"Kiss the Good Times Goodbye" - the end of the automotive era

[WinterBorn]

20 years is a lifetime for new technology.

In 1997 do you think most businesses were afraid of the internet? We were still using those free AOL disks and paying by the minute for mostly text access.

In 1998 I got my first cell phone. Big clunky Motorola flip phone. If you had told me back then that in 20 years everyone would have one and that they would be cameras, computers, phones and sending written messages more than talking, I would have laughed too.

 

[Montrovant]

20 years is a lifetime for new technology.

In 1997 do you think most businesses were afraid of the internet? We were still using those free AOL disks and paying by the minute for mostly text access.

In 1998 I got my first cell phone. Big clunky Motorola flip phone. If you had told me back then that in 20 years everyone would have one and that they would be cameras, computers, phones and sending written messages more than talking, I would have laughed too.

It's not the possibility of the technology being viable that makes me think 20 years is not enough time. It is a combination of people's lack of desire to have self driving cars, combined with possible resistance from manufacturers, and the possibility of the cars being more expensive. If I thought the public was clamoring for self driving cars, I would be more inclined to believe 20 years is a reasonable period for such cars to become the majority. As it stands, I don't think all that many people would be willing to trust the ability of self driving cars to safely function, nor do I think all that many people want to give up their own control over their vehicles. I wish they would, as I would prefer self driving cars being the norm, but I simply do not see it.

 

[rightwinger]

20 years is a lifetime for new technology.

In 1997 do you think most businesses were afraid of the internet? We were still using those free AOL disks and paying by the minute for mostly text access.

In 1998 I got my first cell phone. Big clunky Motorola flip phone. If you had told me back then that in 20 years everyone would have one and that they would be cameras, computers, phones and sending written messages more than talking, I would have laughed too.

It's not the possibility of the technology being viable that makes me think 20 years is not enough time. It is a combination of people's lack of desire to have self driving cars, combined with possible resistance from manufacturers, and the possibility of the cars being more expensive. If I thought the public was clamoring for self driving cars, I would be more inclined to believe 20 years is a reasonable period for such cars to become the majority. As it stands, I don't think all that many people would be willing to trust the ability of self driving cars to safely function, nor do I think all that many people want to give up their own control over their vehicles. I wish they would, as I would prefer self driving cars being the norm, but I simply do not see it.

I have cruise control on my car and have never used it

I like having control of my car. If I had an option for a self driving car, I would never engage it.

Damn car is driving too slow, why won't it pass that car?
Why is it taking this route? There is always traffic this time of day

 

[rightwinger]

The flow of traffic goes at 5-10 mph over the speed limit
Will self driving cars be programmed to follow the posted speed limit?

 

[Montrovant]

20 years is a lifetime for new technology.

In 1997 do you think most businesses were afraid of the internet? We were still using those free AOL disks and paying by the minute for mostly text access.

In 1998 I got my first cell phone. Big clunky Motorola flip phone. If you had told me back then that in 20 years everyone would have one and that they would be cameras, computers, phones and sending written messages more than talking, I would have laughed too.

It's not the possibility of the technology being viable that makes me think 20 years is not enough time. It is a combination of people's lack of desire to have self driving cars, combined with possible resistance from manufacturers, and the possibility of the cars being more expensive. If I thought the public was clamoring for self driving cars, I would be more inclined to believe 20 years is a reasonable period for such cars to become the majority. As it stands, I don't think all that many people would be willing to trust the ability of self driving cars to safely function, nor do I think all that many people want to give up their own control over their vehicles. I wish they would, as I would prefer self driving cars being the norm, but I simply do not see it.

I have cruise control on my car and have never used it

I like having control of my car. If I had an option for a self driving car, I would never engage it.

Damn car is driving too slow, why won't it pass that car?
Why is it taking this route? There is always traffic this time of day

That is not me at all, but I think far more people have your frame of mind than mine when it comes to driving.

 

[Montrovant]

The flow of traffic goes at 5-10 mph over the speed limit
Will self driving cars be programmed to follow the posted speed limit?

If a majority of people used self driving cars, I think that it would lead to traffic moving more smoothly, so that even going the speed limit might tend to lessen trip times.

 

[rightwinger]

The flow of traffic goes at 5-10 mph over the speed limit
Will self driving cars be programmed to follow the posted speed limit?

