How long before Kurdistan becomes a "Problem"?

[GHook93]

The Kurds want independence for Iraq! They basically have it now. For the most part they have been a success story in Iraq war from the beginning. When the US eventually leaves Iraq, Iraq will have many problems. I believe this will be one for them. The Kurds are buying their time. They know if they tried to separate now, they would have to take on the US with Turkey probably more than happy to help, but when the US leaves, there is very very little disincentive for them to not cut and run. The Iraqi army probably will have its hands filled with keeping the rest of Iraq secure under amongst Shia/Sunni riffes. So I see Kurdistan doing a Kosovo and unilaterally parting from Iraq. They have been building up their economy and most likely military capacities for the day when the US leaves. Honestly they would be stupid not to try it now, since Iraq will be at its weakest when the US leaves!

But see the map below! The Kurds have made claims to more than just the Iraq, they believe a large chunk of Turkey, Iran and small pieces of Syria and Armenia are part of Kurdistan. This could cause a problem, since its unlikely that they will ever be able to get any territory beyond their current borders.

Nevertheless, just as the Palestinians deserve a homeland, the Kurds are just, if not more, as deserving a homeland too. Especially since they have been the victims of genocide by the Turks, Iraqis and Iranians and they are still discriminated against in Turkey, Iran (especially Iran), Iraq and Syria!

http://www.kokhavivpublications.com/help/maps/map.php?id=Kurdistan

Free Kurdistan, reasoning!
Free Kurdistan!: And Babylonia and Sumeria too! - Reason Magazine

 

[GHook93]

Here is the map!

 

[editec]

How long before Kurdistan becomes a "Problem"?

They've been a problem for a mighty long time.

Little Miss Muffet, for example, complained that she had Kurds in her Whey.

 

[GHook93]

They've been a problem for a mighty long time.

Little Miss Muffet, for example, complained that she had Kurds in her Whey.

Funny, owe so funny

If you don't want to address the thread then don't troll it!

 

[editec]

Funny, owe so funny

If you don't want to address the thread then don't troll it!

Can't take the punishment, huh?

The Kurds ARE the way, G.

The Kurds have been in everyone's way since the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne.

Another Asiatic disaster brought to us by the victors of WWI. Another of the multitudes of failings I might add.

The right thing would have been to create that promised land call Kurdistan per the1920 Treaty of Sevres.

SECTION III.
KURDISTAN.
ARTICLE 62.


A Commission sitting at Constantinople and composed of three members appointed by the British, French and Italian Governments respectively shall draft within six months from the coming into force of the present Treaty a scheme of local autonomy for the predominantly Kurdish areas lying east of the Euphrates, south of the southern boundary of Armenia as it may be hereafter determined, and north of the frontier of Turkey with Syria and Mesopotamia, as defined in Article 27, II (2) and (3). If unanimity cannot be secured on any question, it will be referred by the members of the Commission to their respective Governments. The scheme shall contain full safeguards for the protection of the Assyro-Chaldeans and other racial or religious minorities within these areas, and with this object a Commission composed of British, French, Italian, Persian and Kurdish representatives shall visit the spot to examine and decide what rectifications, if any, should be made in the Turkish frontier where, under the provisions of the present Treaty, that frontier coincides with that of Persia.


ARTICLE 63.


The Turkish Government hereby agrees to accept and execute the decisions of both the Commissions mentioned in Article 62 within three months from their communication to the said Government.


ARTICLE 64.


If within one year from the coming into force of the present Treaty the Kurdish peoples within the areas defined in Article 62 shall address themselves to the Council of the League of Nations in such a manner as to show that a majority of the population of these areas desires independence from Turkey, and if the Council then considers that these peoples are capable of such independence and recommends that it should be granted to them, Turkey hereby agrees to execute such a recommendation, and to renounce all rights and title over these areas.


The detailed provisions for such renunciation will form the subject of a separate agreement between the Principal Allied Powers and Turkey.


If and when such renunciation takes place, no objection will be raised by the Principal Allied Powers to the voluntary adhesion to such an independent Kurdish State of the Kurds inhabiting that part of Kurdistan which has hitherto been included in the Mosul vilayet.

source

Now, of course, that solution is too late.

