The naivete (or is it ignorance?) on this topic is stunning.
When wages artificially increase (and they will), the first thing most businesses with a significant amount of lower-wage workers will do is cut hours. They will not increase prices yet. They will obviously slow hiring or only hire people who are willing to work fewer hours. Maybe cut benefits. Then they'll watch for a while and see how this plays out.
If they are still squeezed, the next thing they will do is drop lower-end staff and look at either discovering or purchasing efficiencies, ways to produce more with less.
Only after they have done all of the above will they increase prices to any significant degree.
The workers on the lower end will just have to deal with fewer hours and/or look for a new job. Or they could start their own business. There are only so many moving parts here.
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We have increased min wage many times. This has never lead to an increase in unemployment.
Link?
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The Impact of Increasing the Minimum Wage on Unemployment No Evidence of Harm An Economic Sense
Full time workers in minimum wage jobs are poor, despite their evident willingness to work. Even if the minimum wage is raised to $9.00 an hour from the current $7.25 an hour, as Obama has proposed, these working poor will still be earning well less than poverty line income. And bringing the minimum wage to $9.00 an hour will only bring it back to where it was more than a half century ago.
Real GDP per capita has more than doubled over this period. Yet minimum wage workers are currently earning 20% less.
Rigorous empirical studies do not show that increasing the minimum wage by an amount such as this will lead to an increase in unemployment of such workers. Nor does one see such an increase in unemployment in a more casual examination of the evidence, such as in the graphs above. While the poor need more assistance than just from this, increasing the minimum wage as Obama has proposed would certainly be an important help.
That's precisely the type of evidence I was expecting, because raw, empirical evidence does not and cannot measure
what does not happen. In other words, there is no way to measure cause and effect here, unless you can show me what a business
would have done in a different environment.
Business react to higher employee costs in the way I described. They don't just "absorb" the costs - as I keep reading - the money has to come from somewhere, and I described the most likely process. The most obvious example of my point is automation. Like water in a stream, a business has to look for the easiest movement of its cash flow.
I'm not arguing against minimum wage or increases in it. My point is that empirical data completely misses/ignores business psychology, and that's where decisions are often made.
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