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The global economy has a year to crash in super-slo-mo, next fall just before the 2012 election, let me know if you want to answer the age-old election question "are you better off now than you were in 2008?"
The only way the GOP loses is if the morons insist on "no new taxes" and that Medicare and SS can crash...
Poll numbers will change quite a bit between now and the election, with the economy being the main source of uncertainty. I could imagine the election being decisive either way, but I agree that the likeliest outcome is a very close election.
One thing that surprised me is that Obama, Romney, Perry, Bachmann and Paul are *all* within the margin of error. This is certainly an incredibly evenly-divided and partisan electorate.
Yes, Paul could win it all... All the haters will slowly wake up. All Paul has to do is seem viable and I honestly think Mitt and Rick splitting their votes will do just that. As Mitt and Rick destroy each other they will lose votes to Paul as people hear him, if he wins a 1st or 2nd in a primary it’s all over for anyone else.