is them. Not you.

 

[JimH52]

Christie is an anti-gunner.

big government progressive

He is the best the GOP has, unless you think Cruz is.....

 

[jon_berzerk]

Christie is an anti-gunner.

big government progressive

He is the best the GOP has, unless you think Cruz is.....

it is along way til 2016

 

[JoeB131]

By the way, I'd put my resume up against yours any day of the week. Betcha mine looks better.

No doubt. You mold facts to fit your narrative. Looks good. Peel the layers back and you don't produce.

It is why you have had a lifetime of employer issues where you feel it is them. Not you.

No, it really is them. But you keep begging for those crumbs.

 

[OODA_Loop]

By the way, I'd put my resume up against yours any day of the week. Betcha mine looks better.

No doubt. You mold facts to fit your narrative. Looks good. Peel the layers back and you don't produce.

It is why you have had a lifetime of employer issues where you feel it is them. Not you.

No, it really is them. But you keep begging for those crumbs.

Crumbs = paid for house, private education for my children, headed to the F1 race in Texas tomorrow, 401k, freedom and discretionary income to do what I want within reason, carry no debt, college fund, retirement funds outside of 401k, investment land, new F-150, wife's new Volvo, smoking vintage 1960 Les Paul.....mmmmm crumbs.

The biggest crumb is my employer values me and will do what it takes to keep my contribution. mmmm crumbs

 

[candycorn]

NBC poll: Christie faces divided GOP, trails Clinton in hypothetical '16 race - First Read

There’s also a striking geographical divide: A majority of Northeast Republicans (57 percent to 22 percent) say they would support Christie in a GOP primary.

But pluralities of Republicans in other parts of the country prefer another GOP candidate – in the Midwest (by 35 percent to 30 percent), the South (29 percent to 27 percent) and the West (40 percent to 22 percent).

On Monday, The New York Times highlighted this Republican split over Christie, especially after establishment Republicans have cheered his possible 2016 candidacy.

But the split within the GOP goes much deeper than just Christie. It is TP against the Establishment. It is Ultra-Conservative against the Moderates. It is Karl Rove against....well, whatever loon the Baggers try to push through the Primaries. COOL!

Christie's big problem is the electoral calendar. He won't win in Iowa; New Hampshire will be a battle royale where whoever wins won't be by much; and SC is another loser for hiim.

National campaigns are tied to momentum as much as anything else in the early going. He's not going to have it and there will be a lot of money on the sidelines that won't be too eager to hand it over to Christie if he looks like a lame horse.

I posted this in another thread but here it goes again:

These are safe states for Christie if he's in the race at the time they are held--he should do well (depending on the other candidates/gaffes/ and x factors)

Delegates
CA 172
NY 95
PA 71
IL 68
OH 65
MI 58
NJ 50
WA 43
MD 37
CT 28
DC 19
RI 19
VT 16
DE 16

He's going to get the majority of the 757 delegates up for grabs... Not sure how many of the above are "Winner Take All". In those states, it benefits him.

The next group are states that I think he will have to work hard to get but are gettable:

FL 98
NC 71
AZ 56
MO 52
VA 49
MA 41
WI 41
KS 38
MN 37
CO 35
IA 28
OR 28
NM 22
NH 21
ME 19
HI 19
AMS 9
VI 9
NMI 9
GUAM 9

That is 691 delegates.

It takes 1205 to win the Nom... Combined with the 757 in the first group, That is 1,488. I don't think he's going to get 83% of the delegates (I don't think they are all winner take all and he likely wouldn't take them all anyway). If Rubio/Bush are on the ticket, Florida could be a total washout forh him.

So he has to win some delegates from the 3rd group to win outright.

TX 153
GA 74
IN 57
TN 56
SC 48
AL 48
LA 45
KY 44
OK 41
UT 40
MS 38
AR 38
NE 34
WV 31
ID 30
ND 28
SD 27
WY 27
NV 27
AK 26
MT 26
PR 23

That is a lot of South and Western states. He's going to have to do some serious campaigning to win any of them. So it's likely not going to be settled in the primaries if Christie is going to be the nominee.

