How Will the Tax Bill Disappoint?

[william the wie]

The market is discounting all sorts of things that can not all get through reconciliation because of senate rules. How big of a dip are we likely to see?

 

[DarkFury]

I'm not sure you are going to see a dip. Retailers tend to score big with any tax cut. The only problem is most of that money will go overseas because we do not manufacture.

 

[william the wie]

I'm not sure you are going to see a dip. Retailers tend to score big with any tax cut. The only problem is most of that money will go overseas because we do not manufacture.

The velocity and multiplier will go out the window as a result of the minimal, if any, drop in the corporate rate and with the Dec fed rate hike penciled in. Also Trump will likely veto if neither the carried interest rate loophole is not closed nor the corporate rate dropped.

 

[DarkFury]

The top rate on this house version is still to high. I also see a flaw in the timing on the re-patriotion rate. It kicks in to late to benefit our remaining quarters.

 

[william the wie]

The top rate on this house version is still to high. I also see a flaw in the timing on the re-patriotion rate. It kicks in to late to benefit our remaining quarters.

That is one of the many big problems with this bill in a nutshell

 

[Shrimpbox]

William, can you explain to me why they didn’t deal with the carried interest. It seems like such a simple thing to tweak. Are the donors that powerful?

 

[william the wie]

William, can you explain to me why they didn’t deal with the carried interest. It seems like such a simple thing to tweak. Are the donors that powerful?

I wouldn't think so. The users of this loophole are more likely to contribute to the Ds and in larger amounts than to the Rs and the Ds still have fewer unpaid boots on the ground.

 

[Picaro]

The top rate on this house version is still to high. I also see a flaw in the timing on the re-patriotion rate. It kicks in to late to benefit our remaining quarters.

The 'top rate' is purely mythical; the U.S. tax code has all kinds of deductions and avoidance gimmicks many other countries don't have, i.e. their 'lower top rates' are closer to what actually get paid in, unlike the U.S., where nobody has ever paid anywhere near the 'top rate' in the country's entire history. Most effective tax rates here are half or less of the statutory 'top rate' in real life. It's a fake 'talking point', and all these so-called 'tax reforms' end up being just more excuses to raise taxes on the lower income brackets, just as they did in the Reagan era, where taxes were raised 8 times, almost entirely on consumption. Anybody who actually read all those 'Fair Tax' bills knows they are jokes, so no reason to think the current pseudo-conservative Jihad on Taxes is going to end up any different, it's all just the usual smoke and mirrors.

 

[Picaro]

The market is discounting all sorts of things that can not all get through reconciliation because of senate rules. How big of a dip are we likely to see?

Most people will see their effective tax rates increase; only the top brackets will see any significant cuts in taxes, and they aren't going to be investing the savings in genuine business domestically, either, they are still going to go rent seeking overseas, as they have for decades; no tax cut since Nixon has resulted in any increase in domestic investment, and neither will the next batch of cuts.

 

[Spare_change]

The market is discounting all sorts of things that can not all get through reconciliation because of senate rules. How big of a dip are we likely to see?

Most people will see their effective tax rates increase; only the top brackets will see any significant cuts in taxes, and they aren't going to be investing the savings in genuine business domestically, either, they are still going to go rent seeking overseas, as they have for decades; no tax cut since Nixon has resulted in any increase in domestic investment, and neither will the next batch of cuts.

Congratulations! I didn't think you could do it --- but you pulled it off !!

You got it ALL wrong .... an amazing feat.

 

[william the wie]

It does happen with all of the wheeling and dealing just in the senate and reconciliation will add more oddities.

 

[Picaro]

The market is discounting all sorts of things that can not all get through reconciliation because of senate rules. How big of a dip are we likely to see?

Most people will see their effective tax rates increase; only the top brackets will see any significant cuts in taxes, and they aren't going to be investing the savings in genuine business domestically, either, they are still going to go rent seeking overseas, as they have for decades; no tax cut since Nixon has resulted in any increase in domestic investment, and neither will the next batch of cuts.

