Nate Silver Say... Everything Nate Silver goes here

[NYcarbineer]

Why doesnt he just bump it up to 100 percent. His methodologies have contradicting inverse relationships that vary widely. But, statisticians have an out. When he loses he can easily point to that 13 percent without having to be accountable. What a deal.[/QUOTE

Are you denying that the late/final averages of the state polls have a measurable track record of accuracy based on historical results?

Why would you deny that?

 

[decker]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

But please don't cancel the GOP Victory Parties. Your purchases will help create more jobs.

well i am more confident then last week but nowhere near as much then nate is

its a 50/50 election for me and although i think president had a good week , i just hope dems can get turn out on the day. That what worriess me. That potential lead in early voting won,t matter if dem are low on turn out in key states like ohio.

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

Don't give a fuck what he thinks.

Ah but if it was gallup or ras we would have 20 threads on that shit because you would care then.....

Cherry pickers.

Those are credible pollsters with YEARS of expeeience. Nate is a left wing god apparently but that still does not equate to experience or credibility

 

[decker]

Friday’s polling should make it easy to discern why Mr. Obama has the Electoral College advantage. There were 22 polls of swing states published Friday. Of these, Mr. Obama led in 19 polls, and two showed a tie. Mitt Romney led in just one of the surveys, a Mason-Dixon poll of Florida.

[These polls] represent powerful evidence against the idea that the race is a “tossup.” A tossup race isn’t likely to produce 19 leads for one candidate and one for the other — any more than a fair coin is likely to come up heads 19 times and tails just once in 20 tosses. (The probability of a fair coin doing so is about 1 chance in 50,000.)

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

The strong jobs data, the president’s adroit handling of the storm – according to New Jersey’s republican governor – and a faltering Romney campaign are clearly trending the numbers toward the president.

Given this data and evidence, it’s perfectly appropriate for democrats to expect Obama to be re-elected this Tuesday.

well obama had a better week but it still 5-0/50 election and it going to be who get their turn out on tuesday.

next 72 hours are going to be huge from both sides before election day.

 

[blackhawk]

People can cite all the polls they want they and give as many opinions on them as they want no longer matter. I will repeat a response Scott Rasmussen gave earlier this week when he was asked who would win the election his answer I don't know and anyone who claims they do is either lying or deluding themselves. There is only one poll left that matters now the one on Tuesday.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Why doesnt he just bump it up to 100 percent. His methodologies have contradicting inverse relationships that vary widely. But, statisticians have an out. When he loses he can easily point to that 13 percent without having to be accountable. What a deal.

You haven't a clue about his methodology or his model. The base of his model is to weigh the various polls, based on their past accuracy. It's really that simple. There's no contradicting inverse relationship there.

Yes there is.

 

[EriktheRed]

Don't give a fuck what he thinks.

Ah but if it was gallup or ras we would have 20 threads on that shit because you would care then.....

Cherry pickers.

Those are credible pollsters with YEARS of expeeience. Nate is a left wing god apparently but that still does not equate to experience or credibility

He's not a pollster himself, dumbass.

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

Ah but if it was gallup or ras we would have 20 threads on that shit because you would care then.....

Cherry pickers.

Those are credible pollsters with YEARS of expeeience. Nate is a left wing god apparently but that still does not equate to experience or credibility

He's not a pollster himself, dumbass.

Way to point out the obvious Sherlock.

 

[decker]

Those are credible pollsters with YEARS of expeeience. Nate is a left wing god apparently but that still does not equate to experience or credibility

He's not a pollster himself, dumbass.

Way to point out the obvious Sherlock.

in end it all about turn out on the day

obama team need to work 72 hours to work on getting turn out in ohio, wi, pa,mi and nev. got to fight for those states like their lives depend on it. need get bigger rallies and more ground game going

 

[mamooth]

If the polls are not biased, then Obama is the winner. The sheer volume of statistics is too overwhelming to deny that. Odds are something like one in a thousand that random noise alone could show this kind of Obama swing state lead among all the polls.

So, conservatives have to pin their hopes on the polls being somehow biased, even though they haven't been biased before, and they're not doing anything differently. Good luck with that.

 

[EriktheRed]

Those are credible pollsters with YEARS of expeeience. Nate is a left wing god apparently but that still does not equate to experience or credibility

He's not a pollster himself, dumbass.

Way to point out the obvious Sherlock.

He uses Gallup and Rasmussen in his methodology. You and the others dissing the guy don't wtf you're talking about when you put him down. He's not partisan, he's GOOD. Tough shit if you don't like where his conclusions go.