---

The problem I'm having in handicapping the field in 2013 is this; if not Christie; who?

Who can get to 1,205? The only other viable "of course' candidate I see in 2013 is Jeb Bush.

Bush:

Good in all time zones; Check
Name Recognition; Check
Gravitas--heavy weight credentials; Check
Cross-cultural appeal; Check
Wants the job;....TBD

 

[JoeB131]

Wow, Oozda, you really don't realize what a peasent you are, do you?

"I done got me a pickup truck!!!"

 

[Stephanie]

good grief, they haven't got Ofailcare up and running and now they want to talk Presidential elections

good way to take the heat off Democrats and the Dear leader I suppose

so damn predictable of the media and Democrat sheep

 

[JoeB131]

good grief, they haven't got Ofailcare up and running and now they want to talk Presidential elections

good way to take the heat off Democrats and the Dear leader I suppose

so damn predictable of the media and Democrat sheep

Some of us can chew gum and walk.

And by January, no one will be talking about ObamaCare anymore.

 

[007]

.

Christie would be the GOP's best shot against Hillary, but even if he made it through the nomination process, he'd be so beat to shit (by his own party) that she'd walk right over him.

The GOP really needs to decide what it is.

.

I can tell you right now, neither fat ass or the wicked witch of the east will be the final nominees. 2016 is a LOOOOOOOONG way away.

I'd say among the right, Cruz, Paul, Dr. Carson, one of those has about the best shot, and on the left... well... pick any one but hitlery, they'll squeeze her out again just like they did against obama. She's damaged goods with Benghazi hanging around her neck, WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE, and she's too old.

 

[zeke]

.

We should all be working for the government.

After all, they care.

.

Oh look. The Big Mac has thrown out a "Straw Man".

Cool Big Mac. Just don't be complaining about straw men (which you really like to do) when others do the same. They are just the nature of the beast.

 

[OODA_Loop]

Wow, Oozda, you really don't realize what a peasent you are, do you?

"I done got me a pickup truck!!!"

Peasent ? And you are a "professional writer".

 

[007]

Wow, Oozda, you really don't realize what a peasent you are, do you?

"I done got me a pickup truck!!!"

Peasent ? And you are "professional writer".

Joe is a commie, but likes to brag like a capitalist, he's confused.

 

[JakeStarkey]

007 is the one confused. Paid by the govt all his adult life, cheering the TeaPoCraps when closing the government, then complaining the govt is not paying him.

Get your head straight, 007.

 

[Avatar4321]

Your powers of deduction are exceptional. It takes a poll to tell you the obvious.

And we wonder why America is in the state it's in.

 

[JimH52]

good grief, they haven't got Ofailcare up and running and now they want to talk Presidential elections

good way to take the heat off Democrats and the Dear leader I suppose

so damn predictable of the media and Democrat sheep

Thank goodness you replied to this thread! We needed your solid, yet lame, opinion. If it isn't Christie, who is it? Cruz Palin Limbaugh?????

What about McCain again? He is hinting at it...you know.

 

[Mac1958]

.

We should all be working for the government.

After all, they care.

.

Oh look. The Big Mac has thrown out a "Straw Man".

Cool Big Mac. Just don't be complaining about straw men (which you really like to do) when others do the same. They are just the nature of the beast.

My goodness, you certainly do monitor my posts carefully. I look at that as a compliment.

Wasn't meant as a straw man. I think there are many people who agree with that, or would agree with that if they were willing to say what they're thinking.

So are you going to deny that there are people in this country who would agree with that? And would I count you as someone who would disagree with that?

See, a straw man is an absurd statement that essentially puts untrue (or even impossible) words in the mouth of someone else. What I wrote was neither absurd nor untrue.