We cannot piss of Turkey, we won't have control over Iraq soon, and Iran isn't likely to give us their territory, either.

 

[GHook93]

Can't take the punishment, huh?

The Kurds ARE the way, G.

The Kurds have been in everyone's way since the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne.

Another Asiatic disaster brought to us by the victors of WWI. Another of the multitudes of failings I might add.

The right thing would have been to create that promised land call Kurdistan per the1920 Treaty of Sevres.


source

Now, of course, that solution is too late.

We cannot piss of Turkey, we won't have control over Iraq soon, and Iran isn't likely to give us their territory, either.

Very true, but I see them pulling away from Iraq in their current smaller state shortly after the US pulls out of Iraq and after a period of temporary chaos in the country! Kurdstan will be independent by 2011 and Iraq probably will fight it, but will have more pressing issues to deal with Iraq as a whole!

Then the question will be if the Kurds will be statisfied with a piece of land that is only a fraction of what they claim Kurdstan should encompass or will they seek more? My gut tells me they will sit tight for a little while, but then radical fractions will provoke Turk and Iran and trouble will begin!

 

[GHook93]

Why do the Kurds get ignored just like they do in this post!

 

[GHook93]

They deserve a home country. They are very close to getting a fraction of what Kurdistan used to be. However, they will have to succeed from Iraq. Suceed from Iraq will probably not be too difficult after the US leaves, but will the hold onto their desires for greater Kurdistan, which encompasses Turkey, Iran and Syria. Probably not. So they will be in struggle for more land, even though they have a free independent country of their own. They will never get the sympathy or coverage that the Pals get though, since it will be Muslim on Muslim meaning the hypocritical Muslim community across Europe will be split or frankly won't give a shit.

 

[Tech_Esq]

They deserve a home country. They are very close to getting a fraction of what Kurdistan used to be. However, they will have to succeed from Iraq. Suceed from Iraq will probably not be too difficult after the US leaves, but will the hold onto their desires for greater Kurdistan, which encompasses Turkey, Iran and Syria. Probably not. So they will be in struggle for more land, even though they have a free independent country of their own. They will never get the sympathy or coverage that the Pals get though, since it will be Muslim on Muslim meaning the hypocritical Muslim community across Europe will be split or frankly won't give a shit.

Forget it. If the Kurds split away from Iraq, the Turks will crush them like a bug. Nobody will even blink. (Hell, the Turks may crush them like a bug anyway.)

 

[GHook93]

Forget it. If the Kurds split away from Iraq, the Turks will crush them like a bug. Nobody will even blink. (Hell, the Turks may crush them like a bug anyway.)

They are pretty self-automnous right now in Iraq!

Now if the Turks crush them are they still going to be crying foul at Israel?

 

[Tech_Esq]

They are pretty self-automnous right now in Iraq!

Now if the Turks crush them are they still going to be crying foul at Israel?

Is there some reason to believe that the Turks are not hypocrites?

The Kurds are not Arabs, the Israelis are not Arabs. The Turks care about keeping their standing among Arab countries. They have already sent a punitive mission into the Kurdish reason. There is no reason to believe that they would not do it again with more force once the US is out. Further there is no reason to think that if the Kurds separate it wouldn't be worse.

 

[GHook93]

Is there some reason to believe that the Turks are not hypocrites?

The Kurds are not Arabs, the Israelis are not Arabs. The Turks care about keeping their standing among Arab countries. They have already sent a punitive mission into the Kurdish reason. There is no reason to believe that they would not do it again with more force once the US is out. Further there is no reason to think that if the Kurds separate it wouldn't be worse.

Hence how long before the Kurds become a problem. I predict 1 month after the US leave Iraq and the Iraqi government is on their own fighting secular violence between Sunnis and Shias, the Kurds will cease their opportunity and declare their independence.

So how long in your opinion will it take for the Kurds to become a problem Turkey, Syria or Iran? Who will Kurdistan's first war be with? Will it be a join Turk, Persia, Syria and/or Iraqi alliance against the Kurds just like in '48 vs Israel?

