Dr.Traveler
Mathematician
- Aug 31, 2009
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I've seen this start to be debated on other forums, but I'm curious: Is Hillary Clinton Lucky or Good?
As a starting point: She's leading Trump in the RCP Polling average by 5.9 points. In the 4 way average she leads by 4.3 points. She's leading the Electoral Vote count at Electoral-Vote.com by 343-195. In the FiveThirtyEight models she's got a 77% chance of winning in Polls-Plus and 85.4% chance of winning in Polls only.
That's an incredible lead at this point.
But the question is this: Is she leading but she's that strong of a candidate? Or because she's lucky to be facing a terrible candidate in Trump?
My opinion: She's lucky. She's clearly qualified to run and clearly knows how to play the game, but she makes a lot of unforced errors. She's not a very warm person. She avoids press conferences like the plague. I think against a generic Republican she'd be struggling right now.
As a starting point: She's leading Trump in the RCP Polling average by 5.9 points. In the 4 way average she leads by 4.3 points. She's leading the Electoral Vote count at Electoral-Vote.com by 343-195. In the FiveThirtyEight models she's got a 77% chance of winning in Polls-Plus and 85.4% chance of winning in Polls only.
That's an incredible lead at this point.
But the question is this: Is she leading but she's that strong of a candidate? Or because she's lucky to be facing a terrible candidate in Trump?
My opinion: She's lucky. She's clearly qualified to run and clearly knows how to play the game, but she makes a lot of unforced errors. She's not a very warm person. She avoids press conferences like the plague. I think against a generic Republican she'd be struggling right now.