No one is a fan of the lockdowns. Some people just love their mothers, fathers, grandmothers and grandfathers and are not eager to sacrifice them to President Trump's reelection campaign.
250 million people world wide are going to be starving if we don’t get our food supply flowing like it was before the lockdown. How long do you expect to keep grandparents away from their grandkids? This is no where near as simple as you claim it to be.
7.8 billion people world wide are looking at a pandemic right now. We might want to end that first.
And only around 46.8 million of the most unhealthy people are looking at death from covid, vs the 3x that amount, 250 million, infants to elderly, are looking at starving to death. 68 million in this country alone are looking at crippling unemployment.
And that's just our country. Anyone who thinks the US economy can collapse without taking every other country with it is high as balls and hallucinating.
Anybody who thinks the economy can be fully productive when people are scared to go to work because they could get sick or die is high as balls and hallucinating.
That is silly.
When only 70k out of 330 million have died, that only 0.021%.
That means only 2 out of every 10,000 people have died.
No one would be scared about going to work if they were not constantly be lied to and facing hysterical propaganda.
And the culprit is obvious.
When a vaccine is available, think about the profits from selling 330 million anxious customers, a vaccine at $100 a shot?
It's not the number that have died that concerns people, it's number that will die. One does not have to be a scientist or a visionary to see where we're going. The average number of covid 19 deaths per day in the US averaged over the last 2 weeks has been 1650/day. If that death rate continues without increasing due to opening up the country, the death toll will rise to 240,000 by the middle of August and exceed 450,000 by the end of the year. And that's if we're successful in opening the country so the death rate does not increase.
But there are two questions that need to be addressed in that.
One, are the lockdowns actually saving people from dying, or are they just delaying it a little? I mean, we've been locked down to varying degrees for a while now, and cases and deaths keep coming up. And whatever the leftists might like to believe, they aren't concentrated in the areas with less-strict lockdowns. If the lockdowns are delaying people getting it and dying from it, that works IF a vaccine or cure is going to come along soon. Otherwise, the end result is going to be the same.
Two, what about the deaths caused by the lockdowns themselves? Anyone who pretends that reopen vs lockdown is a binary choice between deaths vs no deaths is drunk.
I agree. Lock downs or partial openings of economy only delay new cases and deaths until such time as we have a vaccine to prevent covid19, and/or antivirals to treat it. With over 50 different organization developing vaccines and dozens of drug companies working on antivirals, we are almost certain to have a few next year. Once we do, we will begin saving a lot of lives and building confidence in the safety of both consumers, and workers. Then and only then will we see our lives return to normal and long term economic growth.
IMHO, if we completely open up the country, we certainly would have increases in number cases and deaths and consumers would be very reluctant consumers. People would go to the groceries stores because they feel they need to and yes they would dine out occasionally, go to sporting events, and other activities but they would be reluctance to do so fueled by daily reports of rising number deaths and cases. In the end it will consumers, not goverment or business that decide whether the country opens and stays open.
I don't know any way of determining how many deaths occur do to lock-downs. My gut feel is they are a lot less than 75,000 every two months.
I would love to think there's going to be a vaccine or antiviral coming down the pike, particularly within the next year. However, I'm very concerned by reports that the coronavirus is mutating. That is what both cold and flu viruses do, and that's the reason why there are no hard-and-fast, effective treatments for either. Yes, we have flu vaccines that come out every year, but they're only for one strain based on what the scientists
guess will be the dominant strain (sometimes they're wrong), and doesn't do crap against any other strains that might also be active. What happens if that's the case with Covid-19?
I don't think your gut is necessarily operating on complete information. First of all, no one outside of a few hyperbolic protesters is suggesting re-opening willy-nilly and immediately trying to go back to things exactly as they were before. I really doubt most people would be inclined to do that right out of the gate, even if they were told they could, because they're scared and because most people aren't that stupid and careless. The states that are moving to re-open are maintaining social distancing, wearing masks, sanitizing, etc.
Second of all, I don't think you've really contemplated the far-reaching effects of economic collapse if you assume that Covid-19 deaths are worse. Suicide hotlines are already reporting that their call volume has gone up 1000%. No, that's not a typo; that's "1000" with three zeros. We're already getting increased reports of domestic violence, and even deaths from domestic violence. Sociologists are advising us that we will be seeing increased incidences of alcohol and drug abuse, which didn't exactly take a genius to figure out. Hospitals are closing down, because people aren't coming in for treatment for anything but Covid-19. How many people are going to die because the medical care they needed was no longer available? Our food supply chains are breaking down, and I don't just means it takes longer to get it to the stores to stock. I mean food is rotting or being destroyed in the fields; animals are being slaughtered and composted instead of sent to the processing plant. If that trend continues, pretty soon there will be virtually no food to stock, and what there is will be really expensive. That means the poorer you are, the more likely you're going to become to starve or to be seriously malnourished, especially the children. Sure, normally in the United States, you would be able to turn to food banks and other charities, or to the government, to get assistance. But charities are dependent on donations to function; where are they going to get those donations with the economy at a virtual standstill and record tens of millions of people out of work and without income? Likewise, the government gets its money from taxes and borrowing. But what are they going to tax if no one's working? Who is going to buy our debt, knowing that we have no tax base right now? And that's leaving aside the massive amounts of new debt the government has already taken on in this crisis.
And while we're on the subject of no one wanting to buy our debt if we have no tax base, who is even going to be ABLE to buy our debt if our economy goes down? Economics is a delicately balanced, interwoven web. If we go down, everyone else is going down with us. Third-world nations already have rampant death from starvation and disease, with US charitable aid - both government and private - as the only thing keeping them going. Would you like to bet that just ONE African country dependent on our help can top your coronavirus death numbers without us? How about the countries whose economies are dependent on US-owned manufacturing, or those whose economies depend on trading with the US? They aren't third-world right now, but how long would it take for them to slide down to that level if we go broke?
I know to a lot of people, this sounds like an extreme doomsday prepper fantasy that could never really happen. I wish it sounded that way to me. But unfortunately, it is all too possible, wouldn't take too much more than what we already have, and we're already seeing the signs of the beginning.
By the way, on a side note, I'd like to thank you for actually posting seriously and thoughtfully on the questions I posed, and making it possible to have a rational discussion on this subject. Sadly, you seem to be the only one so far.