 

[Neubarth]

Personally, I would like the see the Kurds (The ancient Medes of the Bible) independant. Their ethnic regions in Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran should be unified after we go for regime change in Iran. The more we divide up the larger countries in that region, the less BIG problems we will have.

 

[ekrem]

Hence how long before the Kurds become a problem. I predict 1 month after the US leave Iraq and the Iraqi government is on their own fighting secular violence between Sunnis and Shias, the Kurds will cease their opportunity and declare their independence.

So how long in your opinion will it take for the Kurds to become a problem Turkey, Syria or Iran? Who will Kurdistan's first war be with? Will it be a join Turk, Persia, Syria and/or Iraqi alliance against the Kurds just like in '48 vs Israel?

Hello.
The Kurdish Administration of North-East Iraq will only get indenpendent when regional circumstances allow this to happen.
This means:

- The "Kurdish Administration" becoming economicaly survivable on its own (inclusion of Kirkuk into "Kurdish Administration).
- some sort of inofficial acceptance by a neighbouring country to this independence, where this independent country then interacts with the rest of the world. Either way "Kurdistan" is landlocked. --> Trade routes, opening up of Air- and landspace.

These circumstances did not have arisen.
Kirkuk will stay under authority of the central Iraqi government. This means that the "Kurdish Administration" is in need of the central government for its finances.
Allthough there are ressources within the "Kurdish Administration" itself these do not match an income generation as nearly as to that of what Kirkuk promises. Besides oil there is heavy industry in Kirkuk located.
:

Stratfor has received word that Turkish President Abdullah Gul recently reached a deal with U.S. President George W. Bush on the question of Kirkuk and Turkish military intervention in northern Iraq. In return for the shelving of U.S. plans to hold the Kirkuk referendum, Turkey allegedly has promised not to launch a large-scale military incursion into northern Iraq and instead will stick to cross-border shelling and occasional airstrikes

Free Preview of Members-Only Content | Stratfor

Also you can't compare the situation of Israel to that of the "Kurdish Administration". Totally different story. The GDP of the "Kurdish Administration" is 27 Billion Dollars.
That GDP is 34 times smaller then Turkey, or in other words exactly the size of the Turkish Army Pension Fund. We will not hunger if we stop economical interaction. They will as
About 80 percent of foreign investment in Kurdistan now comes from Turkey.


We also did open a University in the "Kurdish Administration". That University is granted by YÖK (Higher Education Board of Turkey) acceptance. So the diplomas of the graduates from that university are accepted within Turkish economy. Let's face it, the "Kurdish Administration" is built upon ressources. You need there graduates of petro-industry, some economists and agricultury industry. Other branches of industry they must first build-up. For this to happen they do not have the Know-How. So that is a good oportunity for the graduates to work in Turkish economy.

Since 1.1.2009 Turkish state Television does also send our propaganda 24 hours into North-Iraq. The Channel is called TRT-6, or TRT-Ses in Kurdish.
TRT.TELEVÄ°ZYON

The only option for independence is massive US assistance against the will of Turkey. That was a friction between USA and Turkey since 2003. But solved. There will be no independence. Facts on ground do not open a door of independence to pass through. "Kurdish Administration" will interact with the world through Iraqi state. Independence is an "all or nothing" strategy, and it will lead to nothing.

 

[GHook93]

Hello.
The Kurdish Administration of North-East Iraq will only get indenpendent when regional circumstances allow this to happen.
This means:

- The "Kurdish Administration" becoming economicaly survivable on its own (inclusion of Kirkuk into "Kurdish Administration).
- some sort of inofficial acceptance by a neighbouring country to this independence, where this independent country then interacts with the rest of the world. Either way "Kurdistan" is landlocked. --> Trade routes, opening up of Air- and landspace.

These circumstances did not have arisen.
Kirkuk will stay under authority of the central Iraqi government. This means that the "Kurdish Administration" is in need of the central government for its finances.
Allthough there are ressources within the "Kurdish Administration" itself these do not match an income generation as nearly as to that of what Kirkuk promises. Besides oil there is heavy industry in Kirkuk located.
:

Free Preview of Members-Only Content | Stratfor

Also you can't compare the situation of Israel to that of the "Kurdish Administration". Totally different story. The GDP of the "Kurdish Administration" is 27 Billion Dollars.
That GDP is 34 times smaller then Turkey, or in other words exactly the size of the Turkish Army Pension Fund. We will not hunger if we stop economical interaction. They will as

About 80 percent of foreign investment in Kurdistan now comes from Turkey.


