CDZ IL or CA and Why

[gipper]

This might be a little off topic, but I just wanted to say that I saw a video somewhere on this site about Skid Row in Los Angeles. OMG, I am a very sheltered person because I have NEVER seen anything like that in my life. I couldn't even believe that was a part of America, really. There are just streets and streets of tents and homeless people, druggies, prostitutes that go on for miles and miles. My boyfriend made an interesting statement about it, saying that people have lost their pride and dignity. Back in the day, people wanted to work and be good contributing members to their communities. Now, with drugs and other things, there are people who actually CHOOSE to be homeless and continue to do drugs or live a criminal lifestyle.

Agreed. Here is that thread.
In the richest nation in the world

 

[william the wie]

IL is tiptoeing to junk status and has been doing so for decades.

I presume you are referring to the debt securities issued by those states? If so, you do realize that many states and lesser jurisdictions issue debt that's "junk" simply because the issuers don't submit the issue for review. Are CA and IL public debt issuers among those entities? Off the top of my head, I don't know. Perhaps you do?

IL is tiptoeing to junk status and has been doing so for decades.

I presume you are referring to the debt securities issued by those states? If so, you do realize that many states and lesser jurisdictions issue debt that's "junk" simply because the issuers don't submit the issue for review. Are CA and IL public debt issuers among those entities? Off the top of my head, I don't know. Perhaps you do?

Bonds ain't my strong suit so this won't take long. Rating review depends on the market the bond is being sold on. Private placement is generally unrated and sold to pension funds or locals in the case of munis (often a bad decision on both sides) or insurance company reserves with covenants out the wazoo. But CA backs local munis that are out and out junk and that is the problem. Some jurisdictions, not many, are on a first name basis with the local bankruptcy referee and know each other well. As to IL the state has the easiest portage/canal path between the Atlantic and Gulf coast continental divide and they have had at least six canal buildings but only three canals: the Michigan-Illinois, the vessel and sewerage and the seaway. This led to the commodities exchanges, which are the major revenue source of the state and they are the most easily moved businesses in the state since Baton Rouge/New Orleans is just as good a location.

 

[yiostheoy]

If Trump's tax cuts really do cause states to default, then the national debt will take a massive hit. Slashing tax revenue at the same time as bailing out a bunch of states is going to be ugly.

Cali is definitely headed for disaster.

 

[william the wie]

If Trump's tax cuts really do cause states to default, then the national debt will take a massive hit. Slashing tax revenue at the same time as bailing out a bunch of states is going to be ugly.

Cali is definitely headed for disaster.

True. with the expansion of the Panama Canal and the possibility of a Chinese financed competing canal in Nicaragua the west coast is headed for much lower income. Appalachins west and north are coming. luckily state defaults have happened many times before and have had low or no effect on the rest of the country.

 

[danielpalos]

IL is tiptoeing to junk status and has been doing so for decades. CA is refusing to spend money for safety, is raising taxes and already has one of the worst out migration rates of any of the 50 States 5-15 states were in fiscal trouble under Obama and the Trump tax bill made the trouble worse starting today. IL or CA are the most likely triggers for 5-15 states being pulled into really deep trouble ranging from bond down grades to insolvency. So, IL or CA and 5 or 15 states getting into deep trouble. What's your call?

We just legalized pot for adult recreational use and expect around a billion in revenue.

 

[william the wie]

IL is tiptoeing to junk status and has been doing so for decades. CA is refusing to spend money for safety, is raising taxes and already has one of the worst out migration rates of any of the 50 States 5-15 states were in fiscal trouble under Obama and the Trump tax bill made the trouble worse starting today. IL or CA are the most likely triggers for 5-15 states being pulled into really deep trouble ranging from bond down grades to insolvency. So, IL or CA and 5 or 15 states getting into deep trouble. What's your call?

We just legalized pot for adult recreational use and expect around a billion in revenue.

IL is tiptoeing to junk status and has been doing so for decades. CA is refusing to spend money for safety, is raising taxes and already has one of the worst out migration rates of any of the 50 States 5-15 states were in fiscal trouble under Obama and the Trump tax bill made the trouble worse starting today. IL or CA are the most likely triggers for 5-15 states being pulled into really deep trouble ranging from bond down grades to insolvency. So, IL or CA and 5 or 15 states getting into deep trouble. What's your call?

We just legalized pot for adult recreational use and expect around a billion in revenue.