Nice try though, and I do appreciate your attention.

.

 

[auditor0007]

NBC poll: Christie faces divided GOP, trails Clinton in hypothetical '16 race - First Read

There’s also a striking geographical divide: A majority of Northeast Republicans (57 percent to 22 percent) say they would support Christie in a GOP primary.

But pluralities of Republicans in other parts of the country prefer another GOP candidate – in the Midwest (by 35 percent to 30 percent), the South (29 percent to 27 percent) and the West (40 percent to 22 percent).

On Monday, The New York Times highlighted this Republican split over Christie, especially after establishment Republicans have cheered his possible 2016 candidacy.

But the split within the GOP goes much deeper than just Christie. It is TP against the Establishment. It is Ultra-Conservative against the Moderates. It is Karl Rove against....well, whatever loon the Baggers try to push through the Primaries. COOL!

Christie's big problem is the electoral calendar. He won't win in Iowa; New Hampshire will be a battle royale where whoever wins won't be by much; and SC is another loser for hiim.

National campaigns are tied to momentum as much as anything else in the early going. He's not going to have it and there will be a lot of money on the sidelines that won't be too eager to hand it over to Christie if he looks like a lame horse.

I posted this in another thread but here it goes again:

These are safe states for Christie if he's in the race at the time they are held--he should do well (depending on the other candidates/gaffes/ and x factors)

Delegates
CA 172
NY 95
PA 71
IL 68
OH 65
MI 58
NJ 50
WA 43
MD 37
CT 28
DC 19
RI 19
VT 16
DE 16

He's going to get the majority of the 757 delegates up for grabs... Not sure how many of the above are "Winner Take All". In those states, it benefits him.

The next group are states that I think he will have to work hard to get but are gettable:

FL 98
NC 71
AZ 56
MO 52
VA 49
MA 41
WI 41
KS 38
MN 37
CO 35
IA 28
OR 28
NM 22
NH 21
ME 19
HI 19
AMS 9
VI 9
NMI 9
GUAM 9

That is 691 delegates.

It takes 1205 to win the Nom... Combined with the 757 in the first group, That is 1,488. I don't think he's going to get 83% of the delegates (I don't think they are all winner take all and he likely wouldn't take them all anyway). If Rubio/Bush are on the ticket, Florida could be a total washout forh him.

So he has to win some delegates from the 3rd group to win outright.

TX 153
GA 74
IN 57
TN 56
SC 48
AL 48
LA 45
KY 44
OK 41
UT 40
MS 38
AR 38
NE 34
WV 31
ID 30
ND 28
SD 27
WY 27
NV 27
AK 26
MT 26
PR 23

That is a lot of South and Western states. He's going to have to do some serious campaigning to win any of them. So it's likely not going to be settled in the primaries if Christie is going to be the nominee.

---

The problem I'm having in handicapping the field in 2013 is this; if not Christie; who?

Who can get to 1,205? The only other viable "of course' candidate I see in 2013 is Jeb Bush.

Bush:

Good in all time zones; Check
Name Recognition; Check
Gravitas--heavy weight credentials; Check
Cross-cultural appeal; Check
Wants the job;....TBD

If Jeb didn't have a brother named George, he would be the favorite. In truth, he is not at all like his brother and would probably make a decent president, but I do not see him having any shot in the general election if he could somehow win the nomination.

Republicans have a very big problem, because so many of them want a true to the core conservative while half the party can't stand those true to the core conservatives. On top of that, those who fit the bill are not likable people, namely Rubio and Cruz, although there are a few others. There is only one who I could see capable of bridging that gap and actually getting the party united, but he has stated that he is not interested in running. He also lacks the big name recognition, but that would not be a problem if he decided to run as I believe the money would come rolling in for him. That person would be John Thune. He is pretty hard core conservative, but he isn't a nasty person and he hasn't made too many enemies, so he could be appealing to moderate independents who are not happy with the Dems.