 

[EriktheRed]

Why doesnt he just bump it up to 100 percent. His methodologies have contradicting inverse relationships that vary widely. But, statisticians have an out. When he loses he can easily point to that 13 percent without having to be accountable. What a deal.

You haven't a clue about his methodology or his model. The base of his model is to weigh the various polls, based on their past accuracy. It's really that simple. There's no contradicting inverse relationship there.

Yes there is.

You got more to back up your assertion than "Yes there is"?

 

[PredFan]

We should get this info out right away. Obama is sure to win so there's no reason for obama supporters to vote now. Don't waste your time people, stay home and count your EBT cards.

 

[Plasmaball]

Don't give a fuck what he thinks.

Ah but if it was gallup or ras we would have 20 threads on that shit because you would care then.....

Cherry pickers.

Those are credible pollsters with YEARS of expeeience. Nate is a left wing god apparently but that still does not equate to experience or credibility

And there we have it.....and you wonder why people think you a partisan.

 

[decker]

If the polls are not biased, then Obama is the winner. The sheer volume of statistics is too overwhelming to deny that. Odds are something like one in a thousand that random noise alone could show this kind of Obama swing state lead among all the polls.

So, conservatives have to pin their hopes on the polls being somehow biased, even though they haven't been biased before, and they're not doing anything differently. Good luck with that.

well i hope their right. only caution i say is exist polls in ohio had john kerry 52 % to 48% ahead in 2004 on election day. he went on to lose the state

so obama team need to fight every day to get turn out. also get bigger rallies to make it look better on tv.

 

[decker]

We should get this info out right away. Obama is sure to win so there's no reason for obama supporters to vote now. Don't waste your time people, stay home and count your EBT cards.

clever but hope they don,t listen to you. supporters need come out for obama pn electipon day. gop turn out could be far bigger on the day and that could decide it. So get the turn out obama people. get it out.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Don't give a fuck what he thinks.

Ah but if it was gallup or ras we would have 20 threads on that shit because you would care then.....

Cherry pickers.

Those are credible pollsters with YEARS of expeeience. Nate is a left wing god apparently but that still does not equate to experience or credibility

Okay, let's base Rasmussen's current battleground state poll numbers on their 2008 record in the polls:


Rasmussen's record in some battleground state polls in 2008:

Final 2008 Rasmussen poll vs. real result:

Colorado - Obama +4, Obama +8.5 - Rasmussen misses by 4.5 in McCain's favor

Florida - McCain +1, Obama 2.5 - Rasmussen misses by 3.5 in McCain's favor

Michigan - Obama +10, Obama +16.5 - Rasmussen misses by 6.5 in McCain's favor

Nevada - Obama +4, Obama +12.4 - Rasmussen misses by 8.4 in McCain's favor

N. Hampshire Obama +7, Obama +9.5 - Rasmussen misses by 2.5 in McCain's favor

New Mexico - Obama +10, Obama +14.7 - Rasmussen misses by 4.7 in McCain's favor

North Carolina - McCain +1, Obama +.4 - Rasmussen misses by 1.4 in McCain's favor

Ohio - TIE, Obama +4 - Rasmussen misses by 4 in McCain's favor

Penna - Obama +6, Obama +10.4 - Rasmussen misses by 4.4 in McCain's favor

Virginia - Obama +4, Obama +6.3 - Rasmussen misses by 2.3 in McCain's favor

Wisconsin - Obama +7, Obama +13.9 - Rasmussen misses by 6.9 in McCain's favor.

Looks to me like Rasmussen's reliability is that they're reliably biased towards the GOP.

 

[PredFan]

We should get this info out right away. Obama is sure to win so there's no reason for obama supporters to vote now. Don't waste your time people, stay home and count your EBT cards.

clever but hope they don,t listen to you. supporters need come out for obama pn electipon day. gop turn out could be far bigger on the day and that could decide it. So get the turn out obama people. get it out.

Why bother? Nate says it's a 71% obama victory.

You should just stay home.

 

[NYcarbineer]

[well i hope their right. only caution i say is exist polls in ohio had john kerry 52 % to 48% ahead in 2004 on election day. he went on to lose the state

That's because they polled the voters, not the machines.

 

[decker]

We should get this info out right away. Obama is sure to win so there's no reason for obama supporters to vote now. Don't waste your time people, stay home and count your EBT cards.

clever but hope they don,t listen to you. supporters need come out for obama pn electipon day. gop turn out could be far bigger on the day and that could decide it. So get the turn out obama people. get it out.

Why bother? Nate says it's a 71% obama victory.

You should just stay home.

well i hope dems don,t listen to nate and get out. this is 50/50 election and gop could overwhelm the dems on election day on turning out their base

again to robert gobbs and team. get the base out. get the base out. you must or its defeat