Liberal darling Nate Silver has Trump up 55%-45%.

[Nostra]

He is calling out pollsters for fudging their numbers to make it look like a close race.

He does hedge his bets a little on swing states.


Polling guru Nate Silver lashed out at other survey junkies in his field for “cheating” in the final stretch of the 2024 presidential election — accusing them of recycling some results to keep the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris close.

The FiveThirtyEight founder said irresponsible pollsters were “herding” their numbers, or using past results to affect current ones, to keep Vice President Harris and former President Trump within a point or two of each other each time.

“I kind of trust pollsters less,” Silver said on his podcast, name-checking Emerson College. “They all, every time a pollster [says] ‘Oh, every state is just plus-one, every single state’s a tie,’ no! You’re f–king herding! You’re cheating! You’re cheating!” he fumed.

“You are lying! You’re putting your f–king finger on the scale!'”

Silver’s own vaunted model puts Trump ahead of Harris, 55% to 45%, as voters prepare to head to the polls in just three days.

Election guru Nate Silver accuses pollsters of putting ‘finger on the scale,’ lying to keep presidential race close

Polling guru Nate Silver lashed out at other survey junkies in his field for “cheating” in the final stretch of the 2024 presidential election — accusing them of recycling some re…

nypost.com

 

[luiza]

A bit nearer 60% Nat , though who am I to question the most reliable past poster .

 

[Billy000]

He is calling out pollsters for fudging their numbers to make it look like a close race.

He does hedge his bets a little on swing states.


Polling guru Nate Silver lashed out at other survey junkies in his field for “cheating” in the final stretch of the 2024 presidential election — accusing them of recycling some results to keep the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris close.

The FiveThirtyEight founder said irresponsible pollsters were “herding” their numbers, or using past results to affect current ones, to keep Vice President Harris and former President Trump within a point or two of each other each time.

“I kind of trust pollsters less,” Silver said on his podcast, name-checking Emerson College. “They all, every time a pollster [says] ‘Oh, every state is just plus-one, every single state’s a tie,’ no! You’re f–king herding! You’re cheating! You’re cheating!” he fumed.

“You are lying! You’re putting your f–king finger on the scale!'”

Silver’s own vaunted model puts Trump ahead of Harris, 55% to 45%, as voters prepare to head to the polls in just three days.

Election guru Nate Silver accuses pollsters of putting ‘finger on the scale,’ lying to keep presidential race close

Polling guru Nate Silver lashed out at other survey junkies in his field for “cheating” in the final stretch of the 2024 presidential election — accusing them of recycling some re…

nypost.com

I imagine this must be very confusing for you in the sense you think liberals are always wrong. Now we have a case where a liberal offers a favorable narrative about Trump. That should mean you should just listen to liberals from now on, but you won’t because you childish idiots will only cherry pick stuff like this.

“See! Even a liberal like Silver is saying Trump will win!”

Now picture a non-partisan political strategist showing favorable data for democrats:

“The early vote in PA shows that female voters outnumber male voters 2-1 with most of them being democrat.”

Republican response: “shut up libtard! You’re just mad Hillary lost!”

 

[Billy000]

He is calling out pollsters for fudging their numbers to make it look like a close race.

He does hedge his bets a little on swing states.


Polling guru Nate Silver lashed out at other survey junkies in his field for “cheating” in the final stretch of the 2024 presidential election — accusing them of recycling some results to keep the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris close.

The FiveThirtyEight founder said irresponsible pollsters were “herding” their numbers, or using past results to affect current ones, to keep Vice President Harris and former President Trump within a point or two of each other each time.

“I kind of trust pollsters less,” Silver said on his podcast, name-checking Emerson College. “They all, every time a pollster [says] ‘Oh, every state is just plus-one, every single state’s a tie,’ no! You’re f–king herding! You’re cheating! You’re cheating!” he fumed.

“You are lying! You’re putting your f–king finger on the scale!'”

Silver’s own vaunted model puts Trump ahead of Harris, 55% to 45%, as voters prepare to head to the polls in just three days.

Election guru Nate Silver accuses pollsters of putting ‘finger on the scale,’ lying to keep presidential race close

Polling guru Nate Silver lashed out at other survey junkies in his field for “cheating” in the final stretch of the 2024 presidential election — accusing them of recycling some re…

nypost.com

Someone also needs to point out to you how statistically insignificant this actually is. It’s significantly no better than if it was an even 50-50 split or if it was Harris who had 55% instead. It’s completely the same as a coin flip. Silver himself makes this clear lol

 

[MarathonMike]

He is calling out pollsters for fudging their numbers to make it look like a close race.

He does hedge his bets a little on swing states.


Polling guru Nate Silver lashed out at other survey junkies in his field for “cheating” in the final stretch of the 2024 presidential election — accusing them of recycling some results to keep the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris close.

The FiveThirtyEight founder said irresponsible pollsters were “herding” their numbers, or using past results to affect current ones, to keep Vice President Harris and former President Trump within a point or two of each other each time.

“I kind of trust pollsters less,” Silver said on his podcast, name-checking Emerson College. “They all, every time a pollster [says] ‘Oh, every state is just plus-one, every single state’s a tie,’ no! You’re f–king herding! You’re cheating! You’re cheating!” he fumed.

