Is the U.S. Economy in recession, but Inflation skews the GDP numbers (Poll)

[kyzr]

Inflation causes prices of everything to rise, so it looks like the economy is growing nicely.

The problem is that high inflation is "inflating" all of the numbers.

A “Grumpy Economist” Weighs in on Inflation’s Causes — And Its Cures

www.gsb.stanford.edu

A “Grumpy Economist” Weighs in on Inflation’s Causes — And Its Cures​

What drove up prices? What can the Fed do (or not)? And how could the next president affect inflation?

"From 2010 to 2019, the government bought $4 trillion of bonds and issued $4 trillion of new money in return. Those transactions had zero effect on inflation, which just trundled along a bit below 2%. Then from 2021 to 2023, the government borrowed $5 trillion, and sent people checks. This time, the Fed bought about $3 trillion of the new debt and issued new cash to banks. In this second scenario, we got huge inflation. I think the lesson is pretty clear — it’s the big deficit that caused the inflation, not primarily whether the Fed buys Treasury debt and gives bank reserves in return."

Both Trump and Kamala will add to the Debt. Powell said that the current fiscal path is "unsustainable". U.S. Debt keeps getting downgraded.

Is the "inflated" U.S. economy of $30T of GDP headed for disaster?

If Trump wins and Elon Musk can cut Federal spending will that save the U.S. economy?

 

[1srelluc]

The definition of a recession was changed. It used to be two quarters of negative growth but when that happened the dems directed their media lackeys to say it was not so and the dumb shit public fell for it.

I guess when it all comes crumbling down you will know.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Inflation causes prices of everything to rise, so it looks like the economy is growing nicely.

The problem is that high inflation is "inflating" all of the numbers.

A “Grumpy Economist” Weighs in on Inflation’s Causes — And Its Cures

www.gsb.stanford.edu

A “Grumpy Economist” Weighs in on Inflation’s Causes — And Its Cures​

What drove up prices? What can the Fed do (or not)? And how could the next president affect inflation?

"From 2010 to 2019, the government bought $4 trillion of bonds and issued $4 trillion of new money in return. Those transactions had zero effect on inflation, which just trundled along a bit below 2%. Then from 2021 to 2023, the government borrowed $5 trillion, and sent people checks. This time, the Fed bought about $3 trillion of the new debt and issued new cash to banks. In this second scenario, we got huge inflation. I think the lesson is pretty clear — it’s the big deficit that caused the inflation, not primarily whether the Fed buys Treasury debt and gives bank reserves in return."

Both Trump and Kamala will add to the Debt. Powell said that the current fiscal path is "unsustainable". U.S. Debt keeps getting downgraded.

Is the "inflated" U.S. economy of $30T of GDP headed for disaster?

If Trump wins and Elon Musk can cut Federal spending will that save the U.S. economy?

cant vote as none of the choices are correct.


The US is not in recession,

the GDP is not inflated,

the Deficit is not manageable

 

[Harpy Eagle]

"From 2010 to 2019, the government bought $4 trillion of bonds and issued $4 trillion of new money in return. Those transactions had zero effect on inflation, which just trundled along a bit below 2%. Then from 2021 to 2023, the government borrowed $5 trillion, and sent people checks. This time, the Fed bought about $3 trillion of the new debt and issued new cash to banks. In this second scenario, we got huge inflation. I think the lesson is pretty clear — it’s the big deficit that caused the inflation, not primarily whether the Fed buys Treasury debt and gives bank reserves in return."

You do not think that the fucked up supply lines and people having all that money the Govt sent them but fewer goods to spend it on might have impacted inflation?

 

[San Souci]

Inflation causes prices of everything to rise, so it looks like the economy is growing nicely.

The problem is that high inflation is "inflating" all of the numbers.

A “Grumpy Economist” Weighs in on Inflation’s Causes — And Its Cures

www.gsb.stanford.edu

A “Grumpy Economist” Weighs in on Inflation’s Causes — And Its Cures​

What drove up prices? What can the Fed do (or not)? And how could the next president affect inflation?

