Hurricane Harvey, and advances in prediction

[Old Rocks]

Predicting the track has become quite accurate. Predicting intensity changes is still a challenge.

 

[nancy_mew]

Wow, amazing. I wonder when they'll be able to predict weather changes.

 

[skookerasbil]

Predicting the track of hurricanes has hardly become predictable.... in fact in 2018 it's still rather a joke..... unless you are talking about the track within 24 to 48 hours.

Go look at computer models of hurricanes 5 to 14 days out. The tracks can vary by more than 1000 miles.... laughable and hardly predictable.

But don't take my word for it. Go Google recent Atlantic hurricanes and check out the track maps. Tells you all you have to know about the accuracy of computer models.....

 

[skookerasbil]

Of course, you could watch the lecture, and actually learn something, instead of remaining a complete and ignorant ass.

Nope.....fucking with semantics and operational definitions is ghey. Again.... using a term like "predictable" can have many many meanings..... just as terms like "increasing" "higher" "warmer", "more intense".... can have many many different meanings. It's the fakery game played all the time by progressives wanting to convey a fake story.

Look.... people will sit up and take notice on computer model accuracy when two weeks out they can predict a hurricane path within 50 miles east or west. Right now they're not even close.

Yawn

 

[skookerasbil]

You know, the fact is people may start paying attention to climate change when weather forecasters can actually determine when and where a tornado is going to touch down 30 minutes before it happens. Only people who are climate crusaders will be impressed by advances in predicting touchdown by a minute or two. That's just called......the sobering reality.

I don't know I guess there are people out there who get excited watching paint dry.....idk.... never did do anything for me.

 

[Old Rocks]

Really, you are demonstrating what a dumb ass you are. Ever hear of chaos theory? Not going to happen. However, the accuracy that they have attained has saved thousands of lives, as it gives enough warning for people to evacuate, and harden property against the wind and rain. And they are working on honing that accuracy, so as to save even more lives, and give better warning of intensity. In the meantime, you sit there, making fun of the work they are doing. You really sound like a total ass.

 

[skookerasbil]

Really, you are demonstrating what a dumb ass you are. Ever hear of chaos theory? Not going to happen. However, the accuracy that they have attained has saved thousands of lives, as it gives enough warning for people to evacuate, and harden property against the wind and rain. And they are working on honing that accuracy, so as to save even more lives, and give better warning of intensity. In the meantime, you sit there, making fun of the work they are doing. You really sound like a total ass.

Nah.... I'm simply like most of the people out there.... who are not at all interested in these rather insignificant scientific advances.

The whole idea of the climate science field getting all amped up over computer model predictions is downright laughable to me..... and to most people by the way. I don't know.... call me the a****** here but most people like to look at science and know that there is a degree of certainty that they can count on. The computer models related to climate science have been wildly inaccurate.... the operative term being "wildly".

For some reason that I've never been able to understand, the climate crusader contingent completely separate science from common sense, as if it is never pertinent to the discussion. Silly

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Wow, amazing. I wonder when they'll be able to predict weather changes.

They already can! Anytime the weather changes, it's because of manmade global warming. They have a 100% hindsight prediction record.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

If you consider predicting that a hurricane presently in the Caribbean will make landfall in the Yucatan, or Houston, or Miami, or Hilton Head or Fort Lee NJ accurate, sure, have at it

 

[skookerasbil]

If you consider predicting that a hurricane presently in the Caribbean will make landfall in the Yucatan, or Houston, or Miami, or Hilton Head or Fort Lee NJ accurate, sure, have at it

Yep..... the OP defines accuracy as hurricane landfall occurring somewhere between Portland, Maine and Bristol, Tennessee.



I mean c'mon now....

 

[CrusaderFrank]

100% Confidence that Hurricane Irma is headed west, more than that is anyone's guess

 

[CrusaderFrank]

"But there is another kind of behavior, which physics handles badly. For example, anything to do with turbulence. Water coming out of a spout. Air moving over an airplane wing. Weather. Blood flowing through the heart. Turbulent events are described by nonlinear equations. They're hard to solve-in fact, they're usually impossible to solve. So physics has never understood this whole class of events. Until about ten years ago. The new theory that describes them is called chaos theory.

