1. The American people are that stupid. I hate to say it; but our problems are rooted in the stupidity of the electorate who prop up these phony politicians.
Agreed
2. Obama is banking on their stupidity. How many people are busting out their college degrees in statistics and accounting for the "anomalies" that created a statistical deviation? Contrast that to how many people are saying oh, unemployment went down .3 percent.
No argument there.
3. I trust Jack Welch. The guy is possibly the sharpest business man in our time. If he says the books are being cooked, then I take his word for it.
He is a very sharp businessman yes.
4. Last month, 392K were dropped from the labor force to stop unemployment from going up. This month, the unemployment dropped .3 percent on only 114K jobs (my understanding is 250K is needed to keep-up with inflation growth; you cite 120K). Again, I have never seen that happen and look at the timing.
Yup....but again, the formula for calculating the U3 is the same formula that has been used for decades. Now there will be small changes here and there based upon the seasonal adjustments because those are dependent on history and according to history they will bounce around a bit. But for the most part, the formula is the formula. The problem is that people (aided mostly by the media and the administrations themselves) focus on the U3 even though it's terribly unreliable because it's always lower and paints a rosier picture.
Is it "cooking the books"? Well in a way sure because it's not providing a true representation of "people out of work". But see....that's the critical issue isn't it? The U6 measures people who are "
out of work". The U3 measures people who are "
unemployed according to the U3 definition of unemployed". There's a
huge difference. The U3 is a lot like "
well that depends on what your definition of the word 'is' is". So the U3 is "the truth", but it's a very selective truth that is dependent upon very specific conditions that define truth for its own purposes....the U6 is "the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth".
Now...in a rare circumstance the U3 doesn't even represent a "selective truth" because sometimes the BLS simply gets the forecast for seasonal adjustments wrong. That's what we are seeing with this report. What the BLS
expected to happen with young workers quitting their jobs and going back to school,
didn't happen (by roughly 500,000) and so the seasonal weighting of the formula produced a figure that is completely inaccurate. But that's really rare for it to be that out of whack.
Essentially what happened is that roughly 100,000 people found a new job, 200,000 people quit looking for work completely and were removed from the "labor pool" for calculating the U3 (they are still in the U6 and actually that figure is not exactly correct because it will be removed from the denominator instead of the numerator so it's actually a bit higher once you express it as a percentage), and 500,000 people that the BLS expected to quit their jobs didn't...that's 800,000 people that make up that 0.3% drop. But
in reality only 114,000 people found work....well below the 120,000 - 140,000 needed to keep pace. So what happens? The U3 drops artificially and the U6 stays the same which is exactly what this report says.
5. I don't believe Hilda Solis or Obama to be moral people in any sense of the word. I know from life experience that when you have that type of formula then mischief is a given; especially given the complicity of the media. They are desperate to keep their cushy stations in life and that should not be at all discounted.
Oh hell no they are not moral...no fucking way.
Obama is a snake and trust me....if he could find a way to manipulate the data he would in a heartbeat without question or hesitation. BUT....if he was manipulating the data he would manipulate more than just the U3....he would manipulate the U6 as well because if the U6 goes down any argument that the improvement is a statistical quirk is pretty much dead in the water. So if he was going to intentionally cook the books we would see both the U3
and the U6 drop.
Now I will admit that boy it seems pretty damned convenient that after years of monthly job growth of roughly 115,000, and a mere few days after Obama has his head handed to him in a debate with Romney...
SACRE BLEU!!! 800,000 people find jobs in a month. Yeah.......
buuuuuuuulllllllllllshit mother fucker. 
How stupid do you think we are? BUT.....however convenient it may be for team Obama, it's a statistical freak accident or they would have dropped the U6 as well.
Remember the Phantom Rule:
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. In this case I don't see it.
THAT BEING SAID....liberals need to stop the bullshit. This report is
NOT good news. Cut the crap, develop more grey matter...whatever you need to do, but stop with the "
800,000 people found work last month and the economy is really improving" horseshit. The only people that believe it is you (liberals) and my guess is that 80% of you actually don't, you are just hoping everyone else does.