We also did open a University in the "Kurdish Administration". That University is granted by YÖK (Higher Education Board of Turkey) acceptance. So the diplomas of the graduates from that university are accepted within Turkish economy. Let's face it, the "Kurdish Administration" is built upon ressources. You need there graduates of petro-industry, some economists and agricultury industry. Other branches of industry they must first build-up. For this to happen they do not have the Know-How. So that is a good oportunity for the graduates to work in Turkish economy.

Since 1.1.2009 Turkish state Television does also send our propaganda 24 hours into North-Iraq. The Channel is called TRT-6, or TRT-Ses in Kurdish.
TRT.TELEVÄ°ZYON

The only option for independence is massive US assistance against the will of Turkey. That was a friction between USA and Turkey since 2003. But solved. There will be no independence. Facts on ground do not open a door of independence to pass through. "Kurdish Administration" will interact with the world through Iraqi state. Independence is an "all or nothing" strategy, and it will lead to nothing.

Right now there is a Kurdistan, which is fraction of the size of anicent Kurdistan, but its located entirely in Iraq. Right now Kurdistan acts independent is almost every way. Do you really believe that when the current Iraqi government will be at its weakest and have more problems with Shia and Sunni infighting, that the Kurds will not cease the opportunity and do a Kosovo type split?

 

[ekrem]

Right now there is a Kurdistan, which is fraction of the size of anicent Kurdistan, but its located entirely in Iraq. Right now Kurdistan acts independent is almost every way. Do you really believe that when the current Iraqi government will be at its weakest and have more problems with Shia and Sunni infighting, that the Kurds will not cease the opportunity and do a Kosovo type split?

The "Kurdish Administration" does not act independently in almost everyway, but it is acting in the context of the new Iraqi constitution which grants them legislative rights over the 3 provinces which they administer. A thank-you present by US for their cooperation.
All in the context of preserving territorial integrity.

Kosovo's security is backed by NATO. Kosovo does also have access via land-territory and water to interact with the world --> Macedonia and Albania. Kosovo's independence is backed by many significant countries worldwide (US) and in the region (EU+Turkey). These states do also guarantee Kosovo's security on ground. You can not compare this to the "Kurdish Administration" in North-Iraq. The door for independence was open for Kosovarians, so they stepped through. In case of Iraq the door is closed by different reasons. And so it will stay as the "Kurdish Administration" is in no way a sort of economical, military and geo-political power which has the ability to force its "design-wishes" upon the region.

 

[GHook93]

Asia Times Online :: Middle East News, Iraq, Iran current affairs

The Kurds are now fearing the day the Americans leave the country? Why is that? The Iraq army is now 500K strong and the government appears to be stable. The Kurds who desire their own state know that it will be difficult now. However, I don't think that will stop them from trying to pull away. Expect war and another slaughter of the Kurds!

 

[Shogun]

We could always give the Kurds Southern Israel for a brand spanking new nation....


surely, SURELY zionists won't react violently to THAT!

 

[auditor0007]

The Kurds will never get independence. That being said, the Iraqis would be wise to allow them some automony within Iraq. Set them up as a state within Iraq. The reason the Shia and Sunni will not allow the Kurds independence is that the Kurds are sitting on a lot of oil. The Sunnis would definitely be against this as the majority of land they occupy has little oil.

Not sure what will happen, but I am pretty certain, Kurdish independence is not in the equation.

 

[Tech_Esq]

The Kurds will never get independence. That being said, the Iraqis would be wise to allow them some automony within Iraq. Set them up as a state within Iraq. The reason the Shia and Sunni will not allow the Kurds independence is that the Kurds are sitting on a lot of oil. The Sunnis would definitely be against this as the majority of land they occupy has little oil.

Not sure what will happen, but I am pretty certain, Kurdish independence is not in the equation.

The Kurds are also Sunni, no? It's just Kurd trumps Sunni for them.