Chaos theory originally grew out of attempts to make computer models of weather in the 1960s. Weather is a big complicated system, namely the earth's atmosphere as it interacts with the land and the sun. The behavior of this big complicated system always defied understanding. So naturally we couldn't predict weather. But what the early researchers learned from computer models was that, even if you could understand it, you still couldn't predict it. Weather prediction is absolutely impossible. The reason is that the behavior of the system is sensitively dependent on initial conditions." Ian Malcolm, Jurassic Park

I applaud the scientific effort to use technology to better the human condition, I mock the arrogance of those who believe we are the cause or have control

 

[Sunsettommy]

Predicting the track has become quite accurate. Predicting intensity changes is still a challenge.

What motivated you to post this, Old Rocks?

Tropical Storm ACE is not increasing.

 

[skookerasbil]

Predicting the track has become quite accurate. Predicting intensity changes is still a challenge.

What motivated you to post this, Old Rocks?

Tropical Storm ACE is not increasing.

These types of goofball threads have been showing up in here for years now....trivial shit nobody cares about. They are always designed to plant some seed....in this case that computer models are becoming more reliable....but skeptics in here always expose the fraud.

These type threads are consistently decimated however.... which can easily be verified by just going through the 1st 3 pages of threads in the environment forum..... these types of threads die out in a day or two after a few responses.

Then you go and look at many of the threads initiated by skeptics..... they go on for weeks months and in some cases years. Some of the skeptic threads have received well over 200,000 views.

Yuk....yuk.....

For all intents and purposes, Frank nuked the whole thread by posting up the map at the top of the page.

 

[Billy_Bob]

100% Confidence that Hurricane Irma is headed west, more than that is anyone's guess

The cone of uncertainty is massive. Its like saying the center of the target is red when you'r throwing darts at the side of a red barn.

 

[whitehall]

We have a dozen satellites and sophisticated computers dedicated to weather forecasting and for some reason the weather people seem conflicted between the U.S. and the European "model" and they can't chart the day to day movement of a hurricane within hundreds of miles.

 

[Old Rocks]

We have a dozen satellites and sophisticated computers dedicated to weather forecasting and for some reason the weather people seem conflicted between the U.S. and the European "model" and they can't chart the day to day movement of a hurricane within hundreds of miles.

What a lie. Yes, they can predict the track for the next 24 hours very well. And do pretty well on the next 48. As for the difference in the models, had you actually bothered to listen to what the scientists were presenting, you would know how they use those differences. But then, if you actually were to listen to scientists, you would not be a 'Conservative'.

 

[skookerasbil]

Hurricane tracking science is only a smidge better than it was 20 years ago..... which is to say it is still a joke. The only people impressed are those fascinated with science to the level of OCD!! Frank's posted map on the top of this page.....all you need to know.

 

[Sunsettommy]

We have a dozen satellites and sophisticated computers dedicated to weather forecasting and for some reason the weather people seem conflicted between the U.S. and the European "model" and they can't chart the day to day movement of a hurricane within hundreds of miles.

What a lie. Yes, they can predict the track for the next 24 hours very well. And do pretty well on the next 48. As for the difference in the models, had you actually bothered to listen to what the scientists were presenting, you would know how they use those differences. But then, if you actually were to listen to scientists, you would not be a 'Conservative'.

Yes they make good 24 forecasts, but they still change 24 hours later anyway.

Surely you have seen how often the CHANGE their forecasts?

 

[Billy_Bob]

We have a dozen satellites and sophisticated computers dedicated to weather forecasting and for some reason the weather people seem conflicted between the U.S. and the European "model" and they can't chart the day to day movement of a hurricane within hundreds of miles.

What a lie. Yes, they can predict the track for the next 24 hours very well. And do pretty well on the next 48. As for the difference in the models, had you actually bothered to listen to what the scientists were presenting, you would know how they use those differences. But then, if you actually were to listen to scientists, you would not be a 'Conservative'.

Yes they make good 24 forecasts, but they still change 24 hours later anyway.

Surely you have seen how often the CHANGE their forecasts?

The National Hurricane Center 'updates' their track forecasts every 6 hours.. they have greater than 20% changes every 6 hours. The models don't do well from either side of the pond.