Japan's births predicted to hit lowest level since records began in 1899

[1srelluc]

MSN

With nearly 30 percent of the population over 65 which, according to United Nations benchmarks, could reach 40 percent by 2070 Japan is classified as a "super-aged" society.

Data analyzed by demographic experts suggests that Japan could be on track to record fewer than 670,000 births in 2025, according to the Financial Times.

They based their calculations on preliminary data for the first 10 months of 2025.

This would mark the lowest annual figure since the government began tracking births in 1899. The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, in forecasts updated in 2023, had expected 749,000 births in 2025 and did not predict a dip below 670,000 until 2041.

By comparison, Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare recorded 686,061 births in 2024 a 5.7 percent decline from the previous year while the number of deaths outnumbered births for the 18th consecutive year, resulting in a net population loss of more than 900,000.

This demographic descent has continued despite escalating government interventions. In 2024, Japan committed roughly $23 billion over three years to boost the birth rate through initiatives like expanded child allowances, subsidized fertility treatments, and workplace reforms.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi also established the Population Strategy Headquarters in November 2025, after calling the birth crisis the country's "biggest problem." The body is rolling out new programs aimed at removing economic, social, and structural barriers that can discourage people from having children.

Well, I bet they won't be importing Muslims or Hispanics.

I see it as quality over quantity.

They are right to choose a lower population over importing the 3rd world.

If memory serves they put their toe in the water but quickly backed off after they saw a rise in crime from their guest workers.

At the end of the day how many people does Japan really need? It’s not like they would cease to function with a drop in population.

For that matter a 1970 level in population here in the United States would be pretty sweet.

 

[Blaster]

They should handout free Viagra and Cialis.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Everybody seems to assume this is a bad thing. I don’t necessarily view it like that.

 

[Muhammed]

I've never experienced any shortage of girls eager to procreate whenever I've been to Japan.

Perhaps the problem is that the guys are only turned on by tentacles.

 

[MarathonMike]

It's a good thing until your society collapses after two generations of no births and a bunch of old sick people left to care for.

 

[1srelluc]

It's a good thing until your society collapses after two generations of no births and a bunch of old sick people left to care for.

I hardly see a collapse of their society. It's not like they need millions of people for rice production anymore.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

It's a good thing until your society collapses after two generations of no births and a bunch of old sick people left to care for.

There's no societal collapse coming. That's the irrational take people like to use, but it's not true. There aren't zero births; there are simply less. A leveling off of births after the Baby Boom was inevitable. People weren't going to keep having five, six, seven kids, and that probably would not be sustainable in perpetuity. There may be some economic turmoil in the interim due to the gap in population between generations, but over time that will level out. Considering that technology, particularly AI, is rapidly developing and will begin replacing a lot more human labor, a continued growing population with less jobs available would ultimately become its own crisis.

 

[1srelluc]

Well, at least they won't have to sleep in capsule anymore.

 

[MarathonMike]

There's no societal collapse coming. That's the irrational take people like to use, but it's not true. There aren't zero births; there are simply less. A leveling off of births after the Baby Boom was inevitable. People weren't going to keep having five, six, seven kids, and that probably would not be sustainable in perpetuity. There may be some economic turmoil in the interim due to the gap in population between generations, but over time that will level out. Considering that technology, particularly AI, is rapidly developing and will begin replacing a lot more human labor, a continued growing population with less jobs available would ultimately become its own crisis.

It won't take zero births across two generations to create a mess. "Collapse" is probably too strong a word but if your aged, sick population grows from 30 percent to 60 percent for example, that presents huge problems.

 

[hadit]

It won't take zero births across two generations to create a mess. "Collapse" is probably too strong a word but if your aged, sick population grows from 30 percent to 60 percent for example, that presents huge problems.

That's where domestic service robots come into play, allowing people to stay in their homes longer with less need for human care. It's not perfect, but should alleviate some of the pressure.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

It won't take zero births across two generations to create a mess. "Collapse" is probably too strong a word but if your aged, sick population grows from 30 percent to 60 percent for example, that presents huge problems.

That's how the EU viewed it and they went and imported millions of Third Worlders to supplement the population. How has that worked out for them?

 

[Unkotare]

Well, at least they won't have to sleep in capsule anymore.

Those were never about overpopulation.

 

[martybegan]

There's no societal collapse coming. That's the irrational take people like to use, but it's not true. There aren't zero births; there are simply less. A leveling off of births after the Baby Boom was inevitable. People weren't going to keep having five, six, seven kids, and that probably would not be sustainable in perpetuity. There may be some economic turmoil in the interim due to the gap in population between generations, but over time that will level out. Considering that technology, particularly AI, is rapidly developing and will begin replacing a lot more human labor, a continued growing population with less jobs available would ultimately become its own crisis.

The thing is the pendulum is swinging to the other side too much.

There needed to be a birthrate decrease to match the drops in child mortality before procreation age, but we shot past that and then took a dump on it.