Is Iran The Harbinger?

[Annie]

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/printout/0,8816,1176995,00.html

Sunday, Mar. 26, 2006
Today Tehran, Tomorrow the World
What's at stake in the dispute over Iranian nukes? Ultimately, human survival
By CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER

Like many physicists who worked on the Manhattan Project, Richard Feynman could not get the Bomb out of his mind after the war. "I would see people building a bridge," he wrote. "And I thought, they're crazy, they just don't understand, they don't understand. Why are they making new things? It's so useless."

Feynman was convinced man had finally invented something that he could not control and that would ultimately destroy him. For six decades we have suppressed that thought and built enough history to believe Feynman's pessimism was unwarranted. After all, soon afterward, the most aggressive world power, Stalin's Soviet Union, acquired the Bomb, yet never used it. Seven more countries have acquired it since and never used it either. Even North Korea, which huffs and puffs and threatens every once in a while, dares not use it. Even Kim Jong Il is not suicidal.

But that's the point. We're now at the dawn of an era in which an extreme and fanatical religious ideology, undeterred by the usual calculations of prudence and self-preservation, is wielding state power and will soon be wielding nuclear power.

We have difficulty understanding the mentality of Iran's newest rulers. Then again, we don't understand the mentality of the men who flew into the World Trade Center or the mobs in Damascus and Tehran who chant "Death to America"--and Denmark(!)--and embrace the glory and romance of martyrdom.

This atavistic love of blood and death and, indeed, self-immolation in the name of God may not be new--medieval Europe had an abundance of millennial Christian sects--but until now it has never had the means to carry out its apocalyptic ends.

That is why Iran's arriving at the threshold of nuclear weaponry is such a signal historical moment. It is not just that its President says crazy things about the Holocaust. It is that he is a fervent believer in the imminent reappearance of the 12th Imam, Shi'ism's version of the Messiah. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been reported as saying in official meetings that the end of history is only two or three years away. He reportedly told an associate that on the podium of the General Assembly last September, he felt a halo around him and for "those 27 or 28 minutes, the leaders of the world did not blink ... as if a hand was holding them there and it opened their eyes to receive" his message. He believes that the Islamic revolution's raison d'être is to prepare the way for the messianic redemption, which in his eschatology is preceded by worldwide upheaval and chaos. How better to light the fuse for eternal bliss than with a nuclear flame?

Depending on your own beliefs, Ahmadinejad is either mystical or deranged. In either case, he is exceedingly dangerous. And Iran is just the first. With infinitely accelerated exchanges of information helping develop whole new generations of scientists, extremist countries led by similarly extreme men will be in a position to acquire nuclear weaponry. If nothing is done, we face not proliferation but hyperproliferation. Not just one but many radical states will get weapons of mass extinction, and then so will the fanatical and suicidal terrorists who are their brothers and clients.

That will present the world with two futures. The first is Feynman's vision of human destruction on a scale never seen. The second, perhaps after one or two cities are lost with millions killed in a single day, is a radical abolition of liberal democracy as the species tries to maintain itself by reverting to strict authoritarianism--a self-imposed expulsion from the Eden of post-Enlightenment freedom.

Can there be a third future? That will depend on whether we succeed in holding proliferation at bay. Iran is the test case. It is the most dangerous political entity on the planet, and yet the world response has been catastrophically slow and reluctant. Years of knowingly useless negotiations, followed by hesitant international resolutions, have brought us to only the most tentative of steps--referral to a Security Council that lacks unity and resolve. Iran knows this and therefore defiantly and openly resumes its headlong march to nuclear status. If we fail to prevent an Iranian regime run by apocalyptic fanatics from going nuclear, we will have reached a point of no return. It is not just that Iran might be the source of a great conflagration but that we will have demonstrated to the world that for those similarly inclined there is no serious impediment.

Our planet is 4,500,000,000 years old, and we've had nukes for exactly 61. No one knows the precise prospects for human extinction, but Feynman was a mathematical genius who knew how to calculate odds. If he were to watch us today about to let loose the agents of extinction, he'd call a halt to all bridge building.

 

[deaddude]

"and now I have become death the destroyer of worlds" yeh? Ironic sort of.

Iran is very unsettleing at the moment, just have to wait and see what happens.

 

[sitarro]

"and now I have become death the destroyer of worlds" yeh? Ironic sort of.

Iran is very unsettleing at the moment, just have to wait and see what happens.

Lucky for Israel that they aren't the wait, let's see what happens crowd that are still so naive that they actual think they can talk to savages. The world may just sit back but I doubt the Israelis, who actually live in the real world, are going to put up with it much longer. It has worked for them plenty of times before, the best defense is a kick ass offense.Maybe once they start this ass kicking lesson, our whimpy politicians can take notes on how to fight and win a war.

 

[deaddude]

I wasnt refering to we as a country waiting to see what happens, I was refering to me personally waiting to see what happens.

 

[dilloduck]

I wasnt refering to we as a country waiting to see what happens, I was refering to me personally waiting to see what happens.

It seems like that is what we have been reduced to--groaning,moaning,angry and whining spectators.

 

[Semper Fi]

Lucky for Israel that they aren't the wait, let's see what happens crowd that are still so naive that they actual think they can talk to savages. The world may just sit back but I doubt the Israelis, who actually live in the real world, are going to put up with it much longer. It has worked for them plenty of times before, the best defense is a kick ass offense.Maybe once they start this ass kicking lesson, our whimpy politicians can take notes on how to fight and win a war.

They did it to Iraq in '85, they'll do it to Iran again, and without apology. Should be a fun show to watch.