"From 2010 to 2019, the government bought $4 trillion of bonds and issued $4 trillion of new money in return. Those transactions had zero effect on inflation, which just trundled along a bit below 2%. Then from 2021 to 2023, the government borrowed $5 trillion, and sent people checks. This time, the Fed bought about $3 trillion of the new debt and issued new cash to banks. In this second scenario, we got huge inflation. I think the lesson is pretty clear — it’s the big deficit that caused the inflation, not primarily whether the Fed buys Treasury debt and gives bank reserves in return."

Both Trump and Kamala will add to the Debt. Powell said that the current fiscal path is "unsustainable". U.S. Debt keeps getting downgraded.

Is the "inflated" U.S. economy of $30T of GDP headed for disaster?

If Trump wins and Elon Musk can cut Federal spending will that save the U.S. economy?

Yes. Trump will save the Country.

 

[Winco]

The definition of a recession was changed. It used to be two quarters of negative growth but when that happened the dems directed their media lackeys to say it was not so and the dumb shit public fell for it.

I guess when it all comes crumbling down you will know.

Got it, but you forgot to tell the "New Definition"

 

[justoffal]

Inflation causes prices of everything to rise, so it looks like the economy is growing nicely.

The problem is that high inflation is "inflating" all of the numbers.

A “Grumpy Economist” Weighs in on Inflation’s Causes — And Its Cures

www.gsb.stanford.edu

A “Grumpy Economist” Weighs in on Inflation’s Causes — And Its Cures​

What drove up prices? What can the Fed do (or not)? And how could the next president affect inflation?

"From 2010 to 2019, the government bought $4 trillion of bonds and issued $4 trillion of new money in return. Those transactions had zero effect on inflation, which just trundled along a bit below 2%. Then from 2021 to 2023, the government borrowed $5 trillion, and sent people checks. This time, the Fed bought about $3 trillion of the new debt and issued new cash to banks. In this second scenario, we got huge inflation. I think the lesson is pretty clear — it’s the big deficit that caused the inflation, not primarily whether the Fed buys Treasury debt and gives bank reserves in return."

Both Trump and Kamala will add to the Debt. Powell said that the current fiscal path is "unsustainable". U.S. Debt keeps getting downgraded.

Is the "inflated" U.S. economy of $30T of GDP headed for disaster?

If Trump wins and Elon Musk can cut Federal spending will that save the U.S. economy?

Been saying that for years ... The GDP numbers are based on inflated unit counts....unless you boil everything down to man hours spent you will not have an accurate picture of what the dollar's spending power actually is.

 

[task0778]

The US is not in recession,

the GDP is not inflated,

the Deficit is not manageable

I do not think the US is in recession. Yet.

I do think the GDP is indeed inflated, thanks to the ridiculous amount of gov't spending that does not translate into increases in production. Hence, inflation.

The Deficit is not manageable and there does not appear to be the political will to address that by either party. Some people believe it doesn't matter cuz the gov't can print or create new money and that might be true in the short run but I think eventually you end up with too much money chasing too few goods and services and inflation becomes a really big problem.

 

[justoffal]

cant vote as none of the choices are correct.


The US is not in recession,

the GDP is not inflated,

the Deficit is not manageable

What is the GDP measured in?

 

[justoffal]

I do not think the US is in recession. Yet.

I do think the GDP is indeed inflated, thanks to the ridiculous amount of gov't spending that does not translate into increases in production. Hence, inflation.

The Deficit is not manageable and there does not appear to be the political will to address that by either party. Some people believe it doesn't matter cuz the gov't can print or create new money and that might be true in the short run but I think eventually you end up with too much money chasing too few goods and services and inflation becomes a really big problem.

Your observation about party politics in regard to the deficit is one of the main reasons that party politics should be discontinued.

 

[boevans]

No, the economy is flourishing, the labor market robust, eight million jobs available, 4.1 UE.

The first time job claims was up.

 

[kyzr]

cant vote as none of the choices are correct.

The US is not in recession,
the GDP is not inflated,
the Deficit is not manageable

1. One talking head economist said that inflation made the economy look better than it was . You disagree.
So why isn't the GDP computed in constant dollars?

