Steve_McGarrett
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And in 1980 this time, polls showed Carter leading Reagan by 15. We all know how that turned out.
How Mitt Romney and the Mormons Saved the “Never Trump” Movement
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chikenwing
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So you have the same mindset,as the repub establishment, under estimating the number of unhappy voters,that would never vote for Clinton, bit will hold their nose and pull the lever for Trump.
rightwinger
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imawhosure
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They tell us Trump can't win, nor can Cruz. In other words--------------> the 2 candidates that the vast majority of the GOP is voting for=automatic loss. And yet, HRC candidacy is a landslide victory?
Does anyone believe the pablum these people are trying to feed you? Isn't it obvious they are again engaging in trying to pick the candidate they want. What they are really saying is------>"Take the candidate we want you take, just like we told you to take Romney, Mcain, and Dole, and lose again, just lose with the blessing of the media and lefties!"
Who here believes that "WINGER" is trying to help you win the Presidency-) Shouldn't ALL leftists be pushing for Trump or Cruz since it is such an easy victory for HRC in the world according to them? And, lets suppose for just an instant, they are 100% correct. Do we want someone who will just keep the seat warm for the NEXT lefty President; probably elected in 2020?
Besides being Republican, the reason the left fears these 2 so much is their stance on ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION. If one of these 2 men get elected, the lefts whole plan goes into the toilet, and they do it NOT through EOs, nor through being a dictator, but just by enforcing an existing law already on the books. In other words---------->they don't have to PASS anything, just give teeth to those trying to do their jobs, and put up barriers that were passed by congress previously.
For those who CLAIM this is racism, maybe you ought to look up the make up of the congress that passed this bill, and how the Democrats in congress voted on it; some who are still in office. (if I was you lefties, I would instantly demand that any Democrat in congress that is still there resign, since it is against your values. We are waiting) Now if they don't want to resign, then maybe they ought to introduce a new bill in congress to RESCIND their mistake. Need help with the form letter to those DEMOCRATIC congresspeople? Never fear, I will HEEEEEEEP you make one, and you can fire it off to them, post-haste.
JakeStarkey
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Invalid analogy until you explain why. Be specific.
rightwinger
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Does anyone believe the pablum these people are trying to feed you? Isn't it obvious they are again engaging in trying to pick the candidate they want. What they are really saying is------>"Take the candidate we want you take, just like we told you to take Romney, Mcain, and Dole, and lose again, just lose with the blessing of the media and lefties!"
You guys will show them this time....you will get your Trump
You will also see him lose by the largest margin in 30 years
Will you admit you were wrong? Of course not
You will blame the media, voter fraud, Hillary being a woman, free stuff
You will never admit you picked one of the worst candidates in history
imawhosure
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1. If Trump wins the nomination, I did NOT pick him, the people did.
2. Same goes for Cruz.
3. So far, I have been 100% correct on the primaries with Florida and Ohio, much to Mr Tom Horn's distress. (amongst others)
4. Will he lose by the largest margin in 30 years? Maybe, but he could also win by the largest margin in 30 years, so what is your point! Trying to extrapolate what is happening in March to what happens in November in politics is fools gold. For all we know, he may not even be the nominee, so debating such "hypotheticals" is just meant to dissuade voters from casting ballots for the candidate of their choice. I will NOT engage in such tripe, unlike OTHERS on here.
5. I will never admit I was wrong, because I was not! I am not saying anybody is going to beat anyone, YOU are! I just study the numbers, get involved, and report what numbers say. And let me say this-----------> there are NO numbers available to support your assertions as of November 1st! You are GUESSING! Anybody can guess, but to insist it is accurate because YOU think so without data is the height of arrogance. You see, we do not disagree at all. You are making a prediction by guessing, and I REFUSE to because no data is available for me to make one that means anything. Now if you bring forth the same numbers on November the 1st and they mirror the numbers today, then I will be the 1st person to agree with you. Lets wait and see!
rightwinger
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It is not a guess, it is looking at the current electoral college and then evaluating how Trump will do plus or minus
Hillary and Trump are not starting with a blank slate
With solid blue states, Hillary starts with 246 EVs and Trump has 179 (270 needed to win). What will Hillary do different than Obama did in 2012? She will take North Carolina. In addition, she will take S Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Utah and Missouri giving her 400 EVs
imawhosure
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And you know this how? You are a soothsayer? Can you give me the lottery numbers?
Nobody is saying you are wrong, (at least not me) but I am not going to GUESS to make my point and hope I come out correct. I don't even know if Trump is going to be the nominee.
Still, you are using your feelings to convince people of something that is not proved out by numbers that are in evidence at even close to the time the determination is made. Weren't you one of the people who said Trump would collapse long ago? And yet, here we are!
More than 1 or 2 pundits have stated that----------> "the next President of the United States is not even in the race yet." Do I believe them? Probably not, but why should I worry about Trump, when their are so many different scenarios that could yet happen!
JakeStarkey
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The blue state 2012 election results plus Trump' continued showing (particularly the Dem cross over to vote against - which far outweighed those to vote for him) should make Trumpeteers nervous.
rightwinger
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Republicans have to ask which states that Obama took in 2012 will Trump be able to take?
There are none
imawhosure
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You know, I find a couple of you guys fascinating. (eventhough it is the same person, lol)
QUESTION------------>
1. Why does Trump do faaaaaar better in open primaries than in closed primaries? ANSWER----------> Because it is the Democrats and independents driving a lot of his candidacy.