If a majority of people used self driving cars, I think that it would lead to traffic moving more smoothly, so that even going the speed limit might tend to lessen trip times.

Doesn't matter

I don't want to drive at 65. Neither do most other drivers

 

[TomParks]

Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Interesting article.

Nobody is giving up their cars for the last time......these people need to get their heads out of the clouds

 

[WinterBorn]

The flow of traffic goes at 5-10 mph over the speed limit
Will self driving cars be programmed to follow the posted speed limit?

If a majority of people used self driving cars, I think that it would lead to traffic moving more smoothly, so that even going the speed limit might tend to lessen trip times.

Doesn't matter

I don't want to drive at 65. Neither do most other drivers

Most drivers don't want to have an accident either. But pretty much every one of them do.

 

[WinterBorn]

Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Interesting article.

Nobody is giving up their cars for the last time......these people need to get their heads out of the clouds

I agree. They will keep their cars. But much of the urban and suburban areas will be driverless only. Cuts down on accidents by a huge margin, makes commuting shorter and can even be productive, and human error will be all but eliminated in driving these areas.

It won't happen at once. Just some smaller, high traffic areas at first. Then people see they can avoid delays and accidents, while they get to watch their phones or get some work done, and things will spread.

 

[BulletProof]

10 years? That would require both for self-driving cars to be deemed safe enough for mass production, and for mass production to happen. 10 years is far too fast a time frame. As far as I'm aware, no self driving vehicles have been produced in large numbers to date. It also assumes that states will be willing to accept those autonomous cars on the roads, and won't pass any legislation hindering or preventing their use. And it further assumes that self driving cars will be competitively priced within 10 years.

While I think it's likely that, at some point, self driving vehicles will become the norm, 10 years is far too short a time for it to happen.

Tesla claims they're making cars now that are self-driving ready. All they have to do, so to speak, is flip a switch. I think the only real technology hurdle is the wait for the software to mature.

The cost should be small, when production goes mainstream. A few cameras and sensors with a computer. This is small enough that savings in insurance will cover the cost.

Some states will respond very quickly when the cars are ready, others shouldn't take long.

The minute self-driving cars are deemed safe enough, they'll explode into the mainstream.

 

[TomParks]

Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Interesting article.

Nobody is giving up their cars for the last time......these people need to get their heads out of the clouds

I agree. They will keep their cars. But much of the urban and suburban areas will be driverless only. Cuts down on accidents by a huge margin, makes commuting shorter and can even be productive, and human error will be all but eliminated in driving these areas.

It won't happen at once. Just some smaller, high traffic areas at first. Then people see they can avoid delays and accidents, while they get to watch their phones or get some work done, and things will spread.

Once a car is hacked its all over, but a friend who sells insurance told me there has to be a driver behind the wheel anyway so there really wont be much savings

 

[petro]

Constant electronic recalls and software programming issues in virtually every make and model vehicle regardless of price range.
I will never trust a driverless car due to the fact that no technology is imperfect.
Also in a cold weather climate I would never trust automatic systems in deep snow or black ice. It sure as hell couldn't tow a trailer in winter safely as no programming could " feel" the road. Half the traffic in my area is work trucks traveling differing routes to differing jobs for many trades. These auto pods would never be practical for those in the trades of construction who travel to multiple destinations.
Want safer roads? Make it damn tougher to get a license. Penalize the hell out if the idiots who cause issues on the road.

 

[Montrovant]

10 years? That would require both for self-driving cars to be deemed safe enough for mass production, and for mass production to happen. 10 years is far too fast a time frame. As far as I'm aware, no self driving vehicles have been produced in large numbers to date. It also assumes that states will be willing to accept those autonomous cars on the roads, and won't pass any legislation hindering or preventing their use. And it further assumes that self driving cars will be competitively priced within 10 years.

While I think it's likely that, at some point, self driving vehicles will become the norm, 10 years is far too short a time for it to happen.

Tesla claims they're making cars now that are self-driving ready. All they have to do, so to speak, is flip a switch. I think the only real technology hurdle is the wait for the software to mature.

The cost should be small, when production goes mainstream. A few cameras and sensors with a computer. This is small enough that savings in insurance will cover the cost.

Some states will respond very quickly when the cars are ready, others shouldn't take long.

The minute self-driving cars are deemed safe enough, they'll explode into the mainstream.

