Let's Hope The Iraqis Get This

[Annie]

According to Iraq the Model, they will:

http://www.publiuspundit.com/?p=2294

2/23/2006

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THE POLITICS OF IRAQ’S SHRINE ATTACK

The blogosphere has been abuzz about the bombing of the al-Askari shrine in Iraq, one of holiest shrines in Shia Islam. Of course, news reports always labels shrines as one of the holiest shrines, but it’s definitely true this time. This one is at the top. The attack was so profoundly felt by Shia Muslims that it has led to attacks on Sunni Muslim mosques and believers all over the country in retribution. Some think this may be a precursor to civil war. Others think not.

I think not. But many haven’t looked at is the politics behind the attack; and, especially, the response to it.

The main Shia political alliance in Iraq, the United Iraqi Alliance, quickly blamed the Sunnis for the attack. This makes no sense. The shrine has existed in predominantly Sunni territory for hundreds of years and never came under attack either during Saddam’s reign, when the Shia were heavily repressed, or even during the ongoing war right now. In fact, the many Sunnis in the area have a direct economic benefit because of tourism due to pilgrimages. Also, as Omar notes, 1) Association of Muslim scholars and the Islamic Party condemn the “criminal act”, and 2) Head of the Sunni endowment sheikh Ahmed al-Samarra’I announces that he will allocate 2 billion dinars (~1.4 million $) for the rebuilding of the shrine from the treasury of the Sunni endowment.

The mainstream Sunnis have also fully engaged in the political process, have come to constantly renounce terrorist attack, tribal leaders have reigned in on Sunni insurgents and forced them to drop their arms and instead secure their local areas, and have engaged wholeheartedly in negotiations to form a new government. Who stands to benefit from this attack?

In case anyone doesn’t see where I’m going with this, the finger points directly at Zarqawi, who is using the attack as a last ditch effort to prevent the forming of a new government. He is looking to divide the country after to has come so close to being united.

The problem is in how the UIA has reacted toward the Sunnis, accusing them right off the bat. The UIA you may recall is in a tight political situation. It is beginning to lose its grip on power with the Kurds possibly looking to form a government with the Sunnis and Allawi’s multi-confessional secular list. The United States has also begun favoring inclusion of the Sunnis in the new government and has not been as favorable to the UIA as it was in the past. It is also facing internal divisions over policy. The attack actually provides a perfect reason to pre-empt its own degradation as the country’s main political force.

I say this not in the light that the UIA itself committed the bombing, but that many factions within it are taking advantage of it. Especially the pro-Iran Moqtada al-Sadr. The “retaliation” attacks against Sunni are not random. They are mostly organized by his Mehdi Army militia. Following in turn, Iran blames America for the attacks on the Shia shrine. Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani immediately issued a fatwa following the attack and urged the Shia faithful to restrain themselves, but politically they are beginning to divide between Sistani and Sadr. It is obvious at this point that Iran and al-Sadr are politically motivated in their response to the attack.

For once it looks as if the Shia political leadership will have to decide if it wants a unified, cooperative, and peaceful Iraq. They will eventually have to accept that their position of power is on the wane, and how they continue to respond in the aftermath of the attack on the Golden Mosque will be an important barometer of this. The Sunnis have restrained from violence even as they are being hunted down by militias, but for how long? Iraqis, both Sunni, Shia, and Kurd, cannot afford to point fingers at each other. If they need to play the blame game, the only ones that should be blamed are the miniscule minority of Al Qaeda and radical Wahhabi fighters.
Robert Mayer @ 6:20 pm |