I think the polls reflect more a large following of "Anybody other than Obama" rather than Romney fans.
I remember when Reagan was shit in the eyes of the people. The press had done a serious number on him. But the guy came through when we needed him. Now he's the most popular POTUS in the last 70 years.
Election day prediction polls are useless till a candidate has been selected. I don't believe a one.
Secondly, most polls are weighted liberal.
Thirdly, P-BO is not getting NEARLY the same level of support he did in 08 when it was trendy hip to vote for a black man. Now 3+ years in of being disappointed by or shocked by, the bloom is off the rose, and no matter how much he tries to make this another 'Blame Bush' election.... it's not going to happen.
But take heart dear liberals. The Establishment GOP that you have over to your Georgetown Cocktail Parties and New York Galas and up to Martha's Vinyard for summer vacations have a proven trackrecord of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.