 

[dilloduck]

They did it to Iraq in '85, they'll do it to Iran again, and without apology. Should be a fun show to watch.

Like I said---spectators. (Until all hell breaks out)

 

[deaddude]

It seems like that is what we have been reduced to--groaning,moaning,angry and whining spectators.

Who is moaning, groaning angry or whining? I just dont see all that much that I personally can do about the Iranian nuclear program, so I wait and see and hope for the best.

 

[Semper Fi]

Who is moaning, groaning angry or whining? I just dont see all that much that I personally can do about the Iranian nuclear program, so I wait and see and hope for the best.

Once there's a mushroom cloud somewhere in the world-there will be a response. However, by then it might be too late .

 

[dilloduck]

Who is moaning, groaning angry or whining? I just dont see all that much that I personally can do about the Iranian nuclear program, so I wait and see and hope for the best.

I agree wholeheartedly with your assesment----you mean you are not hearing people bellyaching about the WOT? (Both sides)

 

[deaddude]

I agree wholeheartedly with your assesment----you mean you are not hearing people bellyaching about the WOT? (Both sides)

Well yes there is quite a bit of whinning in that regard. That is to be expected, however this war has stirred up no where near the amount of dissent caused by Vietnam, nor has anyone even attempted to villify the troops in general. As far as the soldiers are concerned, most Americans have nothing but respect and sympathy.

 

[dilloduck]

Well yes there is quite a bit of whinning in that regard. That is to be expected, however this war has stirred up no where near the amount of dissent caused by Vietnam, nor has anyone even attempted to villify the troops in general. As far as the soldiers are concerned, most Americans have nothing but respect and sympathy.

Liberals hippies who trashed Viet Nam vets have had to admit how shameful thier behavior was and now resort to just trashing those who feel a war against those who would do us harm is unjustified. I'm glad the trops have been left out of it so far but it still has to be tough to defend your country when half of it thinks they are not needed and that they may indeed be contributing the the hatred that started all the violence in the first place.

I doubt that " I support our troops but not what they are fighting for" is a real morale booster.

 

[Semper Fi]

I doubt that " I support our troops but not what they are fighting for" is a real morale booster.

Not to mention completely faulty. How can one support the troops, but not what they were intended to do. That's like saying, "I support toast, but not cooked bread."

 

[Annie]

Back to the topic, it seems the Arab league is saying, "Faster, faster." What will be US response?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060328/ap_on_re_mi_ea/arab_summit

Head of Arab League Pushes Nuke Programs

By SALAH NASRAWI, Associated Press WriterTue Mar 28, 4:53 PM ET

The head of the Arab League called on Arab states Tuesday to work toward "entering the nuclear club" by developing atomic energy — a new concern for a Western world already trying to rein in Iran's nuclear ambitions and fretting about a possible Mideast arms race.

Amr Moussa's comments came as a surprise at a troubled Arab League summit meant to tackle crises ranging from Iraq to the Palestinian peace process.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan warned Arab leaders that the Mideast faces one of its most critical periods.

"You are meeting today here while the whole Arab world and the region is witnessing turmoil," Annan said in a statement read by an envoy.

But Arab leaders seemed unlikely to take serious action. In private sessions before the summit, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari castigated Arab governments, saying their promises at the summit to help Iraq were "rhetoric."

The summit has already been undermined by low attendance. Ten heads of state from the league's 22 members stayed away, most notably Egypt's president and Saudi Arabia's king — two regional heavyweights and top U.S. allies.

Moussa spoke to the gathered leaders at the opening of the summit, saying, "I would like to call on the Arab world to enter into the world of peaceful use of nuclear energy with all speed and momentum."

"This is a legal right ensured for all states that are party to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty," he said.

No Arab country is known to have a significant program for nuclear energy, and few have shown a drive to do so.

But Moussa's call was likely to cause concern in the United States and Europe, which are pressing for U.N. Security Council action on Iran's nuclear program. Washington accuses Iran of seeking to develop nuclear weapons, an accusation Tehran denies, saying it seeks only to generate electricity.

The issue of Iran has divided Arab leaders.

Countries close to Iran, including Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, have expressed concern over its program, focussing on safety issues and the threat of a possible regional arms race. Moussa, an Egyptian, quarreled publicly with the Emirates' foreign minister after he urged Gulf leaders to focus on Israel, not Iran.

Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir accused the West of double standards on the nuclear issue.

"This is an issue which should not be a subject of discrimination. For the international community to be honest, Israel should be pushed to sign the Nonproliferation Treaty and open its nuclear installations for inspection," he said in a speech to the summit Tuesday.

The issue of Iran's standoff with the West was on the agenda for the summit, but the political turmoil and violence in Iraq and the issue of how to deal with a new Hamas-led Palestinian government loomed larger.

The annual Arab summits regularly conclude with resolutions that often fail to yield concrete action. This year, though, leaders received messages asking them to be assertive.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose country is not a member of the league but who was invited as a guest, encouraged the leaders to make democratic changes, respect human rights and accept accountability.

"After that, our efforts to maintain peace and security will be more effective," he told them.

Among the resolutions agreed upon is one that promises help for Iraq and to eventually open embassies there, a top demand of the Baghdad government.

But Iraq's Zebari dismissed the resolutions as "rhetoric" and told his Arab counterparts to deal realistically with Iraq, according to Arab diplomats who participated in the private discussions Sunday.

"You should learn from the mistakes of Saddam Hussein," he said when some of the ministers pressed for a more anti-Western stance in the summit resolutions, according to the diplomats, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the meeting was private.

When the ministers complained about his comments, Zebari retorted with an Iraqi proverb: "Ask an experienced man, not just a learned one."