2. Isn't this a repeat of operation chaos? ANSWER----------> Maybe from here forward the logic is believable, but to say he got those votes earlier by liberals using such tactics is unbelievable. If this was the case and all the brilliant lefties were on board, he would have had massive Black and Hispanic votes turning out..........or are we trying to suggest that only WHITE lefties are aware of this strategy, because Blacks and Hispanics don't need to be made aware of what the party is doing!
3. So if independents and Democrats are a large part of his voter base, why isn't Ted Cruz doing better since he gets most of the GOP? ANSWER----------> Because the GOP is a paper tiger. Most of its members have left in disgust and became independents. If the GOP establishment was as strong as it claimed, Trump would already be gone along with Cruz. Jeb or Rubio would be leading the field.
4. OK, OK, so if this is true, why is it that the GOP holds congress? ANSWER----------> Because the GOP candidates recently elected ran against BOTH the GOP and Democratic establishment. When they got in office, most were whipped into line. They promised to stand against Obama initiatives, and strengthen the majority who could do it. They didn't, and that is why Trump and Cruz are the number 1 and 2 candidates for the GOP.
5. So then, how does either Trump or Cruz expect to win in a general election? ANSWER-----------> They CAN'T, but they can win the most EVs, and that is all that matters. Doesn't mean they will, but they CAN! I have little doubt that BOTH could lose Utah, but I am confident that either COULD win Penn, which makes it more than a wash. I am also confident that both will win Florida, and for completely different reasons, Ohio. They will both probably win Colorado, and Cruz would win Iowa, while Trump would lose it.
6. So then both Trump and Cruz would win? ANSWER---------> To many variables could cause victory or defeat. What if Trump took Rudy Gulliani as his running mate? Would he win New York? What if either took Ben Carson? Would that affect black voting? How about Carly? Female turnout? To many variables to say what would/could happen, but to insist it is over before anything is even really started, is counting chickens you have or lost to soon.
The establishment of BOTH party's wants everyone to believe we need to make this a REGULAR election; especially on the GOP side. They all know that HRC is weak, so an establishment candidate keeps everything all peachy, keen, in Washington DC no matter which side wins. That is what BOTH party's want, status quo.
Forget about winning or losing for a second, and ask yourselves-----------> If the RNC were to throw BOTH Trump and Cruz under the bus at the convention, who could have status to be installed that could possibly win? Romney? Kasich? Jeb? Rubio? Ryan? You see, they aren't giving you an alternative, they are just lambasting the people most likely to win because they upset their apple cart. DON'T FALL for it! It is to late! It is either Trump or Cruz, and that is it! And if you actually want a chance to win the White House, your only choice is to PUSH one of them into the nomination BEFORE the convention, or their backbones will be altered by being forced to cut a deal to get anointed by the establishment.
It is what it is. Everyone on here who has not yet voted in their primary must do their best to push their candidate over the top BEFORE the convention. If it doesn't happen, we will have either a nobody, or a severely hurt nominee who had to cut a deal to take the banner. We probably would NOT even recognize the Trump or Cruz that came out of that snake pit after tricky Mitch and the boys were done with their demands to award it to them.
And oh, by the way----------> Those of you who work 8, 10, 12 hours a day, I am sure you will stand in line for an hr if you have to for your, and your children/grandchildrens, future. Those of you on the dole? Not so much-) Don't let them take it from you, give it your best effort, because when the smoke clears, don't be one of those who say to themselves............if only I would have done............!
Dr.Traveler
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This is '12 map:
Trump needs 64 Electoral Votes to flip this map. So what states does Trump potentially flip? It's possible he flips Nevada (6) and Florida (29). That's 35. He needs 29 more electoral votes to flip. I have severe doubts Trump could really put New York in play, but if he did, that's the game there. Alternatively he could pick Kasich as his VP which would give him Ohio and then look around the map to see if he can pick up a state here and there to cover the gap.
This also assumes that Trump can hold all the Red states, and I'm not entirely sure that's true. I could see Hillary make a play for Indiana, which went for Obama in '08, as well as North Carolina which went for Obama in '08. Missouri could be in play too. Trump won the Missouri primary by a thin margin when all was said and done.
Short version? The map isn't impossible for Trump. Not easy, but not impossible either.
JakeStarkey
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Trump is vulnerable in GA, NC, IA, and UT (of all places), which would give HRC 48 more EV.This is '12 map:
Trump needs 64 Electoral Votes to flip this map. So what states does Trump potentially flip? It's possible he flips Nevada (6) and Florida (29). That's 35. He needs 29 more electoral votes to flip. I have severe doubts Trump could really put New York in play, but if he did, that's the game there. Alternatively he could pick Kasich as his VP which would give him Ohio and then look around the map to see if he can pick up a state here and there to cover the gap.
This also assumes that Trump can hold all the Red states, and I'm not entirely sure that's true. I could see Hillary make a play for Indiana, which went for Obama in '08, as well as North Carolina which went for Obama in '08. Missouri could be in play too. Trump won the Missouri primary by a thin margin when all was said and done.
Short version? The map isn't impossible for Trump. Not easy, but not impossible either.
JoeB131
Diamond Member
To his credit, Jake has always defended the Weird Mormon Robot.
He was his biggest cheerleader when the rest of the Conservatives floundered from one 'Not-Romney" to the next.
He supported Romney all the way to the 2012 election, and after he lost, still stuck up for the guy.
Frankly, Jake has been more faithful to Romney than most of you people were.
Stop making me say nice things about Jake. Stop it, Dammit!!!
JoeB131
Diamond Member
But is that a good thing? Trump is winning because he touches a nerve in the GOP and the establishment has been unable to offer an alternative.
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