“You are lying! You’re putting your f–king finger on the scale!'”

Silver’s own vaunted model puts Trump ahead of Harris, 55% to 45%, as voters prepare to head to the polls in just three days.

Election guru Nate Silver accuses pollsters of putting ‘finger on the scale,’ lying to keep presidential race close

Polling guru Nate Silver lashed out at other survey junkies in his field for “cheating” in the final stretch of the 2024 presidential election — accusing them of recycling some re…

nypost.com

Biden won the popular vote in 2020 by nearly 5 percent. Trump is AHEAD in the final popular vote poll by 0.2 percent. That is a swing of several million votes to Trump, I don't see how this election is going to be close.

 

[ZestolPastilevsky]

Yeah, but Nate was horribly wrong in 2016.

 

[toobfreak]

Liberal darling Nate Silver has Trump up 55%-45%.​

He is calling out pollsters for fudging their numbers to make it look like a close race.

I have to say, by EVERY indicator, news, democrats themselves, election experts, polling analysts, crowds, rallies, swing states, street interviews, polls themselves, both on right and left leaning media, they have Trump winning. Sometimes winning by a LOT, sometimes just with an edge, but almost nowhere except in the far left media firmly in her back pocket do I see Harris claimed with the edge anywhere and anything to brag about.

At the very LEAST, this would make me very nervous as a democrat. By every measure, I WOULD expect Trump with a clear, leading edge! So:

1. Either all the polls are wrong or are being artificially rigged close to keep democrat's spirits high.
2. They somehow have planned another 6AM surge for Harris as truckloads of lost ballots are again found.

 

[boevans]

Nate Silver is wrong. Watch.

 

[toobfreak]

Biden won the popular vote in 2020 by nearly 5 percent. Trump is AHEAD in the final popular vote poll by 0.2 percent. That is a swing of several million votes to Trump, I don't see how this election is going to be close.

I have seen stats that all kinds of groups that the democrats usually have and COUNT on all moving en masse for DJT, everyone from blacks to Hispanics to even a lot of former democrats changing parties to Republican!

This has all the appearance of a potential LANDSLIDE for Trump, but then 2022 looked like a landslide too, the Big Red Wave, and it should have been--- Biden was such a disaster, but I have heard that republicans are their own worse enemy that many just don't bother to vote and are easily manipulated by the democrats.

It may be that this SHOULD be a landslide for the GOP and that the only people who can snatch defeat from the mouth of victory are REPUBLICANS themselves, and just look at the likes of Cheney, Kinzinger and others in the GOP who have attacked Trump while siding with Harris! Calling HER the "safe bet!" I mean-- C'MON!

So I am cautious in my optimism--- I have learned never to underestimate how republicans can screw their own pooch or the democrat's capacity to lie, manipulate and cheat.

 

[Nostra]

I imagine this must be very confusing for you in the sense you think liberals are always wrong. Now we have a case where a liberal offers a favorable narrative about Trump. That should mean you should just listen to liberals from now on, but you won’t because you childish idiots will only cherry pick stuff like this.

“See! Even a liberal like Silver is saying Trump will win!”

Now picture a non-partisan political strategist showing favorable data for democrats:

“The early vote in PA shows that female voters outnumber male voters 2-1 with most of them being democrat.”

Republican response: “shut up libtard! You’re just mad Hillary lost!”

Nate sure did trigger you.

 

[Billy000]

Nate sure did trigger you.

So how did he trigger me?

 

[HikerGuy83]

So how did he trigger me?

You typed something.

 

[Nostra]

So how did he trigger me?

Told you Knee Pads is likely to lose.

 

[Marener]

Celebrating a 55% chance to win seems kind of desperate.

 

[luiza]

Yeah, but Nate was horribly wrong in 2016.

But so was everybody except Deep State who organised it and me who was advised of it, though I did not give it much credence

 

[Billy000]

Told you Knee Pads is likely to lose.

Nah I have good reason to believe she will win.

 

[Rawley]

Nah I have good reason to believe she will win.

That you hate Trump is not a good reason.

 

[Nostra]

Nah I have good reason to believe she will win.

Such as?

 

[Thunderbird]

Trump seems to be in the lead in the final stretch.

If you like George Soros vote Harris. If you like the American people vote Trump. That’s the election in a nutshell.

The Democrats made a mistake insulting millions of women:

 

[para bellum]

Now picture a non-partisan political strategist showing favorable data for democrats:

“The early vote in PA shows that female voters outnumber male voters 2-1 with most of them being democrat.”

Republican response: “shut up libtard! You’re just mad Hillary lost!”

I would just laugh at him for being stupid. Not only is the ratio wrong, but the trend this year is no different than previous elections.

Someone also needs to point out to you how statistically insignificant this actually is. It’s significantly no better than if it was an even 50-50 split or if it was Harris who had 55% instead. It’s completely the same as a coin flip. Silver himself makes this clear lol

Silver knows that there are too many unknowns at this stage to make a solid prediction, he is just saying which way it's leaning. That's based mostly on polling and party registration trends, not on early voter demographics.

No one knows how independents are voting, and no one knows what election day turnout is going to look like.