Congratulations! I didn't think you could do it --- but you pulled it off !!

You got it ALL wrong .... an amazing feat.

I have decades of economic and business history to back it up. You have nothing but an ideological fantasy based on nothing but rhetoric and wishful thinking. For instance, where is the inflation that is supposed to come with 'full employment' cycles? There isn't any. Capital chases the highest returns, and those are coming from tax avoidance schemes based on labor racketeering overseas and the subsidies that make all that cheap and viable.

 

[Spare_change]

The market is discounting all sorts of things that can not all get through reconciliation because of senate rules. How big of a dip are we likely to see?

Most people will see their effective tax rates increase; only the top brackets will see any significant cuts in taxes, and they aren't going to be investing the savings in genuine business domestically, either, they are still going to go rent seeking overseas, as they have for decades; no tax cut since Nixon has resulted in any increase in domestic investment, and neither will the next batch of cuts.

Congratulations! I didn't think you could do it --- but you pulled it off !!

You got it ALL wrong .... an amazing feat.

I have decades of economic and business history to back it up. You have nothing but an ideological fantasy based on nothing but rhetoric and wishful thinking. For instance, where is the inflation that is supposed to come with 'full employment' cycles? There isn't any. Capital chases the highest returns, and those are coming from tax avoidance schemes based on labor racketeering overseas and the subsidies that make all that cheap and viable.

Ooooh ---- I'm impressed! Guess I'll just take my 25 years of financial investment, management, and sales - coupled with 45 years of business experience at all levels - and just slink away into the dark.

Do you REALLY want to compare resumes? Seriously?

You said stupid shit - and, frankly, I don't much care where you learned the stupid shit.

 

[miketx]

Whatever happens the usual cadre of America hating scumbags will wet their beds over it.

 

[Picaro]

The market is discounting all sorts of things that can not all get through reconciliation because of senate rules. How big of a dip are we likely to see?

Most people will see their effective tax rates increase; only the top brackets will see any significant cuts in taxes, and they aren't going to be investing the savings in genuine business domestically, either, they are still going to go rent seeking overseas, as they have for decades; no tax cut since Nixon has resulted in any increase in domestic investment, and neither will the next batch of cuts.

Congratulations! I didn't think you could do it --- but you pulled it off !!

You got it ALL wrong .... an amazing feat.

I have decades of economic and business history to back it up. You have nothing but an ideological fantasy based on nothing but rhetoric and wishful thinking. For instance, where is the inflation that is supposed to come with 'full employment' cycles? There isn't any. Capital chases the highest returns, and those are coming from tax avoidance schemes based on labor racketeering overseas and the subsidies that make all that cheap and viable.

Ooooh ---- I'm impressed! Guess I'll just take my 25 years of financial investment, management, and sales - coupled with 45 years of business experience at all levels - and just slink away into the dark.

Do you REALLY want to compare resumes? Seriously?

You said stupid shit - and, frankly, I don't much care where you learned the stupid shit.

lol I don't doubt you're one of the many 'professionals' who peddle nonsense to 'investors', and then charge them money for dumb advice. You're nothing but a tout and a bookie, no matter how you dress up your 'expertise'; at least bookies have a much better rep for honesty.

Other factors people need to take into account is the extreme concentration of industry ownership, and the out-sized role institutional investors play, that also make the claims there is going to be 'massive domestic investment' because of some tax cut or other. The real case is some industries are merely getting concerned about Red China's growing belligerence and some might bring some of their capital investments back onshore, of course after heavy lobbying for special subsidies and freebies as 'incentives', and as already noted in many articles over the years, it's also now easier to off-shore the profits and cash flow of even domestic production and sales, with some estimates at a conservative 30% of GDP, others go up to 50%, using the loose GAAP standards we have today.

As we all know, most 'experts' are as 'expert' and reliable as Madam Chloe's Psychic Hotline, and twice as sleazy.