According to Moonbeam (quoted earlier in this thread I believe) that would be less than 1% of the shortfall in unfunded liabilities.

 

[danielpalos]

IL is tiptoeing to junk status and has been doing so for decades. CA is refusing to spend money for safety, is raising taxes and already has one of the worst out migration rates of any of the 50 States 5-15 states were in fiscal trouble under Obama and the Trump tax bill made the trouble worse starting today. IL or CA are the most likely triggers for 5-15 states being pulled into really deep trouble ranging from bond down grades to insolvency. So, IL or CA and 5 or 15 states getting into deep trouble. What's your call?

We just legalized pot for adult recreational use and expect around a billion in revenue.

IL is tiptoeing to junk status and has been doing so for decades. CA is refusing to spend money for safety, is raising taxes and already has one of the worst out migration rates of any of the 50 States 5-15 states were in fiscal trouble under Obama and the Trump tax bill made the trouble worse starting today. IL or CA are the most likely triggers for 5-15 states being pulled into really deep trouble ranging from bond down grades to insolvency. So, IL or CA and 5 or 15 states getting into deep trouble. What's your call?

We just legalized pot for adult recreational use and expect around a billion in revenue.

According to Moonbeam (quoted earlier in this thread I believe) that would be less than 1% of the shortfall in unfunded liabilities.

California needs a fifteen dollar an hour minimum wage to help make it work.

 

[william the wie]

no one will interfere with Sacramento raising the state minimum wage to even $20/hr

 

[task0778]

The basic problem with CA, IL, and most of the other states that are in big fiscal trouble is the public pensions, right? So, as I see it we'll be hearing a lot in the next few years (maybe sooner than later) about a bill in the US Congress to backstop those pensions. No mention by the Dems of bailouts or bankruptcies, but plenty of talk about the negatives to the economy if we don't do something. I wouldn't be surprised if it isn't a campaign issue in 2020.

Will it ever happen? Not until we have the Dems back in control of both chambers of Congress and also the WH. Could that happen? Yeah, if the GOP doesn't get it's stuff together and Trump continues to alienate so many people. But we're talking about the single biggest and most important constituency of the Democratic Party, and it's going to be a war out there that the MSM will fight in a big way for the Left. And it' also one big reason why the make-up of the SCOTUS over the next 10 years will be super important, if that court ever becomes left-leaning then this country is fucked.

 

[danielpalos]

Right wing tax cuts that benefit the rich do not help pay for pensions for the ninety-nine percent.

 

[miketx]

If Trump's tax cuts really do cause states to default, then the national debt will take a massive hit. Slashing tax revenue at the same time as bailing out a bunch of states is going to be ugly.

And here folks is the regressive mentality shown for what it is. Who in the hell says we will bail them out?

 

[miketx]

Right wing tax cuts that benefit the rich do not help pay for pensions for the ninety-nine percent.

Then it's good didn't get one.

 

[william the wie]

The basic problem with CA, IL, and most of the other states that are in big fiscal trouble is the public pensions, right? So, as I see it we'll be hearing a lot in the next few years (maybe sooner than later) about a bill in the US Congress to backstop those pensions. No mention by the Dems of bailouts or bankruptcies, but plenty of talk about the negatives to the economy if we don't do something. I wouldn't be surprised if it isn't a campaign issue in 2020.

Will it ever happen? Not until we have the Dems back in control of both chambers of Congress and also the WH. Could that happen? Yeah, if the GOP doesn't get it's stuff together and Trump continues to alienate so many people. But we're talking about the single biggest and most important constituency of the Democratic Party, and it's going to be a war out there that the MSM will fight in a big way for the Left. And it' also one big reason why the make-up of the SCOTUS over the next 10 years will be super important, if that court ever becomes left-leaning then this country is fucked.

The basic problem with CA, IL, and most of the other states that are in big fiscal trouble is the public pensions, right? So, as I see it we'll be hearing a lot in the next few years (maybe sooner than later) about a bill in the US Congress to backstop those pensions. No mention by the Dems of bailouts or bankruptcies, but plenty of talk about the negatives to the economy if we don't do something. I wouldn't be surprised if it isn't a campaign issue in 2020.

