If the president wins re-election

[Jroc]

will gallup and rasmussen go out of business?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't they show Obama in the lead until the debates? Were they as unreliable then?

honestly, i don't remember.

but rasmussen has never been reliable. gallup had an old and honorable name until it became the outlier...

so they're either the best... or the worst.

I'm really concerned about "Nate" you people are funny, Is he a personal friend of yours?

 

[Toro]

Ras has Obama up by 2 in swing states.

 

[kwc57]

will gallup and rasmussen go out of business?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't they show Obama in the lead until the debates? Were they as unreliable then?

honestly, i don't remember.

but rasmussen has never been reliable. gallup had an old and honorable name until it became the outlier...

so they're either the best... or the worst.

Rasmussen actually has the most accurate track record of calling presidential elections. That would make them the most reliable. We'll see later today.

 

[Toro]

Gallup now has Romney up by 1.

 

[Valerie]

Many on Wall Street are increasingly convinced that Barack Obama will win the election.

On the eve of the election, many financial professionals on Wall Street believe that Mitt Romney has lost the election. In phone conversations, email and instant messaging exchanges, and text messages with over 20 people in different jobs on Wall Street today the message I picked up was almost universal: The president will be re-elected tomorrow.

Many of those with whom I spoke-all of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity-had a sense of resignation about this forecast. They were Romney guys. They ate at expensive rubber-chicken fundraisers in midtown hotels, they coaxed friends and coworkers into donating to Romney and Republican campaign funds, and just a few weeks ago they were enthusiastically predicting a victory for Romney.

Not any longer. The word that comes to mind is: capitulation. The sudden and simultaneous collapse of hope that we sometimes see in markets just as they reach their lowest points.

Did Wall Street Just Give Up on Romney? - Yahoo! Finance

 

[jillian]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't they show Obama in the lead until the debates? Were they as unreliable then?

honestly, i don't remember.

but rasmussen has never been reliable. gallup had an old and honorable name until it became the outlier...

so they're either the best... or the worst.

Rasmussen actually has the most accurate track record of calling presidential elections. That would make them the most reliable. We'll see later today.

rightwingers like saying that. but its a lie and it wasn't true for the last presidential election

 

[jillian]

Did you finally register to vote this time...?

I voted in '08....not in '10 though.

I don't know about today - I'm in NY and there's a 0% chance Romney wins NY so it depends on how my schedule goes.

Vote.

i second that

 

[jillian]

will gallup and rasmussen go out of business?

pollsters are like weathermen, they can be wrong most of the time and still have a job.

believe it or not, nate silver has an interesting book just out on that subject. it's called "The Signal and the Noise". it talks about how most predictors are about 50% correct... just like a guess can be 50% correct.

 

[Toro]

Live Intrade on the odds of victory:

Barack Obama
71.4%
Today's Change: +3.2
Shares Traded: 3,545,669


Mitt Romney
28.9%
Today's Change: -4.0
Shares Traded: 2,988,169


US Presidential Election 2012

Now 73%

 

[Darkwind]

Nice to know that you leftists support suppression of the First Amendment.

btw..whats with this 'if' thingy? I thought the Obama had it locked??

Interesting...

I know, I know......He does, we were just trashing an accurate gauge of the American people...

 

[mamooth]

What are you babbling about, crank? Are the conservatives now pulling their victimhood out of thin air?

 

[kwc57]

honestly, i don't remember.

but rasmussen has never been reliable. gallup had an old and honorable name until it became the outlier...

so they're either the best... or the worst.

Rasmussen actually has the most accurate track record of calling presidential elections. That would make them the most reliable. We'll see later today.

rightwingers like saying that. but its a lie and it wasn't true for the last presidential election

Don't trust MSNBC.

2008 Intrade Vs. Actual Election Results

 

[toomuchtime_]

will gallup and rasmussen go out of business?

The real question is, if Obama wins reelection, will America go out of business? With real GDP growth falling each quarter, our credit rating on the verge of another downgrade, soaring deficits, unmanageable debt, unemployment continuing at unacceptably high levels and no plan to deal with these issues and no ability to deal with Congress, if Obama is reelected will the US go into effective receivership like Greece and Spain?

 

[Numeros]

Rasmussen actually has the most accurate track record of calling presidential elections. That would make them the most reliable. We'll see later today.

rightwingers like saying that. but its a lie and it wasn't true for the last presidential election

Don't trust MSNBC.

link

Ah, the infamous "Report Card" makes yet another appearance.

First, familiarize yourself with the REAL 2008 election numbers. I'm new here, so I'm not allowed to post links, but you can google FEC Election Results 2008.

Now notice that this Report card was compiled in early November 2008, before all ballots had been counted.

Notice that the Report Card's calculations are based on a spread of only 6.5. Obama's spread was actually 7.2.

Notice that it's based on Obama winning 52.6% to 46.1%. Obama actually won 52.9% to 45.7%.

Notice that it says Rasmussen was off by 0.5. He was actually off by a full 1.2.

Notice that it says CNN & Ipsos were off by 0.5. They were actually off by only 0.2.

CNN & Ipsos were more accurate than Rasmussen. The Report Card is outdated and invalid.

 

[Stephanie]

What are you babbling about, crank? Are the conservatives now pulling their victimhood out of thin air?

you are a victim of being a parrot, YAWN

 

[kwc57]

If the president wins re-election, look at the horrible mess he is going to inherit! Will he start blaming himself finally or still blame Boooosh?