I missed
Batcat's post the first time around, I've included it here to reply to both posts.
It is a foregone conclusion that SCOTUS will hold for that the 2ndA secures a
right to bear arms outside the home for self defense.
The arguments in the briefs of the NY AG admitted that the 2ndA secures that right o carry outside the home (but also argued that NY City was allowed to be more restrictive, limiting and qualifying the right on heightened need).
I also believe SCOTUS is going to outright reject applying all tiers of scrutiny for the RKBA; it just leaves too much wiggle-room for anti-2ndA judges to craft rulings that avoid enforcing the 2ndA.
The
NYSRPA oral arguments and moves made by the federal appeals courts since then, tells me the Court is going to just demand the lower court abandon their "two-tier inquiry" for contested gun laws.
After
Heller, the Circuit courts developed a self-created, SCOTUS ignoring two-step test . . . Under this process, those lower federal courts
first decide if the challenged law burdens / implicates conduct protected by the Second Amendment. If they conclude the law
does infringe on the RKBA, they proceed to the
second step, deciding how severe the infringement is and whether that infringement it is
really worth worrying about.
No surprise, that question is always answered the same;
NO PROBLEM! and the court declares the gun control law is absolutely needed for public safety. They then proceed to invent creative ways to explain why the violation of the right must be allowed and they
never fail saying the RKBA just doesn't matter -- the tally is 50-0!
At oral argument on Nov. 3, 2021, both lawyers defending the NY law were queried by the Justices about the "two step" process used to decide the constitutionality of challenged gun control laws (including
NYSRPA).
Understandably, the two lawyers could not defend the "
two-step inquiry" and in fact, the Principal Deputy Solicitor General of the USA, Brian Fletcher (representing the Biden Administration, who requested oral argument time) conceded that applying the "
text, informed by history and tradition" (as articulated years ago by Justice Thomas and explained by Kavanaugh in his dissent in
Heller II) is the only proper process to apply the 2nd Amendment to challenged laws.
We see the 9th Circuit reading the tea leaves and seeing what is coming.
The losing (gun rights) party in a recent large capacity magazine (LCM) case in the 9th Circuit (
Duncan, decided using the "two-step" on
December 22nd) made a motion immediately after the
Duncan was decided, moving
to stay the enforcement of the ban on possession of hi-cap mags until they can appeal to SCOTUS; it was
uncontested by California and was granted. The 9th has also suspended (held in abeyance) two pending assault weapon (AW) ban cases until
NYSRPA is decided and the 3rd Circuit has also held a NJ LCM ban case until after the
NYSRPA decision.
What we can draw from all this? Well, the lower federal courts realize the "two-step inquiry" is dead, and
all the cases decided using the "two-step inquiry" are at best, infirm.
It is hard to comprehend this ground-shift . . .
NYSRPA will result in a deluge of motions for rehearings in the Circuits that have used the "two step" and those rehearings will be granted and the reversals of those decisions that sustained gun laws will be handed down in short order . . .
Note, these rehearings and reversals / invalidations of these bans will not require any appeals or granting of cert and hearing by SCOTUS; it all happens in the Circuits that screwed the pooch originally.
These courts will forced to abandon the interest balancing / intermediate scrutiny two step and reconsider those laws ONLY applying the "
text, informed by history and tradition" of the 2ndA, and decide those cases like they should have been done ever since
Heller and
McDonald, declaring those AW and LCM bans invalid / unconstitutional.