Will it ever happen? Not until we have the Dems back in control of both chambers of Congress and also the WH. Could that happen? Yeah, if the GOP doesn't get it's stuff together and Trump continues to alienate so many people. But we're talking about the single biggest and most important constituency of the Democratic Party, and it's going to be a war out there that the MSM will fight in a big way for the Left. And it' also one big reason why the make-up of the SCOTUS over the next 10 years will be super important, if that court ever becomes left-leaning then this country is fucked.

If SALT driven migration even hits the low end of the probable range, double digit GDP growth rates are going to be seen. Since about one year after the meltdown when the condo surplus was absorbed housing prices in north FL have taken off and are close to double what they were at the peak of the bubble mostly through flipping. New construction is going to be expensive because and even remodels from one story to two is going to become difficult.

 

[task0778]

If SALT driven migration even hits the low end of the probable range, double digit GDP growth rates are going to be seen. Since about one year after the meltdown when the condo surplus was absorbed housing prices in north FL have taken off and are close to double what they were at the peak of the bubble mostly through flipping. New construction is going to be expensive because and even remodels from one story to two is going to become difficult.

Double digit GDP growth rates? Whoa dude, not many people are that optimistic.

 

[william the wie]

If SALT driven migration even hits the low end of the probable range, double digit GDP growth rates are going to be seen. Since about one year after the meltdown when the condo surplus was absorbed housing prices in north FL have taken off and are close to double what they were at the peak of the bubble mostly through flipping. New construction is going to be expensive because and even remodels from one story to two is going to become difficult.

Double digit GDP growth rates? Whoa dude, not many people are that optimistic.

If SALT driven migration even hits the low end of the probable range, double digit GDP growth rates are going to be seen. Since about one year after the meltdown when the condo surplus was absorbed housing prices in north FL have taken off and are close to double what they were at the peak of the bubble mostly through flipping. New construction is going to be expensive because and even remodels from one story to two is going to become difficult.

Double digit GDP growth rates? Whoa dude, not many people are that optimistic.

Whether that is optimistic or not depends on where you live.

Mortgage deduction: $750,000

SALT deduction $10,000

In most of the blue states that translates into @ 10% almost immediate decline in home values and an 11% drop in aftertax income to boot (FBC was the only non-psychotic source I could find. MSM anchors are looking at huge income and wealth drops.) DC, CA, Chicago and NYC are looking at much bigger drops. The bureaucracy and congress are in deep trouble if they live within commuting distance of the capital. The swamp will self drain to a huge extent just because of the tax bill. That's more than 100 million people seeking tax shelter or more than 30 million houses being built not to mention that high income financial people are going to lead the charge to greener pastures.

 

[danielpalos]

Right wing tax cuts that benefit the rich do not help pay for pensions for the ninety-nine percent.

Then it's good didn't get one.

Increasing the Peoples' debt also doesn't make pension fund payments.

 

[miketx]

Right wing tax cuts that benefit the rich do not help pay for pensions for the ninety-nine percent.

Then it's good didn't get one.

Increasing the Peoples' debt also doesn't make pension fund payments.

Jughead increased it to the tune of 19 trillion.

 

[danielpalos]

Right wing tax cuts that benefit the rich do not help pay for pensions for the ninety-nine percent.

Then it's good didn't get one.

Increasing the Peoples' debt also doesn't make pension fund payments.

Jughead increased it to the tune of 19 trillion.

The right wing likes to blame the left.

 

[william the wie]

Right wing tax cuts that benefit the rich do not help pay for pensions for the ninety-nine percent.

Then it's good didn't get one.

Increasing the Peoples' debt also doesn't make pension fund payments.

Jughead increased it to the tune of 19 trillion.

The right wing likes to blame the left.

After 8 years of a commie crook from Chicago trying to replace him with his ideological clone you elected Trump, does that make you feel proud or what?

 

[2aguy]

IL is tiptoeing to junk status and has been doing so for decades. CA is refusing to spend money for safety, is raising taxes and already has one of the worst out migration rates of any of the 50 States 5-15 states were in fiscal trouble under Obama and the Trump tax bill made the trouble worse starting today. IL or CA are the most likely triggers for 5-15 states being pulled into really deep trouble ranging from bond down grades to insolvency. So, IL or CA and 5 or 15 states getting into deep trouble. What's your call?

Hey...you can't bad mouth Illinois....we are the leading state for people leaving the state......now that is something the democrats should brag about.....pretty soon we are going to have a major public works project too.....the Illinois democrats are going to build a wall around the state to keep people from leaving....