Ignorance of “Crisis Standards of Care”
by Anti-mask Anti-Shutdown Trump Cult Libertarian Goons and G
PoliticalChic, post: 25915732
And I have said that if the Chinese virus is your only malady, your chances of dying from it are essentially zero.....certainly no reason to shut down the economy, unless you wish to spoil Trump's chances for re-election.
So COVID19 must be contagious if there is a chance of dying from it only if I come into contact with others who have it.
So if I limit my contact to immediate household family members who I know are also limiting close contact with others then I can be certain that I have zero chance of dying of COVID19 and can wait until a vaccine is available as it is from all other viral diseases.
Fortunately my wife and I can reduce our risk to zero. We both have been teleworking since March. We have complete freedom to go outdoors maskless. The only time I wear a mask is to go to Home Depot. And a Couple visits to the Doctor.
I dont have freedom to breath on strangers during a pandemic who are less fortunate than me who have to work there.
So I have decided to not let Trump and his absolute incompetence kill me. I’m a few years younger than him and in better health but who knows what an infection wouid do to me since I don’t think I’d get the few hundred grand medical services if I got infected like he did.
So when you bring up chances of dying being essentially zero with your don’t give a damn attitude about the half a million American COVID19 victims who have already died or will not live to see Biden bring science truth and decency back to the White House in January.
Even Trump credits himself with shutting down the country when he says his policies saved 2 million Americans from dying in the first wave.
So the error in your propaganda is you don’t accept the two million first wave if deaths if there wouid have been a way to keep Trump’s miracle economy going while a couple million Americans were dying all over the place over a period of 90 days.
it’s because you don’t accept the deadly impact had we reached the “Crisis Standards of Care” last spring.
When the medical infrastructure and healthcare professionals become overwhelmed by victims of the pandemic they can’t care for and save lives as they have heroically been able to do thus far.
We are approaching the “Crisis Standards of Care” right now in the second wave across the entire country thus time.
Had most people behaveD like you Trump antimask goons all this time we wouid have been at the “Crisis Standards of Care” nationwide and the death rate from COVID19
would be much higher.
Trump could have succeeded in killing me.
I am happy to survive Trump’s deadly incompetence and the ignorance and selfishness of the 72 million who voted for that moron.
you are Perhaps lucky that 78 million who voted for Biden have worn masks and social distanced more often than not because they are the only side that cares enough to slow this killer virus down.
You put enough effort into that post so that you deserve at least some attempt at a contrary explanation.
It is not clear to me there really is a significant risk from covid-19 to most people.
The actual death rate of 225 thousand out of 330 million is only about 0.06%, which is not really much of a risk at all. And about 95% of those dying are over 70, so most people, especially children, are very safe.
I am over 70, but in good health, so I would risk it willingly.
But that is not really the main argument.
The problem is that "flattening the curve" is a horrendously stupid idea.
It had not ever and can not ever work to end an epidemic, so only stretches it out over a longer time period, which kills a hundred times as many people as it should or would have.
Whatever strategy one decides to use in any epidemic, the whole point is to end it as quickly as possible, so save lives. You can do that with total quarantine with contact tracing, or you can accelerate herd immunity by deliberately infecting young volunteers. There are ways that work. China proves that. But the lock down the CDC is calling for in the US, can not possibly work, at all. Reducing the infection rate alone, is NOT at all a good idea, if you are not intending to totally wipe it out.
So why did Fauci not go for herd immunity, considering that is what ended all other epidemics in history? Herd immunity will mean some number of deaths, and Fauci calculated that covid-19 would result in 4 million deaths, so he rejected herd immunity, even though that is all he really had. The alternative of quarantine with contact tracing was already gone because already hundreds of thousands had been infected or returned to the US with infection. There are 3 main mistakes Fauci made in his calculations.
1. Fauci based the lethality of covid-19 on the number of dead over the number of people who tested positive. The problem was that we now know over 90% of those infected are asymptomatic, so did not get tested, and his lethality estimate was too high by over a factor of 10.
2. Fauci based the number who would have to get infected to achieve herd immunity on 67% estimate based on the R0 number for covid-19. The problem with that is the fact almost no children die and over 90% are asymptomatic, means that the majority already are inherently immune and do not need to get infected and recover inorder to achieve herd immunity. So again Fauci estimated to high by over a factor of 10. Instead of 230 million needing to get infected for herd immunity, it is more like 23 million only.
3. The third mistake Fauci made was that he went with the averages of the population. He assumed lethality was constant over all groups, such as age. And that turned out to be totally wrong. It turned out that if we pick 38 year olds as a median, children are about 40 times LESS likely to die if infected, and those over 70 are 40 times MORE likely to die if infected. So if one asks for volunteers for deliberate infection, and filters only for those under 30, you can reduce the number of dead from the average, by over a factor of 40.
And if we just go with this being off by only a factor of 10 too high, the total estimate then was over 1000 too high.
So then Fauci's 4 million dead estimate from herd immunity, should really have been less than 4 thousand.
And we could have done this in March, then preventing over 200,000 deaths.
So there is no excuse for "flattening the curve" still.
It can not at all possibly work.
When you simply social distance, without any attempt to actually wipe out the virus, then all you do is kill more by stretching it out over a longer time period, which allows it to spread to populations it would not likely have otherwise hit at all.
There is no question about it. Partial lock downs do not work or save any lives. They increase the death toll instead.