It may take quite a bit of time for testing. I know that various companies are working on autonomous cars, but a technology like this needs very extensive testing because of how often people drive. At least at first, many people are not going to trust self driving vehicles. Any incidents in which such a vehicle causes an accident will make it harder to convince the public they are a good idea, even if they are actually safer than human drivers.

And again, I don't think there is a lot of public desire for self driving cars. People will need to be convinced that autonomous vehicles are worth spending their money on instead of traditional vehicles.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Maybe not out....but less reliant on it

`
`
Yeah, I didn't mean "out" as to disappear. I mean people still ride horses. Reliant is a good word. And it will take decades, considering electric will replace internal combustion, by attrition.....unless the government steps in, which they shouldn't.

Need a national infrastructure to recharge cars rather than fill them with gas

That is only going to happen through the government. And our government is far to influenced by outside interest to make that happen

Drill baby, drill

Conservatives still celebrate every failure of alternative energy

Consistent with their fear of change.

 

[Wyatt earp]

Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Interesting article.

5 years? More predictions by the lunatic left ..

 

[Wyatt earp]

This has to be the most retarded article i have ever skimmed though..popular mechanic or popular science on steroids

 

[WinterBorn]

Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Interesting article.

Nobody is giving up their cars for the last time......these people need to get their heads out of the clouds

I agree. They will keep their cars. But much of the urban and suburban areas will be driverless only. Cuts down on accidents by a huge margin, makes commuting shorter and can even be productive, and human error will be all but eliminated in driving these areas.

It won't happen at once. Just some smaller, high traffic areas at first. Then people see they can avoid delays and accidents, while they get to watch their phones or get some work done, and things will spread.

Once a car is hacked its all over, but a friend who sells insurance told me there has to be a driver behind the wheel anyway so there really wont be much savings

Current law says there has to be a driver ready to take over. That can change easily enough. As for the hacking, it is simple enough to have basic safety protocols untouchable via wireless.

 

[WinterBorn]

Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Interesting article.

5 years? More predictions by the lunatic left ..

Typical. You don't read the article and then try to make it about liberals. Perhaps a liberal would have actually read the article and see that it said 20 years before there would be an actual switch to driverless cars. The entire "5 year" comment was simply about how long they would allow people to drive after that.

 

[WinterBorn]

10 years? That would require both for self-driving cars to be deemed safe enough for mass production, and for mass production to happen. 10 years is far too fast a time frame. As far as I'm aware, no self driving vehicles have been produced in large numbers to date. It also assumes that states will be willing to accept those autonomous cars on the roads, and won't pass any legislation hindering or preventing their use. And it further assumes that self driving cars will be competitively priced within 10 years.

While I think it's likely that, at some point, self driving vehicles will become the norm, 10 years is far too short a time for it to happen.

Tesla claims they're making cars now that are self-driving ready. All they have to do, so to speak, is flip a switch. I think the only real technology hurdle is the wait for the software to mature.

The cost should be small, when production goes mainstream. A few cameras and sensors with a computer. This is small enough that savings in insurance will cover the cost.

Some states will respond very quickly when the cars are ready, others shouldn't take long.

The minute self-driving cars are deemed safe enough, they'll explode into the mainstream.

It may take quite a bit of time for testing. I know that various companies are working on autonomous cars, but a technology like this needs very extensive testing because of how often people drive. At least at first, many people are not going to trust self driving vehicles. Any incidents in which such a vehicle causes an accident will make it harder to convince the public they are a good idea, even if they are actually safer than human drivers.

And again, I don't think there is a lot of public desire for self driving cars. People will need to be convinced that autonomous vehicles are worth spending their money on instead of traditional vehicles.

I think the convincing will come about by having relatively small areas go driverless. As an example, the suburbs to the north of Atlanta. Traffic up Hwy 400 is some of the worst in the city during rush hour. If they take part or all of that single highway and make it driverless only, people will have the option of using driverless cars or driving another route. Once it becomes apparent that the traffic flows smoother and faster without the idiots causing accident, people swerving in and out of lanes, and generally doing what they do to make rush hour worse, it will spread.

The same thing happened when the MARTA trains extended up that way. People said "No one wants to go to work and not have their car" or "No one will want to be stranded downtown without their car or pay per trip". Now MARTA is just part of many people's commutes. The parking lots at the MARTA stations above I-285 are full during the week.