2. If Elon cuts the Federal Budget down to size the Deficit is manageable. The Grace Commission tried to do it back in 1984 and Congress protected their turf, so nothing was cut. Circumstances are different now, we need to slaughter as many Federal cash cows as possible to save the dollar. The Federal government and Federal Budget got way too big and need to be slimmed down.

 

[kyzr]

No, the economy is flourishing, the labor market robust, eight million jobs available, 4.1 UE.

The first time job claims was up.

Exactly. The economy looks good, just had 254,000 jobs created. Problem is too many of them are government jobs. The Welfare Budget is $1.3T so we need those people working. The rating agencies keep downgrading the US debt. I hope the Fed keeps the economy from collapsing, but Congress is fighting to crash it. Powell called the current path "unsustainable". So not good.

 

[kyzr]

I do not think the US is in recession. Yet. I do think the GDP is indeed inflated, thanks to the ridiculous amount of gov't spending that does not translate into increases in production. Hence, inflation.

The Deficit is not manageable and there does not appear to be the political will to address that by either party. Some people believe it doesn't matter cuz the gov't can print or create new money and that might be true in the short run but I think eventually you end up with too much money chasing too few goods and services and inflation becomes a really big problem.

Yep. If Elon Musk and Trump can't get the Budget back to balance the dollar is toast.

Powell said that our current track is "unsustainable". If/when the dollar collapses, it won't happen slowly...

 

[kyzr]

You do not think that the fucked up supply lines and people having all that money the Govt sent them but fewer goods to spend it on might have impacted inflation?

Yes I do. I still can't figure out why folks on Social Security got checks?! Their lives didn't change at all.

Now Biden is paying for millions of illegals' food, housing, education, healthcare...inflation isn't going away until millions of them get deported.

 

[justoffal]

1. One talking head economist said that inflation made the economy look better than it was . You disagree.
So why isn't the GDP computed in constant dollars?

2. If Elon cuts the Federal Budget down to size the Deficit is manageable. The Grace Commission tried to do it back in 1984 and Congress protected their turf, so nothing was cut. Circumstances are different now, we need to slaughter as many Federal cash cows as possible to save the dollar. The Federal government and Federal Budget got way too big and need to be slimmed down.

Constant Dollars or man hours...
Same for inflation....

 

[Harpy Eagle]

2. If Elon cuts the Federal Budget down to size the Deficit is manageable. The Grace Commission tried to do it back in 1984 and Congress protected their turf, so nothing was cut. Circumstances are different now, we need to slaughter as many Federal cash cows as possible to save the dollar. The Federal government and Federal Budget got way too big and need to be slimmed down.

and if Pigs had wings they could fly.

Nothing is different in Congress except that the parties have a stronger hold than they did

The bottom line is "we the people" do not want spending cut. any attempt to do so will be met with serious resistance. Trump will cut spending the same way he did in his first term....not at all.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Yes I do. I still can't figure out why folks on Social Security got checks?! Their lives didn't change at all.

Now Biden is paying for millions of illegals' food, housing, education, healthcare...inflation isn't going away until millions of them get deported.

Inflation has already gone away.

Do you really think Trump is going to deport more than a handful of folks just so he can so "see, I did it"

 

[justoffal]

Yes I do. I still can't figure out why folks on Social Security got checks?! Their lives didn't change at all.

Now Biden is paying for millions of illegals' food, housing, education, healthcare...inflation isn't going away until millions of them get deported.

When the Government spends more than it takes in the dollar unit shrinks....to cover it up they do QE....takes a few months for the downstream economy to readjust to the lower value of the unit. During that period you get a temporary, false sense of prosperity which is quickly eroded by the adjustment. Do this enough and frequently back to back .... You get 2008.....

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Yes I do. I still can't figure out why folks on Social Security got checks?! Their lives didn't change at all.

Ask the guy you you have sworn your loyalty to. He sent a letter out letting everyone know the money was from him and because of him. Oh, and then he fought with the Dems to even bigger checks than they were willing to give.

But sure, it will be different this time....